Gas shortage this winter?

[Bill]

The prospect of power cuts during the winter doesn’t sound too good but I wonder how the projections are made. I think most people are already planning how they can reduce their gas bills this year through a variety of means. We were only getting 4% of our gas from Russia so I reckon the reduction made by the public will be far higher than that. so to my way of thinking  we shouldn’t have any issues.

I’m toying with the idea of buzzing off for a long pensioner style winter break, somewhere where it’s not so cold. I’ve never done this sort of thing before, but a bit of Spanish warmth sounds better than freezing to death here. My gas normally runs about £300/ month during the winter peak so whatever a break might cost, I should be able to knock that off the price.

So what plans are others making to stave off the worst of this?

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Think I'll invest in some thermal layers Bill.  I don't think Spain will be a solution, it still gets cold at night and they'll be paying sky high prices for heating too, as Germany seems to be cornering the market on fuel imports, as the great EU starts to look after their National interest before the common good !   As for heating, with nothing else to spend on - heating and eating will be the priority I guess.     

[Bill]

The wife and I have both had our thermal tops on for the last week or so and as a result we haven’t needed to use any heating at all yet. I mentioned this in the pub on Tuesday and found the four other blokes round the table had already done the same. I don’t normally bother with thermals during the winter, and I only bought mine because I was building an extension to the house during the winter months. Anyway, it’s not been too bad up to now, but I suppose it won’t be long before we need to crank up the heat.

Earlier this year, I spent £20 a programmable thermostatic radiator valve that varies the temperature of a room during the day. Seems to work well and the makers say it should pay for itself within the first year.  Now someone on telly suggested one of the best saving to be made is by using an electric blanket rather than heating the whole bedroom, which makes sense given they use less that 100w. I went online yesterday only to find electric blankets are now like rocking horse manure with most suppliers showing sold out.

I still believe that the energy experts may have got this a bit wrong. The price hike itself will probably reduce consumption enough to avoid outages but add to that, the resolve of the British public when faced with a crisis, and I think we’ll be ok. 

 

Bill 😊

[Evil Sid]

thirteen tog duvet keeps you warm,provided the wife does not hog it.

had the central heating on the other day for an hour, mainly to check it was working as we have only had it less than seven months and only have the one radiator in the main room. any heat goes up the open plan stairs and takes the chill off the bedrooms when the heating is on.

don't get out and about much but when i have to,as the weather cools down, i might put a jumper on over my tee shirt and wear a woolly hat if it gets chilly round the lug holes.

currently the temp in my back bed room/ computer room is 20.6 degrees, which to somebody who has ridden motorbikes in all weathers for years,is a bit warm.

I do wonder if there is a gas shortage though. oil production is being stepped down to ensure that the price per barrel is kept at a higher price which leads to a rise in petrol prices. could they be doing the same with gas production as well?

[Observer II]

There is of course the option to utilise communal assets such as the local library to get warm, or use your bus pass for a day out, however, that may seem less attractive now that Covid is ramping up !    😷

[Evil Sid]

would that i could use my bus pass.

despite being 65 and classed by most establishments as a pensioner as i do not yet draw the state pension i am not entitled to one. roll on next year.

I am currently wondering if my body thermostat is set right. up to 21 degrees i am fine but as soon as the temperature hits 21 degrees i feel cold and start shivering.

21 degrees must be the point at which my body can't decide if it warm or cold.

there seems to be a very narrow temperature range to this. usually between 20.8 degrees and 21.6 degrees. either side of these temperatures and i am fine just that narrow band. there must be a medical explanation for this but no idea what it might be......🤔

[Confused52]

21 hours ago, Bill said:

The prospect of power cuts during the winter doesn’t sound too good but I wonder how the projections are made. I think most people are already planning how they can reduce their gas bills this year through a variety of means. We were only getting 4% of our gas from Russia so I reckon the reduction made by the public will be far higher than that. so to my way of thinking  we shouldn’t have any issues.

I’m toying with the idea of buzzing off for a long pensioner style winter break, somewhere where it’s not so cold. I’ve never done this sort of thing before, but a bit of Spanish warmth sounds better than freezing to death here. My gas normally runs about £300/ month during the winter peak so whatever a break might cost, I should be able to knock that off the price.

So what plans are others making to stave off the worst of this?

 

Bill 😊

I read the Gas and Electricity statements. The Gas one states that they are anticipating the average household will reduce their thermostat by 0.5 degrees Celsius. They are relying on the market to ensure we get Liquid Natural Gas in sufficient volumes but that depends on the Germans and the Dutch not outbidding us for the cargoes that do not have a planned destination. I think that means when we hit a cold spell if it also affects continental Europe we will turn off Electricity Generators. They have arranged for Coal Stations that were going to close to stay available but there are only 2GW of that. The problem seems to be that the peak demand is unpredictable, supplies cannot be booked from abroad to cover it, and we expect the rest of Europe not to help at all.

If the Spanish idea works for you it sounds good. How to time it for the next beast from the East may be the tricky bit.

[Bill]

Yep, all good stuff there Con.

Personally, I’m a bit concerned about any potential drop in gas pressure as my new boiler is right on its bottom limits, despite having had the road dug up and all new pipework installed. Its managed to stay operational for four years now but I’ve been warned that if the pressure drops even slightly, I’ll end up having no heating at all so last minute.com might still come in handy. I don't understand why most modern combi boilers suffer this issue while the older style boilers were more tolerant?

As for the acceptable temperature range, I wouldn’t know as I don’t have a working thermometer having cooked the only one I had while testing my solar water heater. We don’t even have a wall thermostat to go by and just turn up the wick on the boiler if we feel cold. I suppose getting a proper room thermostat might help to save some gas, I’ll have to investigate that.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Whilst I can imagine that turning off electrical supply isn't a problem,  what happens when gas supplies are turned off ?   The pipes will empty, leaving appliances sucking on air, or will they visit every post code to turn off ?   Either way, we could witness some fires or explosions, when they turn it back on.    Should have stuck to solid fuel I guess, and gone collecting wood !           All this prompts me to ask - what's happened to "global warming" ?  There seems to be a stronger case for climate change being driven by the Malkovitch Cycle producing a colder climate,  and that CO2 has nothing to do with it ?   

[Confused52]

50 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Whilst I can imagine that turning off electrical supply isn't a problem,  what happens when gas supplies are turned off ?   The pipes will empty, leaving appliances sucking on air, or will they visit every post code to turn off ?   Either way, we could witness some fires or explosions, when they turn it back on.    Should have stuck to solid fuel I guess, and gone collecting wood !           All this prompts me to ask - what's happened to "global warming" ?  There seems to be a stronger case for climate change being driven by the Malkovitch Cycle producing a colder climate,  and that CO2 has nothing to do with it ?   

Yes, of course that would be dangerous, wouldn't it? I assumed that was why the response to being short of gas is to stop using it to generate electricity, which is estimated at 25% of demand during the winter. That way domestic gas heating will be protected. Large gas installations will be turned off too if needed yielding further savings to protect domestic heating so its failure is unlikely. Othe than, as Bill points out, due to over enthusiastic supply pressure sensors.

I wonder if they have thought out three hour electricity cuts properly. In the 70's we got the rota for cuts from the local rag but there were no mobile phones back then. Today there is a high dependence on them but many base stations only have 1 hour of battery backup. Won't a three hour power cut cause widespread loss of emergency access in hours two and three?

[Bill]

I was under the impression that they survive for considerably longer, but it would depend on the size of their service area and the volume of traffic. A few years back there was a major outage in the Lancaster area that took several days to get fully restored. We expected to see the cells starting to drop within hours but most remained active for a day or more. It’s possible that there’s sufficient intelligence built into today’s systems to allow a degree of traffic management such that M2M data and emergency calls are prioritised while high volume data such as streaming is blocked or throttled back to conserve power. That would certainly explain the extended service we experienced.

As for global warming and green issues, I think the fanatics are going to have to bite their lips for a while until this problem gets resolved. If nothing else though, something like this serves to highlight what could happen if green agenda is pushed too far.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

I think it's already been pushed too far Bill, with the "net zero" nonsence;  which BoJo picked up from his partner.   Interesting that Trump thinks Boris went woke during his leadership, the power behind the throne at work.    

[Bill]

Leaving aside names and politics, what I was trying to say there was that there needs to be some give and take when things don’t go according to plan. If we need to reverse a decision or two for the short-term national interest, then the green community should be prepared to accept this. After all, the net zero thing is a target rather than a hard line and as long as we’re doing our best, finger pointing, and criticism gets us nowhere and achieves nothing.

So, when the anti-fracking brigade chain themselves to the fence, we should allow those suffering power cuts to go down there with welding gear and make the job permanent. 😊

 

Bill 😊

[Evil Sid]

when the miners strikes were on power cuts were the norm for a quite a while. a great excuse for us kids not to do homework.

my father in law used to have a small petrol generator for emergencies. it put out 240 volts and was enough to keep the fridge and his central heating ticking over for several hours in the event of a power outage.

my big concern during an electrical outage would be the number of candles people will be using for lighting. the risks of domestic fires going up by a huge factor.

two areas will be doing a good trade though. camping gas stove merchants and trauma councillors.

the first so that even with the gas off you can at least cook a meal and heat water to have a wash and the second to comfort all those people who suffer anxiety when they can't access twitter and the like on their phones.....🤣

by the way if anybody wants any jam jars to make safety candle holders let me know i have a dozen or so hanging around the house.

[Observer II]

Whilst western politicians and media are in denial over the Nordstream pipeline sabotage;  most folk with half a brain have concluded that the sabotage was carried out by the US. Which raises an issue about how the Yanks treat their allies,  they've clearly dumped on Germany, and had the nerve to offer supplies of LNG at a price, which may or may not save them from freezing this Winter.  Now whilst western Governments will try to keep energy supplied to their populations, supplies to their industries may be more difficult, resulting in ultimate de-industrialisation and of course job losses.   So as the US and UK continue to press Zelinski to fight to the last Ukrainian, and to the detriment of their own populations, the western media peddle their fake news t keep their public on side.   As we shiver through the coming Winter, and costs inflate;  we can ponder on the fact that western  politicians have caused this plight with their myopic pursuit of economic sanctions on Russia.    😠

[Confused52]

Bill,

The estimate of 1 hour was actually from Ofcom who gave that estimate for 50% of all base stations when asked directly about power cuts affecting service. I am not sure when the even you recall happened but 4G LTE tends to be a fairly constant power because it is transmitting data all the time whether it is useful or not. The later LTE enhanced kit can vary the power because it has extra data in the optical interface to the base station to vary the power in order to allow beam forming. Those are the latest version. The previous common base station to controller interface was not as clever. To use the flexibility requires that the base station and the controller manufacturer, which can be different, support the more powerful interface.

Older systems did have better traffic loading since in TDMA/GSM the slots other than control ones were either on or off. It got a bit worse with 3G but 4G is worse still. With the move to close down most of the 2G and all of the 3G masts and make everything 4G if does not look good. 

In response to Sid, thanks for the offer of jam jars as I fear you are dead right with the fear of excess fires. If the phones are out there will need to be extra police cars patrolling looking for folk to help. However, I doubt you will be able to contact trauma councillors as they will be busy with their own kids.

 

 

[Bill]

I think you’d probably do well moving to Russia Obs. At least there you might find more people agreeing with you. 😊

You’re right though, people with half a brain see that as the obvious conclusion, while those with a full brain conclude that nobody knows, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

No wonder,  the western public are being brainwashed by fake news - EG: Latest example - that the bridge to the Crimea had been "blown up";  there was damage to one road lane and some adjacent rail petrol trucks, the bridge is still operational.   They're blaming the Urainians  for planting a bomb on a truck, but it's known now, that UK & US special forces are operating in Ukraine, plus a bevvy of military advisers to make sure the Ukrainians keep fighting.   btw if you think for a minute that the pipeline "investigation" will be impartial/independent" your even more gullible.    

[Bill]

I don’t know Obs, but you have some funny takes on the situation out there. Let’s look at what you’re saying.

“The western public are being brainwashed by fake news - EG: Latest example - that the bridge to the Crimea had been "blown up"

It looked very much to me like the bridge was blown up so how is that fake news?

"There was damage to one road lane and some adjacent rail petrol trucks, the bridge is still operational.”

That’s exactly what they said on the news and at no time was it ever said it was completely destroyed. If they had have said that, then that would have been fake news

They're blaming the Urainians  for planting a bomb on a truck, but it's known now, that UK & US special forces are operating in Ukraine.

Sounds like you’re suggesting that that we planted the bomb, now that would be fake news. The media have never hidden the fact that the west have people over there to train and advise the Ukrainians but they’re fully capable of carrying out something like this on their own.

Although the Russians declared this a terrorist act, to me, the bridge was a perfectly legitimate wartime target, and no people were actually terrorised. The retaliatory action in contrast was aimed at a densely populated area with the sole aim to strike fear into people. Now to me that makes Putin the one that’s guilty of terrorism.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Suggest you start watching the independent pods on Youtube, such as Alexander Mecouris, Redacted, Scott Ritter etc;   our media is now totally compromised in terms of objectivity and designed to encourage blind faith. Throughout this war, the Russians have deliberately kept casualties as low as possible, excepting enemy combat soldiers, who have suffered casualties on a scale comparable to WW1.   This latest missile offensive was surgical in nature, and killed a total of 11 people. I await the MSM headlines when the ground hardens  and the Russians begin a serious offensive, when their numbers march those of the enemy.    

[Confused52]

No thanks Obs. Mercouris and Ritter are contributors to RT so you can forget the independent tags. The redacted podcast is by two real estate fugitives from justice who are deliberately contrarian, which is not the same as seeking the truth, and lack any special knowledge on the subject. If you listen to and believe RT that is up to you, but you should understand that Ofcom declared them to be unfit to broadcast because they were proven liars not because of the war. They had been found out time after time over years.

[Observer II]

Well, it comes down to who you trust and who seeks the most rational;  and imo our MSM is now so biased in it's reporting that it represents no more than propaganda to drug the minds of the public.   I noted during Truss's mini election, that when she said she would "press the button", it gained an applause in the audience; thus showing how brain dead folk have become; as the consequences of WW3 are Mutually Assured Destruction;  so dying of radiation poisoning in a nuclear wasteland, these folk can say, "at least we got you back".  Clearly insane by any standard.   The brainwashing we get from our MSM is displayed in other areas, such as the complete black out on immigration stories or the woke promotion of LGBQ in entertainment and advertising, which is totally divorced from reality.   So you trust them if you wish,  I prefer more logical reporting that makes sense, rather than emotive BS we are getting. Something that has been recognised by growing public opinion and demonstrations throughout Europe, not covered by the MSM of course.      Think we need to view the war aims of the two combatants: -  NATO - to bleed (using Ukrainian bodies & European economies)) the capacity of Russia as a viable Nation, making possible a US sponsored coup in Moscow.     Russia - to extinguish a Nazi infiltrated regime in Kiev, brought into power by an illegal , US sponsored coup in 2014; and to absorb the Russian speaking populace who have been persecuted by the Zelenski Gov; into greater Russia.   The Russians have made clear their red lines on the use of Nuclear weapons, which are no first use.   💀

[Evil Sid]

pinch of salt needed with all media these days(with certain exceptions of course Gary).

I always ask two questions of any "news" items.

1. what is in it for them.

2. would i buy a used car off this person.

normally the first is simple as it is usually monetary gain, be it in wages or sponsorship. (which is about the same)

the second would involve some checking up on that persons past history when it comes to selling goods. (shoddy or otherwise)

it is, as always, up to you who you choose to watch and believe or not as the case may be. That is your choice and the choice of each individual.

People will nearly always jump on the latest fad, tok tok has proved this over and over.

as for politicians they will say anything to stay in office and change their minds more often than the traffic lights change and probably quicker.

i have no answers, or rather, i have plenty of answers but they are often contradictory or so far fetched that you would need a very large telescope to see the origin.

 

[ninearches]

The west is lucky to have the NATO umbrella otherwise there would be more aggression towards free European countries from tin pot dictators. And don't forget MAD has put the brakes on major conflict for over 70 years.

[Confused52]

NATO is unequivally not a combatant in Ukraine. That is a lie spread by the lunatic fringe in Moscow such as Medvedev.

In the Falklands conflict the French sold Exocet missiles to the Argentinians and refused to give the UK the unlock codes, no one suggested that made France a combatant in the Falklands war.

The idea that an aggressor state, that is the one that invades and seizes another's territory contrary to the UN Charter can dictate what third countries can supply arms to the invaded state and that attacks by it on the territory of the aggressor with weapons from a third country makes the third country a combatant is absurd. It sits along the absurdity of a Multipolar World in which Russia dictates the rules for the other multipolar states which they must follow or be blown up. It is all lies, deception and fantasy. I have arrived at this point using only utterances from the Russians themselves I don't need the MSM or RT to tell me how absurd the Russian position is. They are dangerously self-delusional.