Remote Learning ?

[Observer II]

What's the problem with remote learning ?    Hasn't the Open University operated like this for decades, with correspondence courses and presumably now on line ?    😷

[asperity]

I haven't the remotest idea........................................................😉

[Davy51]

I think probably the main problem with remote learning is that not all families can manage without going out to work so there is no one to stay at home & supervise a home schooled child. I could also see a problem with a parent maintaining the controlled learning that a face to face teacher can.

Unfortunately, no matter what HMG decides is best ,opposition parties will always find the negatives to fuel their moaning.

[asperity]

33 minutes ago, Davy51 said:

I think probably the main problem with remote learning is that not all families can manage without going out to work so there is no one to stay at home & supervise a home schooled child. I could also see a problem with a parent maintaining the controlled learning that a face to face teacher can.

Unfortunately, no matter what HMG decides is best ,opposition parties will always find the negatives to fuel their moaning.

Quite. Captain Hindsight was at it again today when answering Boris' statement. He went back to last March and started going over all the mistakes the government has made, as if that was going to help one iota. We should be thankful he isn't in charge to be honest, we're in enough trouble as it is.

[Latchford Locks]

48 minutes ago, Davy51 said:

 

Unfortunately, no matter what HMG decides is best ,opposition parties will always find the negatives to fuel their moaning.

We could call it the Observer 2 factor

 

[Observer II]

Tut tut, I think I've called it right throughout this pandemic (read the topics);   just a pity most folk are so myopic.      😷    From the get go, most Governments have been behind the curve, and provided too little, too late.    😷

[Davy51]

Governments around the world can only be reactive in this pandemic unless someone actually finds the root cause.

[Observer II]

No Dave, the virus spreads by human movement and contact; clamp down on those factors as far as is possible and you've got a chance of getting ahead of the virus.  Since this thing started in 2019, we've had folk still flying around the world, no screening of entrants to the UK; in out, shake it all about lockdowns;  and we still have folk whining about mental health and civil liberties. Time to get real, this thing kills people.    😠   😷

[asperity]

The government has just announced that people travelling to the UK need their heads examining before they are allowed entry.

[Bill]

We’re probably the worst infected country at the moment so people from lessor infected countries are probably a lessor risk than someone travelling from Kent. It’s all down to people, but with 30% of the population classed as essential workers and excluded from the lockdown, with that many people moving around it’s bound to continue to spread the virus.  

As for the kids missing a few weeks of schooling, well it’s not exactly the end of the world that some make it out to be (IMO). I can’t remember much of what I was taught as a youngster and left school with only modest results but like most people I acquired most of my knowledge throughout my life.

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

We're nowhere near worst infected Bill, only 27th when you count cases (i.e. positive tests, not hospitalisations) per million population. Plus we are testing a lot more people.

As far as schools go, when you and I were at school there was a good chance that most kids got to the age of 16 with a fair grounding in reading, writing and arithmetic. Unfortunately you can't say the same these days, with a lot of today's kids the only "R" they have a good grounding in is rights.

[Bill]

I don’t know where you manage to get half your bonkers information from Asp because when I look at the most up to date info, it lists the UK as having the fifth highest death toll on the planet, beaten only by countries whose populations are many times that of the UK. Even in the single day rate, we rank second, only beaten by the USA which has about four times more people. I think it’s time to get a newer PC Asp as yours seems to be running months too slow 😊 In any case, ranking numbers wasn’t what I was talking about but the logic of restricting entry into the UK from counties with less of a problem, but at least we seem to agree on the education issue.

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

The "bonkers information" I got was in answer to your statement that the UK is the "worst infected" nation in the world, which is nowhere near correct. As for the death toll figure, this is highly dependent on how the numbers are collated (deaths "from Covid" or deaths "with Covid" etc) and how scrupulous other countries are in collating them. And if you believe the numbers claimed by the likes of China I've got a bridge to sell you. And here's another point, if the numbers of deaths in the UK (which are running marginally above the normal death rate for the time of year) then the death rates in the rest of the world must be so low as to not present a problem. Statistics and damn lies eh 😉.

[Observer II]

Seems BoJo's dithering and last minute decision making on schools, has cost ££££'s in food waste of prepared school meals.     😷

[Confused52]

1 minute ago, Observer II said:

Seems BoJo's dithering and last minute decision making on schools, has cost ££££'s in food waste of prepared school meals.     😷

A drop in the ocean compared to oh so many things. Has BoJo told you what to have for your lunch today. He seems to be responsible for much more than I ever understood these days,

[Observer II]

The suppliers based their deliveries on his word that schools would reopen - they've wasted food, their money, and it's down to the PM's obsession with an elusive normality.    😷

[asperity]

It's nothing compared to what restaurants, pubs and breweries have had to chuck out.

[Confused52]

5 minutes ago, Observer II said:

The suppliers based their deliveries on his word that schools would reopen - they've wasted food, their money, and it's down to the PM's obsession with an elusive normality.    😷

Stop blaming the government for everything - it is an obsession, albeit shared by many. They will not have lost money because they will bill the schools under their contract. They will they spend less in the coming few weeks it isn't a big problem unless you just want to moan.

 

[Bill]

I think you’re missing the point Asp. Just look at what we and most other countries are putting up with now just trying to keep the numbers from going off the scale because without these actions, where do you think the death rates would be and why would anyone in their right mind do this if it wasn’t absolutely necessary?

My Mick Mouse virus simulator probably wouldn’t win any prizes for accuracy but at least it replicates pretty well what we’ve seen up to now and if left to run, it allows me to see what happens further down the line. It even lets me see the effects of ignoring things and trust me it doesn’t work out well.

 

Bill

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

I don’t know where you manage to get half your bonkers information from Asp because when I look at the most up to date info, it lists the UK as having the fifth highest death toll on the planet, beaten only by countries whose populations are many times that of the UK. Even in the single day rate, we rank second, only beaten by the USA which has about four times more people. I think it’s time to get a newer PC Asp as yours seems to be running months too slow 😊 In any case, ranking numbers wasn’t what I was talking about but the logic of restricting entry into the UK from counties with less of a problem, but at least we seem to agree on the education issue.

 

Bill 😊

I have just downloaded the latest data from the European Centre for Disease Control, and sorted it by deaths per 100,000 population, the UK is 9th. UK travel policies are set by case data from this source.

Rank	country	country_code	continent	population	indicator	weekly_count	year_week	rate_14_day	cumulative_count	Rate
1	San Marino	SMR	Europe	34453	deaths	5	2020-53	203.1753	62	179.9553
2	Belgium	BEL	Europe	11455519	deaths	367	2020-53	77.69181	19750	172.406
3	Slovenia	SVN	Europe	2080908	deaths	307	2020-53	251.3326	2891	138.9297
4	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	Europe	3280815	deaths	178	2020-53	154.23	4131	125.9138
5	Italy	ITA	Europe	60359546	deaths	3407	2020-53	108.2347	75332	124.8054
6	North Macedonia	MKD	Europe	2077132	deaths	74	2020-53	114.5811	2530	121.8026
7	Peru	PER	America	32971846	deaths	348	2020-53	21.23023	37873	114.8647
8	Czechia	CZE	Europe	10649800	deaths	918	2020-53	155.7776	12070	113.3355
9	United Kingdom	GBR	Europe	66647112	deaths	3915	2020-53	114.3785	75024	112.569
10	Montenegro	MNE	Europe	622182	deaths	23	2020-53	101.2565	689	110.7393
11	Andorra	AND	Europe	76177	deaths	2	2020-53	39.38197	84	110.2695
12	Bulgaria	BGR	Europe	7000039	deaths	514	2020-53	152.7134	7678	109.6851
13	Spain	ESP	Europe	46937060	deaths	956	2020-53	38.73272	51078	108.8223
14	United States	USA	America	331002647	deaths	18264	2020-53	102.4765	351590	106.2197
15	Hungary	HUN	Europe	9772756	deaths	816	2020-53	173.4414	9977	102.0899
16	Croatia	HRV	Europe	4076246	deaths	333	2020-53	199.9389	4072	99.89584
17	Mexico	MEX	America	128932753	deaths	4358	2020-53	66.81778	127213	98.66616
18	France	FRA	Europe	67012883	deaths	1928	2020-53	66.9722	65037	97.05149
19	Armenia	ARM	Europe	2963234	deaths	89	2020-53	70.19358	2864	96.65116
20	Argentina	ARG	America	45195777	deaths	614	2020-53	32.85705	43482	96.2081
21	Panama	PAN	America	4314768	deaths	248	2020-53	125.8469	4140	95.94954
22	Brazil	BRA	America	212559409	deaths	4879	2020-53	41.05676	196018	92.21798
23	Liechtenstein	LIE	Europe	38378	deaths	8	2020-53	286.6225	35	91.19808
24	Sweden	SWE	Europe	10230185	deaths	103	2020-53	33.23498	8985	87.82832
25	Chile	CHL	America	19116209	deaths	324	2020-53	29.81763	16767	87.71091
26	Colombia	COL	America	50882884	deaths	1591	2020-53	64.56002	43965	86.4043
28	Switzerland	CHE	Europe	8544527	deaths	495	2020-53	183.0411	7238	84.70919
29	Luxembourg	LUX	Europe	613894	deaths	19	2020-53	107.5104	506	82.42465
30	Romania	ROU	Europe	19414458	deaths	645	2020-53	81.64019	15979	82.30464

[Bill]

I just looked at the info from a couple of sites which both put the UK at 5^th but if it’s 9^th, well that’s still a long way off Asps 27^th Also factor in that the UK has far more of the new strain that is rocketing up our numbers far faster than any other country and given how close some of the numbers are and how old this information is, it wouldn’t surprise me to see us topping this listing very soon.

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

8 minutes ago, Bill said:

I just looked at the info from a couple of sites which both put the UK at 5^th but if it’s 9^th, well that’s still a long way off Asps 27^th Also factor in that the UK has far more of the new strain that is rocketing up our numbers far faster than any other country and given how close some of the numbers are and how old this information is, it wouldn’t surprise me to see us topping this listing very soon.

 

Bill 😊

You are right that the rates are close to the UK number for a number of countries below us. The data for the top countries is pretty up to date though at week 53 of 2020, that is last week. I think we have no real chance of beating Belgium at this stage but their problem was care homes and they have started vaccinating late, two days ago but have broadly the same priority list as the UK except more health workers before the non-care home over 65 up to 90+s.

[Bill]

What I looked at was dated just 2 days ago and were absolute numbers rather than the rate per 100000. The latter, while being a good indicator is very prone to anomalies such as when small countries like San Remo are included. At the risk of sounding like someone on here, we could probably include Latchford as a country and using 1/100000, claim it to be the worst infected place in the world.  

On my simulation BTW, writing it in VB6 wasn’t the smartest move because it’s so old now, there's no tools to generate an exportable exe. I hardly write anything at high level these days so cant justify the cost of Visual Studio.

But it was an interesting exercise where everything affected the results, but the most worrying variable was the asymptomatic for which there's still no definitive figures. I had it set to default at a best guess of 20% but this had a huge effect on the outcome because these people don’t quarantine and so spread a lot more of the virus. I know I’ve said several times that I thought testing was a bit of a waste of time, but after seeing the simulated effects with this group, I’m changing my mind.

Bill

[Confused52]

25 minutes ago, Bill said:

What I looked at was dated just 2 days ago and were absolute numbers rather than the rate per 100000. The latter, while being a good indicator is very prone to anomalies such as when small countries like San Remo are included. At the risk of sounding like someone on here, we could probably include Latchford as a country and on the 1/100000, claim it to be the worst infected place in the world.  

On my simulation BTW, writing it in VB6 wasn’t the smartest move because it’s that old there’s now no tools to generate an exportable exe like there used to be.

But it was an interesting exercise where everything affected the results, but the most worrying variable was the asymptomatic for which there is still no hard and fast figures. I had it set to default at 20% but this had a huge effect on the outcome because these people don’t quarantine and so spread a lot more of the virus. I know I’ve said several times that I thought testing was a bit of a waste of time, but after seeing the simulated effects with this group, I’m changing my mind.

Bill

Bill,

I have access to a copy of the vb6 distribution disc I think, I may have packed it away, so I can handle the source code and don't need an executable. I should be able to handle the .exe that it does produce on an old image of win2k or earlier somewhere. Thinking about your asymptomatic number, my own view is that a lot of the asymptomatic are actually pre-symptomatic and they carry it for two days before realising. They are then ill for a further 7 days so the "asymptomatic" some of which will get it too mildly to notice are infectious for 2 days extra so that is 2 out of the known 7 (not 9 because they don't know about the extra two.

So it is 2/7 = 28% on top of 100% so in total 28/128 or 22% asymptomatic whichever way you look at it. so in addition to the people who know they have it there are 30% or so more at any one time who have it but don't know yet. It there is true asymptomatic transmission then the number is higher but the vaccine will show us the answer through monitoring in care home in a couple of months I guess.

There is also a group who kid themselves that they do not have it although being suspicious but don't isolate until they have a positive result. Couldn't put a number on that but they are why I wouldn't go near a pub with young people in it. In my mind I fear that they believe that they are not going to cause their known contacts harm so it is fine to wait.

[asperity]

58 minutes ago, Bill said:

I just looked at the info from a couple of sites which both put the UK at 5^th but if it’s 9^th, well that’s still a long way off Asps 27^th Also factor in that the UK has far more of the new strain that is rocketing up our numbers far faster than any other country and given how close some of the numbers are and how old this information is, it wouldn’t surprise me to see us topping this listing very soon.

 

Bill 😊

Again Bill, what you said was in answer to your assertion that the UK is the "worst infected" not the country "with the worst death rates", two completely different things I'm sure you would agree. Also, as I've said before, this isn't a competition.

And again, the numbers you say are rocketing up are cases (positive tests, not people who are sick or dying) and are not matched by the mortality rate.