Indian Variant ?

[Observer II]

While the newscasters and politicians skip around the issue, it's fairly obvious which demographic has caused the latest spike in Covid infections -IE  immigrant families from the Indian sub-continent, visiting their roots and returning un-screened to the UK.   So while we've got the threat of delayed "hugs" for those who can't wait for a release from lock down, common sense suggests that relaxations to lock down cease immediately,  and the obvious causes of this surge are acted upon, such as a draconian restriction on International Air travel and the enforced testing and isolation of all travellers.  Throughout this pandemic HMG have proved to be generally incompetent with counter-action being too little too late throughout, and no doubt this will be identified by the pending public inquiry into the pandemic. Lessons have clearly not been learnt or are not being learnt, allowing the trauma to go on and on.    😠    😷

[Bill]

It seems to me that given we have such a high number of people with families in India that it was inevitable that this would reach the UK at some point and it would be unrealistic to expect even with the tightest quarantining measures to keep it out. Plus as much as you might like it, we can’t simply ban everyone form India from coming here.

Be that as it may, it’s here and it looks like it’s better than the Kent variant at spreading so eventually it probably will become the most common but that’s not the end of the world given where we are now unless any of the current vaccines prove to be ineffective against it and current thinking is that that's unlikely. 

The fact that the numbers have doubled in places like Oldham and Blackburn sounds worse than it is because they’re considerably lower than they were previously. Look at the Warrington figures where one day last week we were well above the national average and people were expressing concern when in reality the numbers were next to nothing. Then a couple of days later we had no deaths and no new cases.

So overall, nationally we’re doing good and closing down everything now would pee off a lot of people but only cause a slight delay in the spread of this new variant.

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

Do you know how many variants have been found to Covid-19 so far? Literally thousands of them, so don't you think that it's past time we stopped panicking every time a "new" one is discovered, accept that the vaccination programme is a success, realise that we are going to have to live with this disease being around and get back to normal. If you want to lock yourself away don't let me stop you.

[Bill]

Exactly, same disease just slightly more infectious and slightly different name. As a country we’re in front of the game and the impact here will be nothing like that seen in India who were unprepared and well behind with the vaccinations.

My initial thought was they need to make an exception in areas where the variant is bad and hold back on relaxing things. But thinking about it more, it wouldn’t prevent it spreading, no more than you could stop a common cold from spreading.

My bet that we don’t have another major spike causing another lockdown still stands.

 

Bill 😊

 

[Observer II]

We'll see   😷

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, asperity said:

Do you know how many variants have been found to Covid-19 so far? Literally thousands of them, so don't you think that it's past time we stopped panicking every time a "new" one is discovered, accept that the vaccination programme is a success, realise that we are going to have to live with this disease being around and get back to normal. If you want to lock yourself away don't let me stop you.

They don't panic every time a new one is discovered at all. They only designate a fraction of new variants as Variants of Concern and then only because they are significantly more transmissible or evade the vaccine. We all know that we have to live with the virus but we have a problem if the tools we have will not work and we have to turn back to Non-pharmaceutical Interventions. 

[Confused52]

2 hours ago, Observer II said:

While the newscasters and politicians skip around the issue, it's fairly obvious which demographic has caused the latest spike in Covid infections -IE  immigrant families from the Indian sub-continent, visiting their roots and returning un-screened to the UK.   So while we've got the threat of delayed "hugs" for those who can't wait for a release from lock down, common sense suggests that relaxations to lock down cease immediately,  and the obvious causes of this surge are acted upon, such as a draconian restriction on International Air travel and the enforced testing and isolation of all travellers.  Throughout this pandemic HMG have proved to be generally incompetent with counter-action being too little too late throughout, and no doubt this will be identified by the pending public inquiry into the pandemic. Lessons have clearly not been learnt or are not being learnt, allowing the trauma to go on and on.    😠    😷

Well Captain Hindsight strikes again. I has been illegal to travel for other than essential reasons out of the UK since early March. So they have been in India some time and since their return appear to be behaving without due caution. Why that is the governments fault is beyond my comprehension. I look forward to you being thoroughly disappointed by the inquiry which will doubtless find that the government has scrupulously follows the science and not just made it up and guessed.

[Observer II]

Capt Forsight actually, if you read my posts from 2019 on the subject.   So it's been illegal to travel has it - tell it to the scores of so-called influencers, jetting off to foreign beaches to photograph themselves for their on-line supporters, or the celebs jetting off on holiday. As for the Indians, it is not uncommon for relatives to stay in India for extended periods,  but there was a general scrabble to leave India when there mortality rate sky rocketed, and they had added street lighting in the form of funeral pyres. It seems they descended on places like Bolton,  where they could crowd into dwellings of multi generational families.   No testing at the airports, no escorted trips to places of isolation and quarantine.   Slack and sloppy administration indeed, but I'm not expecting an Inquiry to identify their miserable performance, as the record of such Inquiries tends to be coated with white wash.   😷

[Confused52]

38 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Capt Forsight actually, if you read my posts from 2019 on the subject.   So it's been illegal to travel has it - tell it to the scores of so-called influencers, jetting off to foreign beaches to photograph themselves for their on-line supporters, or the celebs jetting off on holiday. As for the Indians, it is not uncommon for relatives to stay in India for extended periods,  but there was a general scrabble to leave India when there mortality rate sky rocketed, and they had added street lighting in the form of funeral pyres. It seems they descended on places like Bolton,  where they could crowd into dwellings of multi generational families.   No testing at the airports, no escorted trips to places of isolation and quarantine.   Slack and sloppy administration indeed, but I'm not expecting an Inquiry to identify their miserable performance, as the record of such Inquiries tends to be coated with white wash.   😷

You may want to live in a state modelled on communist China but I don't.

[Observer II]

😄     Funny you should mention China - they're now Covid free, business as usual, after giving it to the rest of the world.    😷

[Bill]

At the start of all this, you talked a lot about the need to achieve heard immunity but back then letting it rip would have created a situation similar to what we saw in India so we had lockdowns instead. But now the vast majority of susceptible people have been vaccinated, it’s maybe now not that bad an idea.

The way I see it is that we all have to build up an immunity, whether by catching it or being vaccinated but to do so in a way that doesn’t kill off too many people and now we’re in just about the best position to do this. We know that most of the under 40s don’t get it too bad and they are the main ones left so no big issue there. That just leaves those that refused the vaccine, and they’ll have to think again or take their chances.

If we do this, the number of infections will increase but not so much as to create major problems for the NHS and the sooner we get through this, the sooner we can get back to proper normal life. It might delay stage4 a bit and masks and distancing might go on a bit longer but we’ve more or less accepted these now so it’s no big deal.

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

12 hours ago, Confused52 said:

They don't panic every time a new one is discovered at all. They only designate a fraction of new variants as Variants of Concern and then only because they are significantly more transmissible or evade the vaccine. We all know that we have to live with the virus but we have a problem if the tools we have will not work and we have to turn back to Non-pharmaceutical Interventions. 

You are talking about the government and their advisors. If you read what I posted I said "we" need to stop panicking, meaning the general populace (and Obs) led by the media who see their job as being to create a story out of anything they can get their grubby hands on, even if it means making the gullible scared of their own shadows. The government say that a new variant has been discovered that "may" be more transmissible or deadly than others and the media shout "we're all going to die!"

[Bill]

Seems like Obs sees the Indian variant as being a go back to Old Kent Road situation when in reality it’s just another variant rather than a completely new disease. I’m no expert but I would have thought that building up an immunity through infection or vaccination would offer some basic protection against most if not all of the thousands of variants and so while the situation could be said to be bad, it’s not that bad as to cause panic.

 

Bill 😊

[Latchford Locks]

2 hours ago, asperity said:

You are talking about the government and their advisors. If you read what I posted I said "we" need to stop panicking, meaning the general populace (and Obs) led by the media who see their job as being to create a story out of anything they can get their grubby hands on, even if it means making the gullible scared of their own shadows. The government say that a new variant has been discovered that "may" be more transmissible or deadly than others and the media shout "we're all going to die!"

[Latchford Locks]

Being totally honest at my age it's not a case of when but what will be the cause of my demise in say(being optimistic)the coming 10 years ?

What will be the grim reapers final coup de grace that's sends me onto the next leg of my eternal journey.

So Indian variant or a corporation bus whatever will be will be.

[Observer II]

I said over 12 months ago, that the more authoritarian and decisive Nations will prove to be the more successful in surviving this pandemic;   most Western Nations have been behind the curve throughout.   In early April, HMG decided to place India on the red list,  but then dithering BoJo delayed implimentation for 3 days;   3 days in which thousands fled India to the UK, bringing with them this variant.  Latch, it's not a case of fear of death, but of watching total incompetance in action; like watching a slow car crash; and being able to say "I told you so", is no compensation.    😷

[Latchford Locks]

5 minutes ago, Observer II said:

  Latch, it's not a case of fear of death, but of watching total incompetance in action; like watching a slow car crash; and being able to say "I told you so", is no compensation.    😷

Or in my case incompetence will probably mean ..................... 😳

[asperity]

Do you not think that getting through this pandemic with only 0.2% of the population dying (the average age of those dying being above the normal life expectancy anyway) counts as being successful Obs? Around 0.8% of the population die every year by the way.

[Observer II]

Tell that to the relatives of those that have died.   The question is, were those deaths avoidable, and to me the answer is yes.   😷

[asperity]

All those deaths were avoidable Obs? Talk sense. Everyone dies of something, we have all lost friends and relations at some point in our lives but we don't immediately point to the government and shout "why didn't you do something to avoid this?" do we? Or perhaps you do expect the government to wrap you in cotton wool and protect you from the big nasty world out there. Perhaps there are things that could have been done differently. Perhaps PHE and the NHS could have done their jobs better and protected more vulnerable people than they did. Perhaps they could have followed their own pandemic planning, including having all the beds, equipment and protective clothing ready, rather than ditching it when a real pandemic turned up. Perhaps if the government had restricted itself to advising us on social distancing, personal hygeine and using common sense and leaving us to it the outcome might have been better, bearing in mind the storm of undiagnosed ailments that are still to be seen.

As for "tell that to the relatives of those that have died", that is pathetic beyond reason.

[Observer II]

No, I expect Governments to be prepared for threats to their populations, and impliment any necessary counter measures; not some bovine drivel about accepting loss due to incompetance.    😷

[asperity]

9 minutes ago, Observer II said:

No, I expect Governments to be prepared for threats to their populations, and impliment any necessary counter measures; not some bovine drivel about accepting loss due to incompetance.    😷

Spoken like an expert 🙄

[Bill]

Seems the only good thing coming out of this is that a lot of those in these areas who were vaccine hesitant are now coming forward but it’s debatable whether just carrying on as normal with the vaccination process will be sufficient to prevent localised spikes.

There’s been an argument for some time that once the bulk of the over fifties had been done, it may be wiser to change from a strict age-related process to one targeting areas or sections of society at greatest risk. This was pointed out this morning when someone suggested it was stupid to be using up vaccines on Cornish folk where the risk of infection is almost zero when it could be used in places like Bolton.

There’s another point that I think could have helped in view of limited vaccine availability. We know that many of the younger generation could well have unknowingly been infected and so have some natural immunity, but I’ve not heard of any attempt to identify these. It may not make a huge difference but people with natural immunity could be put to the back of the queue and the vaccines go to the more vulnerable.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

This pandemic is global Bill,  so until vaccine coverage matches the risk,  it'll be a bit like pumping out flood water, if more water keeps pouring in from outside.    😷   It's now estimated that during BoJo's 3 days of dither and delay in early April, before banning arrivals from India, around 20,000 flew into the UK.    This from a Country that has half burnt and half buried bodies floating down the Ganges, and folk covering themselves in cow dung, to protect against the virus.    Meanwhile, back in London we have mass protests against lockdowns by "let it spread" covidiots, plus demos by ethnic Palastinians against the Israeli Gov.    With such ignorant defeatism, I guess it would be easy to go with the flow and claim it's "God's will" and start believing in an afterlife.  😷

[Bill]

That’s not a great analogy but understand what you mean. The fact that it’s still raining a bit doesn’t alter the fact that we should be pumping where the main floods are and not where it’s just a bit damp. We can’t stop the virus just like we can’t stop weather, but we can at least mitigate the damage it causes.

 

Bill 😊