Indian Variant ?

[Observer II]

In theory Bill, yes; but in the last attempt at localised lockdowns, it didn't seem to work, did it ?    😷

[Bill]

I’m not suggesting lockdowns Obs but just a higher number of vaccinations and nobody could argue that wouldn’t be effective.

Makes sense to put the pumps where the water is rising rather than where it’s receding even if it’s still raining. 😊

 

Bill 😊

[Latchford Locks]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

. 😊

 l 😊

 

2 hours ago, Bill said:

I’m not suggesting lockdowns Obs but just a higher number of vaccinations and nobody could argue that wouldn’t be effective.

Makes sense to put the pumps where the water is rising rather than where it’s receding even if it’s still raining. 😊

 

Bill 😊

 Matt Hancock said early lab data showed vaccines remained effective.(huge sigh of relief 🙃)

He said the majority of those in hospital in Bolton - a hotspot for the Indian variant - were unvaccinated.

[asperity]

2 hours ago, Observer II said:

This pandemic is global Bill,  so until vaccine coverage matches the risk,  it'll be a bit like pumping out flood water, if more water keeps pouring in from outside.    😷   It's now estimated that during BoJo's 3 days of dither and delay in early April, before banning arrivals from India, around 20,000 flew into the UK.    This from a Country that has half burnt and half buried bodies floating down the Ganges, and folk covering themselves in cow dung, to protect against the virus.    Meanwhile, back in London we have mass protests against lockdowns by "let it spread" covidiots, plus demos by ethnic Palastinians against the Israeli Gov.    With such ignorant defeatism, I guess it would be easy to go with the flow and claim it's "God's will" and start believing in an afterlife.  😷

Talking sense at last Obs, Alleluja!!

[Observer II]

No Asp; I was extracting the urine ;   out of the sceptics.    😷

[asperity]

Important news from India: The Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi says on basis of an observational study that 97.38 per cent of those vaccinated were protected from the COVID-19 infection and the chances of hospitalisation after the vaccination are 0.06 per cent

[Latchford Locks]

The new variant it appears is no major problem to vaccinated people.

OK 

It's not rocket science .. make vaccination compulsory except where there is a very good reason for people not to have it.

Or am I being to simplistic ? 

 

[Bill]

I don’t think compulsory vaccinations could ever happen without creating riots, An easier option would be to make it so that you need proof of vaccination before you can get into certain places and that way the queue would be full of the anti-vaxers.

The vaccine certainly works though because although they’re behind the curve with their rollout, their death rate, despite the horrific scenes we see, is a far lower percentage of what we experienced here. Their population is twenty times that of the UK, but their highest recorded daily death rate was only twice that of the UK’s. Amazing.

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

54 minutes ago, asperity said:

Important news from India: The Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi says on basis of an observational study that 97.38 per cent of those vaccinated were protected from the COVID-19 infection and the chances of hospitalisation after the vaccination are 0.06 per cent

The problem with that is that the Indian variant of concern B.1.617.2 is not the prevalent variant even in India as yet. On the 6th May the prevalent variant in india according to INSACOG their newly established version of COGSUK was the Kent variant B.1.117.  I do not take anythng from the hospital report in Delhi other than it is advertising for a private hospital's vaccination service.

[Bill]

From what I understand the variant depends on the area. In the north it’s our “Kent” variant while in more southerly regions it’s the “Indian”. Their new infection rate seems to have peaked now so things should start getting better over the coming months.

If the vaccines are as effective with both these variants then we shouldn’t really have too much to worry about.

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

It seems to me that any information that seems to give a positive slant to our Covid problems has people racing to shoot it down as "fake" or "misleading" or "propaganda". Why is that I wonder? There are a lot of pessimists around.

[Confused52]

57 minutes ago, Bill said:

I don’t think compulsory vaccinations could ever happen without creating riots, An easier option would be to make it so that you need proof of vaccination before you can get into certain places and that way the queue would be full of the anti-vaxers.

The vaccine certainly works though because although they’re behind the curve with their rollout, their death rate, despite the horrific scenes we see, is a far lower percentage of what we experienced here. Their population is twenty times that of the UK, but their highest recorded daily death rate was only twice that of the UK’s. Amazing.

 

Bill 😊

Based on comparable age distribution data one would expect their death rate compared to the UK to be less than 5 times because their population distribution is much younger than ours. Their census data has two less 5 year bands than UK data and the Infection fatality rate is therefore underestimated for the UK  at a 5 to 1 ratio India to UK. Given their lower overall population density it seems that a death rate only 2 times the UK rate is not too much of a surprise. Putting very old people in close proximity to each other is less common there than here!

There you see Asp that I do as I said - I check the data with official data, the sequencing authority for India and the Indian census. One stood up the other didn't. I don't know about the case distribution that Bill mentioned because the INSACOG data is not robust enough to show whether it is true. Very few countries have data that is as useful for decision making as does the UK.

[Bill]

It’s all well and good looking at official statistics but what it doesn’t show is the fact that many here tend to put elderly parents in care homes while the majority of Indians I believe traditionally look after their elderly within the family group and thereby put them at increase the risk of infection.

That may or may not affect the numbers but the way it seems to me is that they have got off lightly, most probably due to the vaccinations that although slow, was taking place while infections were still rising. In the UK we had to rely on lockdown measures to turn the tide and only when the rates were falling did we start the vaccination process.

As for the geographical info, that was just something I saw as a rough image while looking at lineages. Can't find it now.

 

Bill 😊

[Davy51]

I think it has to be acknowledged that the US, UK , Brazil & Europe were infected before vaccines were in place whereas some other countries have been able to take advantage ,because they were infected later, of vaccines  becoming available at earlier stages of their infections.

[Bill]

I agree Davy. It’s almost impossible to draw comparisons given so many things affect the final outcome on top of when the vaccinations started.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Just seen photos of the Airport, with the headline, " UK outgoing travellers mix with incoming travellers from red listed Countries"  - sounds like organised chaos to me.        😷

[Confused52]

On 5/16/2021 at 4:23 PM, Bill said:

As for the geographical info, that was just something I saw as a rough image while looking at lineages. Can't find it now.

 

Bill 😊

I found a breakdown of percentages from the six Indian sequencing labs and it confirmed what you said the 617 variant was dominant everywhere but somewhat less in the south, only one test centre though. The national prevalence of 617 was over 65%. 

[Confused52]

2 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Just seen photos of the Airport, with the headline, " UK outgoing travellers mix with incoming travellers from red listed Countries"  - sounds like organised chaos to me.        😷

Airports are designed to avoid that you know. It is why Arrivals and Departures are kept apart.

[Latchford Locks]

11 minutes ago, Confused52 said:

Airports are designed to avoid that you know. It is why Arrivals and Departures are kept apart.

I reckon obs reads The Star 😆

[Bill]

Sounds like the newspapers looking to create a story. Chances are that it was just a picture from the airport departures so we shouldn’t be surprised to see some Indian looking folk amongst the crowds. They might be heading out to India rather than Portugal, but they’d only be mixing in departures.  

As Con rightly says, most airports keep arrivals and departures separate.

 

Bill 😊

[Latchford Locks]

3 minutes ago, Latchford Locks said:

I reckon obs reads The Star 😆

[Davy51]

Didn't the Sport find Maid Marian's knickers once ? Great investigative reporting.

[Bill]

Nice one Latchford. Where do you keep getting all these images from.

 

Bill

[Evil Sid]

16 hours ago, Davy51 said:

Didn't the Sport find Maid Marian's knickers once ? Great investigative reporting.

They were either in the B52 bomber that landed on the moon or in the house next door to the chippie that Elvis was working in.

[Latchford Locks]

19 hours ago, Bill said:

Nice one Latchford. Where do you keep getting all these images from.

 

Bill

😊