No Jab Lockdown

[Ian]

I think Boris has got the balance right, not dictating to the hospitality industry and allowing the general public assess the risk themselves. By all accounts it seems to be working with people making their own decision not to attend planned parties / functions. The focus at the moment is the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and the new daily number of positive tests we’re seeing. Yesterday saw 78k of positive cases, yet only 10k of those were identified as Omicron, yes, twice that of the previous day. My bigger concern is that still leaves 68k daily positive cases of the previous variants, why should that be when a large majority of the population is double jabbed!!!

[Observer II]

59 minutes ago, Ian said:

I think Boris has got the balance right, not dictating to the hospitality industry and allowing the general public assess the risk themselves. By all accounts it seems to be working with people making their own decision not to attend planned parties / functions. The focus at the moment is the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and the new daily number of positive tests we’re seeing. Yesterday saw 78k of positive cases, yet only 10k of those were identified as Omicron, yes, twice that of the previous day. My bigger concern is that still leaves 68k daily positive cases of the previous variants, why should that be when a large majority of the population is double jabbed!!!

... and, as you say, folk are voting with their feet and NOT using the restaurants;  so the hospitality industry is now begging for Gov financial support to keep them in business.     😷

[Observer II]

2 hours ago, Confused52 said:

But no body buying stuff to allow businesses to pay wages to people filling those those vacancies to pay the taxes. You have to consider the whole economy, it all works, or doesn't, together.

So goes the argument for "national wage", paid for by tax-payers to everyone;  which would allow them to consume, thus keeping the economy going - It would allow for "levelling up", but somehow I can't see the Tories going for it !   It was tried in Finland and apparently failed.    😉

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

So goes the argument for "national wage", paid for by tax-payers to everyone;  which would allow them to consume, thus keeping the economy going - It would allow for "levelling up", but somehow I can't see the Tories going for it !   It was tried in Finland and apparently failed.    😉

It is a daft idea for most normal people.

[Observer II]

Well, your suggesting something close to it - to save the economy ! 😉

[Bill]

Quote

My bigger concern is that still leaves 68k daily positive cases of the previous variants, why should that be when a large majority of the population is double jabbed!!!

I think the answer to that Ian is that vaccinations only reduce the chances of infection and serious illness, so they help but don’t completely prevent it. We know delta quite well, so if cases continue to rise, then it’s probably just due to more indoor mixing during the winter.

Three things I’d like to know….

1 If omicron is set to become dominant, does that mean that Delta will eventually die out?

2 Do the antibodies produced following an omicron infection offer better protection than the current vaccine?

3 And finally, would antibodies made after omicron help against delta?

 

Bill 😊

[Evil Sid]

Any scientific will probably waffle on about various factors affecting the various antibodies produced by each variant and their possible effect on newer strains. They would likely cite historical references to similar epidemics and vaccine versus natural immunity figures until you drown in a sea of facts and figures that become meaningless to anybody who has non scientific background in that particular narrow field.

You could sum it up as follows "sodomy non sapiens".........🤔

[Bill]

Yes Sid, but wouldn’t it be good if the antibodies produced by a less harmful virus could help to eradicate a more serious one? Someone out there must know the answer to this, but I haven’t heard anything.

Always better to live in hope than despair but like the song says, there are more questions than answers.

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

On 12/17/2021 at 6:22 AM, Bill said:

I think the answer to that Ian is that vaccinations only reduce the chances of infection and serious illness, so they help but don’t completely prevent it. We know delta quite well, so if cases continue to rise, then it’s probably just due to more indoor mixing during the winter.

Three things I’d like to know….

1 If omicron is set to become dominant, does that mean that Delta will eventually die out?

2 Do the antibodies produced following an omicron infection offer better protection than the current vaccine?

3 And finally, would antibodies made after omicron help against delta?

 

Bill 😊

Before I give you my opinion on your questions - This is today's data (latest) for Warrington which shows that of the number of positive tests which went to the kind of laboratory that can differentiate between Omicron and Delta in the red line those under the blue line were Omicron. That suggests that Omicron is now the dominant strain in Warrington.

There are positive tests not sent to the Taqpath labs as well and the total positive daily tests from all sources are under the green line.

Q1. If omicron is set to become dominant, does that mean that Delta will eventually die out?

A1. No Until Omicron, or something else is dominant, everywhere on earth Delta could still come back if the immunity against it has waned.

Q2. Do the antibodies produced following an omicron infection offer better protection than the current vaccine?

A2. No, just different. The antibodies target particular genes and sequences if the one they target isn't in the virus they escape attacking. There are different genes for which antibodies are produced. The vaccine targets the S-gene but infection also produce antibodies for other parts such as the N gene. That is why there are two antibody tests in use one of which finds the N antibody and the other the S, That way they can see if you have immunity and whether it came from infection or immunisation.

Q3. And finally, would antibodies made after omicron help against delta?

A3. Well the ones which target common genes between Delta and Omicron would. I believe that the production of these anti-bodies varies between individuals. There is also another mechanism which reacts a bit slower based on T-cells and I don't really know how broad spectrum they are but my understanding is that they may act against a lot of coronaviruses. The antibodies are what act fast, as I understand it, and they are needed to stem the spread of the infection so you don't get seriously ill. However even they don't catch out small infections.

If anyone knows I have made a mistake in my understanding please chip in and correct it as it will help us all.

</boring Sid>

 

[Evil Sid]

Information imparted in a manner that is understandable to even the simplest of people is never boring.

having 25 years experience working for the government in a science lab i have come across some pretty dire gobbledygook in my time,mostly by HR people who can make a eight page document on how to safely turn a light on.

Nullus anxietas as they say in xxxx

[Bill]

Thanks for taking the time to explain that Con. I don’t fully understand everything you say but maybe it does answer my much earlier question as to whether it’s a case of one virus replacing another or existing alongside. The fact that the green line is higher than the total of delta and omicron combined implies that older variants such as the original Wuhan strain probably still exists which is not good news or possibly I’m misinterpreting this.

Maybe the only positive from all this is the increased t cell production which if I read it correctly seem to act as a wide-spread immunity booster, but I suppose only time will tell.

Just one final thing. You seem to be very well informed in these matters, does this come from just reading up on the subject or do you have some background in this?

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

Thanks for taking the time to explain that Con. I don’t fully understand everything you say but maybe it does answer my much earlier question as to whether it’s a case of one virus replacing another or existing alongside. The fact that the green line is higher than the total of delta and omicron combined implies that older variants such as the original Wuhan strain probably still exists which is not good news or possibly I’m misinterpreting this.

Maybe the only positive from all this is the increased t cell production which if I read it correctly seem to act as a wide-spread immunity booster, but I suppose only time will tell.

Just one final thing. You seem to be very well informed in these matters, does this come from just reading up on the subject or do you have some background in this?

 

Bill 😊

The difference between the red line and the green line is the number of positive tests on those days which tested in labs which do not detect S Gene Test Failure directly. The government assumes that the ones that can detect it gives the percentage difference as the number under the the blue line divided by the number between the blue and the red lines as the fraction of cases that are Omicron. All the other cases between blue and red are Delta. There is a full genomic analysis done on a sample but that takes a little longer to get the answers. In the week ending 4th Dec there were 139 successful sequences taken from positive cases in Warrington as that sample and every single one was Delta or a subvariant of it. That was true for the whole of England too but not quite the same ratio of others to the original Delta. The earlier variants were out competed as they in turn will be by Omicron.

I merely read up on the subject but I have the benefit of three kids; one with with a degree in Biochemistry, one in Biology and the other a Chemist who works in a genetic medicine research establishment; I have help.

[Observer II]

Perhaps your family could take over, as things seem to be taking on feel of a disaster movie.  The London Mayor has declared a major incident as hospitals are starting to fill up with covid cases. Meantime, the Met Police have their hands full with an anti-lockdown protest in - London. Seems fiction is taking over from reality.  No doubt Boris will be hanging on to the last minute, in order not to upset his back bench deniers.    😷

[Confused52]

Try this Pre-Christmas parlour game with a Covid-19 flavour!

Cases here are rising but in London they started rising earlier, we do not have demographic data for Warrington that shows the spike yet so let's look at the London Region data:

This is the percentage of cases in London that appear to be Omicron by date of test

 

Now here are the number of cases per 100k inhabitants in the London region averaged over a 7 day period with a curve for each 5 year age band, again in London and by the date that the test was taken, so the dates align with the graph above.

 

The quiz question is simply : given this information what would you do if you were Boris?

[Observer II]

Brought in a full lockdown, two weeks ago. Instead, he'll be waiting for the party season to really spread the joy, or rather virus around.    😷

[Confused52]

38 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Brought in a full lockdown, two weeks ago. Instead, he'll be waiting for the party season to really spread the joy, or rather virus around.    😷

Why, are you sure you have looked at the data and thought about it? 

[Observer II]

I leave "data" to the "experts", and the "experts" (SAGE) are calling for an immediate lockdown.   😷

[Ian]

18 hours ago, Confused52 said:

Try this Pre-Christmas parlour game with a Covid-19 flavour!

Cases here are rising but in London they started rising earlier, we do not have demographic data for Warrington that shows the spike yet so let's look at the London Region data:

This is the percentage of cases in London that appear to be Omicron by date of test

 

Now here are the number of cases per 100k inhabitants in the London region averaged over a 7 day period with a curve for each 5 year age band, again in London and by the date that the test was taken, so the dates align with the graph above.

 

The quiz question is simply : given this information what would you do if you were Boris?

Looks like they should be looking at the booster program and targeting the 20 - 35 and encouraging them to take up the vaccine as it appears to be this age range that are seeing the increased cases

[Confused52]

8 hours ago, Observer II said:

I leave "data" to the "experts", and the "experts" (SAGE) are calling for an immediate lockdown.   😷

That may be what the BBC make you think they are saying but they actually aren't saying that. They are asking for additional measures and it is up to Government to decide what. The talk of a leaked report was to hype up what it said. So the Government Chief Scientist published the advice and no more was said by the media. Funny that!

[Confused52]

3 hours ago, Ian said:

Looks like they should be looking at the booster program and targeting the 20 - 35 and encouraging them to take up the vaccine as it appears to be this age range that are seeing the increased cases

Yup that is why it is open to all adults now I guess. It looks to me like the places that the most infected groups frequent that the lower infected groups don't stand a jolly good chance of being pubs. Especially at this time of year. 

Essentially the same pattern as London is now showing in the Warrington data up to the 14th Dec when we got to 50% Omicron. The biggest rises in cases are in Lymm, Stockton Heath, Appleton, Padgate and Orford at the moment. 

[Observer II]

Well, it looks like more dither from Boris, as he's caught in the headlights of the pandemic;  with no conviction, he's the captain of the ship who knows not to which port he sails, thus no wind is favourable.    

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

Well, it looks like more dither from Boris, as he's caught in the headlights of the pandemic;  with no conviction, he's the captain of the ship who knows not to which port he sails, thus no wind is favourable.    

One does not decide such things as a pandemic response on conviction at all. One looks at data and an understanding of risk. Only "no regrets" actions should be taken on conviction alone and lockdown is not such a stratagem. 

[Observer II]

Far from it, the position is one of principle:  one either believes in the central fact, that transmission is from person to person, assisted by close proximity and lack of personal protection OR one believes that personal "freedoms"  are a priority, even if they facilitate spread.  Unfortunately, there is no such thing as devine justice, whereby only the latter succumb to the virus, it takes the innocent along with the guilty.    😷

[Confused52]

14 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Far from it, the position is one of principle:  one either believes in the central fact, that transmission is from person to person, assisted by close proximity and lack of personal protection OR one believes that personal "freedoms"  are a priority, even if they facilitate spread.  Unfortunately, there is no such thing as devine justice, whereby only the latter succumb to the virus, it takes the innocent along with the guilty.    😷

No. This one doesn't have to choose one way or the other as you suggest. It is incumbent upon those who govern, and thereby control the lives of others, to act in a pragmatic way which imparts the the most good to the most people. To make pragmatic and proportionate decisions one needs to analyse the situation rationally and repeatedly. Reaching for the crutch of dogma is not for our leaders and we should be grateful that in general they avoid such trivialisation of important matters. That the media so often criticise about prevarication or U-turns shows the weakness of their analysis and why it should be ignored.

What you suggest is a binary decision based wholly on dogma and a Government should not do that because it acts for millions with differing views. When we have data on hospitalisations in London and they can be adjusted for age, sex and vaccination status there will be a chance of working out what will happen in the rest of the country. We aren't there yet and deciding on dogma to lockdown has costs in health too.

The no regret strategies that already seem to be apparent include do not be too hasty in seeing grand children and young adults at Christmas. Only go to pubs that are frequented by older people, especially if they have retired.

[Observer II]

Most grumpies will be under a self imposed lockdown, at least those who wish to live a while longer.  Restrictions can operate like the accelerator of a car,  so depending on the circumstances, as advised by the science, they can vary according to conditions, but still require degrees of imposition.  Seems Mz Krankie has a better grip on things than Boris, who is now the prisoner of the Bolsonaro Brigade.