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Everything posted by Confused52

  1. That is right but I didn't say anything about them all being the same, one figure never applies to biological processes does it? Now if that is all you want to comment on and not the information in the graphs , if so it might seem that you want to argue not discuss. Shall we try again?
  2. Well if you know better than the outcomes in the SAGE CO-CIN data I bow to your superior knowledge. The times apply to a serious case and probably mostly to over 80s whom are generally not actually treated by the NHS because they are too frail. The point is that you cannot expect to see the changes in hospitalisation and death rates starting to go up yet. I await your next opinion and indeed invite it.
  3. This is the latest data on the demographic distribution of cases in Warrington in the public domain. No doubt the council have better data. Each line is a 5 year age group and the number is the rolling rate (7 days) of cases per 100000 of that Age group in Warrington. Each line of data is on a logarithmic scale so it separates the lines out vertically in order to see the trends. Where a line has the rate zero it is not shown, that is why 65 to 69 seems to start only on 1st June and 90+ age group is missing altogether. there are generally 6 or so days for one person to pass it to the next. So
  4. that is a very good question to which I have not heard a full answer. What I have heard suggests that the delta variant has partial vaccine escape so something about the genes that make it up is not as well matched with the antibodies produced by the vaccine for the original virus. That will I think apply equally to antibodies produced by natural exposure to earlier versions of the disease. I think that of the two options you set out that counts as the mathematical statistic. I have not heard that it is a characteristic of any individuals or demographics that reduce the effectiveness. The info
  5. Shame you don't recognise it when you write it.
  6. You have to listen properly. The vaccines are not very effective at stopping transmission from person to person, only 30% or so. The vaccines are efficient at preventing serious illness and death. However with the delta variant they are only 80% efficient in preventing illness and death even after two doses. So of the large number vaccinated with two doses one in 5 is at risk from the delta variant. So things are worse now because of the delta variant, not because anyone has changed their mind. We we were always told it depended on there being no problem variants, but we have one now that has
  7. Please try not to use bogus statistics. On the last day for which data is so far published the positivity rate for the previous 7 days in Warrington was 2.5 % (6th June), 11 days earlier (26th May) it had been 0.3%. The number of tests in the town on the 7 days leading up to the 6th June was 6172 and the number in the seven days to 26 May was 6055. The new cases in the 7 days to 6th June was 167 and up to 26 May was 24. So you had a theory about tests but it wasn't right was it? There we more positive than the extra tests week on week, a rational person would interpret that as something to wor
  8. They are only looking at current cases. Hospital acquired infections have been counted for ages but not reported.
  9. Your problem is that the real figure may be a fraction but it will be a big fraction, probably close to 1. Sorry but the heavy lifting can be seen to have been done by social distance. Look at the data not the conspiracy theorists.
  10. There are two solutions and the detail of how to fix the problem was to be agree in a joint committee after Brexit, but not before. The EU way is to get the UK to agree to dynamic standards where we just continue to follow their standards for everything to be import from GB to NI. We rejected this in the main negotiation so this is a rear guard action. The other for the EU to accept that the standards that were in place the moment before Brexit and we still follow today should be recognised as equivalent standards so no checks are needed unless we diverge from EU standards in future. The latt
  11. It isn't nonsense, and I am getting fed up too! The reason for waiting is to see if the link between cases going up, hospital admissions going up (and seeing what the attack ratio is like) and the relationship between hospital admissions and ICU admissions and finally the relationship between sever illness and death ( related to the infection fatality ratio). All of these could be different from the B.1.1.7 strain and without knowing the values for the B.1.617.2 strain one cannot predict whether allowing increases in R from further relaxation will cause significant deaths, and or overwhel
  12. The common cold has never had a single cause. It is a set of symptoms which are provoked by Rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, parainfluenza viruses, Respiratory Syctial virus and alpha-coronaviruses. (SARS is a Beta-coronavirus). At least 200 different viruses can produce the symptoms that are diagnosed as a common cold. The answer to your precise question is unanswerable because there will be so many more than that over the millennia.
  13. In most cases they are very illiberal and merely think of themselves as liberal. I am not prepared to accept being told what to think by these people especially not the Brainwashing Broadcasting Corporation.
  14. Even better he wants to intercept them exactly as they are crossing the border and replenish the patrol while the interceptor takes the passengers back after due process of checking for real asylum seekers (during which UK waters are not actually entered although UK law applies.)
  15. Obs, The only consensus I have seen in SAGE documents is how to assess the various way of measuring R, that is to say how to interpret uncertainty in the metrics. The advice to government is in the minutes which is the decision of the Chairman, that is Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty working as co-chairs. Civil Servants also attend the meetings and take their own views back to cabinet Office and Number 10 etc. The border between the UK and France is supposed to be half way, if a boat is in UK waters the nearest port will be deemed to the English. For the the nearest port to be Fren
  16. Science doesn't work by simple majority or consensus - that is also why climate change is total BS. What and whose law would that be? It sounds like piracy. UKBF are investigating that allegation by the way, it could turn out to be untrue. As for Dunkirk analogies, except in your head we are not at war with France or an occupying power in France! Get a grip on reality.
  17. end lockdown in the safest manner, based on the scientific advice It is trying to do that, The problem is you seem to want positive action and to follow the best scientific advice at the same time. The best scientific advice is not clear to the best action is doing nothing, You do not want to follow scientific advice at all you just want to follow the scientific advice you like and have more restrictions. What action should the government take on stopping immigrants after they have left France. We have a UN treaty obligation to ensure that they are not bona-fide refugees before retu
  18. I take it you are mis- reporting Yahoo: "A two-week delay to the planned easing of restrictions in England on June 21 is reportedly being considered after the number of people in the country with Covid-19 rose by 75 per cent." What you claim may happen but it hasn't yet according to the BBC, Sky and Number 10 Downing Street, PHE and the Dept. of Health.
  19. Yes from June 13th. The network will be available on Freeview channel 236, Sky HD, Virgin Media HD, YouView channel 236 and Freesat channel 216.
  20. It didn't originate in Thailand, it was first detected there, in state quarantine of a traveller from Egypt! The top countries for incidence are below and Thailand has only seen the original case! Country Number of Sequences Germany 148, USA 144, Switzerland 62, Egypt 33, Belgium 26, France 18, Denmark 16, Italy 14, Sweden 11, Ireland 10, Norway 6, Austria 6, Canada 4. It has been here a while, the answer to your question is probably Eurostar! Date Region Number of VUI-21MAY-01 cases 23/03/2021 West M
  21. No, the term variant first detected in India is associated in the PANGO database metadata with B.1.617.2. That code approved by the Indian Government is the PANGO code for the variant and the metadata is intrinsically linked to it. Tough.
  22. Take a look at: COVID-19 Cases in Texas (coronavirusintexas.org) Case average over 1000 a day on average, equivalent UK number for that population would be about 575. Average deaths per day in Texas almost 30 compared to the equivalent in UK for size of population in Texas 4 per day. It look as if the claim that is all over in Texas is not something that we should just accept.
  23. It is probably because if you encounter an infected person they can contaminate the outside of the mask. Consequently it is quite rational to only take the mask off when you are in a position to wash your hands after doing so an being able to leave the mask to dry somewhere safe. We did get that advice early on in wearing masks. The probability of encountering an infected person is lower but careful people will be in that routine now in order to maximise their own protection. Exactly as you have suggested all along but now seem to have changed your mind! The same logic applies to those who put
  24. See this version from UCL Microsoft Word - Full report 34_final.docx (filesusr.com) The one you looked at was the Corsair project and the leader Prof Susan Michie is actually at UCL which produces a different study. I believe that there are different definitions of compliance between the various studies. I really don't have the time to understand them and the differences. I have looked at all of them before and lost the will to live!
  25. Are you sure that you don't mean Gruinard where they released Anthrax, it was cleaned in 1986 and declared safe with no cases in the test flock of sheep on the island since 2007. Smallpox would have been a strange choice given that smallpox was the very first disease against which vaccination was tried.
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