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Mask or no mask?


Bill
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You may or may not know this, but I have on of the small e-cigs that I puff on occasionally. It’s not one of those big things that belches stuff out like a steam train, in fact most of the time you can’t actually see much in the way of smoke. But sitting watching the news today, the bright sunshine really showed up every last molecule of my vaping and I was amazed to see just how far my smoke was going while just breathing normally.

Time for a test I thought so I put on one of the cheap blue paper masks that most people wear and repeated the vaping. Other than a tiny bit escaping round the nose area, there was no visible smoke at all which absolutely amazed me. I don’t know the difference in size between a smoke molecule and a virus, but I doubt there’s that much difference. Without the mask, just one breath was enough for it to spread in seconds throughout the entire living room leaving me to wonder about the effectiveness of recommended social distancing limits.  

I just wish everyone in the country could have seen this simple test, especially those who question the effectiveness of masks.

 

Bill 😊

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

You may or may not know this, but I have on of the small e-cigs that I puff on occasionally. It’s not one of those big things that belches stuff out like a steam train, in fact most of the time you can’t actually see much in the way of smoke. But sitting watching the news today, the bright sunshine really showed up every last molecule of my vaping and I was amazed to see just how far my smoke was going while just breathing normally.

Time for a test I thought so I put on one of the cheap blue paper masks that most people wear and repeated the vaping. Other than a tiny bit escaping round the nose area, there was no visible smoke at all which absolutely amazed me. I don’t know the difference in size between a smoke molecule and a virus, but I doubt there’s that much difference. Without the mask, just one breath was enough for it to spread in seconds throughout the entire living room leaving me to wonder about the effectiveness of recommended social distancing limits.  

I just wish everyone in the country could have seen this simple test, especially those who question the effectiveness of masks.

 

Bill 😊

I think that you are pretty much right since the vape is probably mostly water vapour carrying the vape materials and your coronavirus is also carried on water vapour. You exhale a bit harder on vaping hence the water vapour droplets will be a bit larger than normal breathing. If you exhale with just the normal breathing force your results would seem to be totally valid to me since it is really just the water vapour droplets and the material mesh size interacting which matters. I do not "know" this but it seems eminently plausible.

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36 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Looks like most grumpies prefer to remain cautious and continue with the masks, while the rest continue to dice with the disease.   😷

I will wear mine until the virus has gone or as near as damn it gone.

And I'm among the unfortunates who wear glasses so fog is a real pain but small price to pay compared to getting a dose of covid.

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The ONS have surveyed this recently and the compliance in shops goes up with age as you suggest. However compliance is below the national average in the North West and above in London. That will not end well. Only 15% of those dropping off or picking up kids at school wear masks despite it being a hotbed of infection for kids and their parents. Where is the Public Health Advice from the council!

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Parents work on the principle that if they are outside they are safe because of the fresh air blowing the germs away and if they drop the kids off in the car then they will not come into contact with anybody so will still be safe.

Kids themselves think they are "immortal" and have nothing to fear from the virus even if they catch it, after all it is only the "oldies" that die from it is probably their thinking if any.

Also it only happens to other people........🤭

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19 hours ago, Observer II said:

It's clear to me, that a firebreak lockdown is required and the booster jab prog speeded up; if we don't want the NHS overloaded by Xmas.  From what I'm hearing, a lot of infections derive from school kids - colds, flu & covid.   😷

The graph of recent Warrington case age bands (as a case rate over 7 days for 100k persons). The massively climbing group is 10 to 14 and next 15 to 19. Third highest is 40 to 45 - parents of those kids - at a much lower rate. As far as I know a firebreak hasn't worked anywhere. The key is if you are old keep away from all kids as far as I can see.

 

 

 

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But you can't, while there is free movement -  the kids catch it at school (like they catch most things), bring it home to parents, then parents pass it on to everyone else.  Perhaps closing schools (as a holiday) till after Xmas would help ?    It looks like HMG are using the kids to reach herd immunity ?      😷

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As the ariel advert advises. "always keep away from children"......:rolleyes:

Making something compulsory is fine provided you can get people to comply with it. Seat belts have been compulsory for a very long time yet you still find people who don't wear them all the time.

With masks they give people a get out with unless you are exempt.

Short of living a howard hughes lifestyle or not going outside without a full hazmat suit i have no solutions apart from trust that the vaccine does as advertised and take reasonable precautions.

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10 hours ago, Observer II said:

But you can't, while there is free movement -  the kids catch it at school (like they catch most things), bring it home to parents, then parents pass it on to everyone else.  Perhaps closing schools (as a holiday) till after Xmas would help ?    It looks like HMG are using the kids to reach herd immunity ?      😷

Well you can stop meeting grandchildren and their parents without taking precautions. You can also keep your distance in shops from the 40 to 55 age group who will not wear masks to protect you. The situation is different to that which prevailed at Christmas, there are less people to avoid that you would normally see, at least for most of us. The biggest risk is for those who have to give free childcare to their grandchildren, they are at greater risk and should try to find alternatives for now. With more information one can take sensible mitigation measure, which is why I am fed up with the total lack of advice from the Council Health Protection people. I suspect that they offer no advice because not all can follow it. It is the Covid equivalent of one out all out; or one dead all dead!

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I think by now most people understand how the virus spreads and how dangerous it can be for others but sadly the younger generations don’t seem to care much for the others of this world, only themselves and their immediate family. The government can’t change the nature of these people, as rules or laws are simply seen as unwanted interference in their lives. It doesn’t help either when opposition parties constantly criticise every move.

Given all the above makes for an impossible situation, I think the only solution to getting people to wear masks is an intensive media campaign to brand the none mask wearers as selfish uncaring people. Nobody can object because it’s not legislation nor is it coming from any one political party. I doubt though that deep down anyone would like to be thought of as selfish and uncaring person so this approach might be the way forward.

 

Bill 😊

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I'm sure most grumpies will continue to act with caution and avoid covidiots where possible.   The problem is, and has always been, in trying to avoid the idiots it can lead to friction (especially in my case, as I have a low tolerance for such idiots) and ultimately, possible violence; as indeed we're seeing in other areas of confrontation, like the M/way protests.   It's therefore essential for the Gov to take the lead on mandatory advice to ensure we don't succumb to yet another surge this Winter.   😷

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Well despite all I said earlier about the effectiveness of masks, looking at the overall UK figures, there’s not a huge difference between England and the other countries who retained compulsory mask wearing. There’s no doubt masks work but it’s clear that the continued high numbers are due mainly to the high levels of social mixing, especially at indoor locations.

On Tuesday I attended a club meeting in Grappenhall; where with a primarily elderly membership, Covid advice was followed to the letter. But adjourning for a drink afterwards we were forced to sit at the far end of the bar as a group of about a hundred noisy footie supporters all crammed in together around the big screen.

If ever anyone needed an example of why we still have a problem, then look no further than this.

 

Bill 😊

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Too little, too late again; as the Gov deny a need for a firebreak lockdown -  think we've reached the stage where the Gov are wantonly making things worse and possibly condemning folk to death or severe illness, while sticking their heads in the sand.   Alas, no sense either from the opposition, who are just as clueless. So I guess it's every (wo)man for himself.    😠  😷

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They deny it because it isn't true and Sage haven't called for a lockdown at all. They appear to have called for no delay in applying mask wearing being required and working from home if possible. That is not a lockdown.

Firebreaks are mini lockdowns and they have not been showed to work at all, they are usually proposed as two weeks and it is too short at two generations of infection and is therefore just a standstill at best. Given that most of the cases are in kids at the moment we have a form of firebreak called half-term anyway. A rational person would wait until after that holiday to decide; and that is what is happening. If you are looking for someone to blame for the potential deaths it currently isn't the government. The government are planning to reduce deaths by increasing the resistance of the most susceptible by pushing out the booster programme. The NHS organisation of the booster programme looks like a dogs breakfast because people do not know who is delivering it and how they will be notified. Lots think that are waiting for their GPs to call them without realising that they may not be participating. This is a disaster waiting to happen and it is caused by GPs and the NHS looking after their own agenda, hence the noise as they get their counter-attack on government in first!

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Lots think that are waiting for their GPs to call them without realising that they may not be participating.

 Well, I got a text notification for my booster last week so am I just lucky or is the system really working?

As for the government’s plan, well it seems to me that they’re trying to minimize any damage to businesses that rely on people socializing or gathering. This might be good for the businesses and the younger people who enjoy the lack of restrictions, but it does nothing to prevent the increase in infections that worries us oldies.

We know that there’s probably a bend up ahead but the government aren’t easing off the gas at the moment and trusting that late breaking will work. It works well for Lewis Hamilton but it's not the way I'd do things.

 

Bill :)

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Bill, the local NHS doesn't seem very good at giving out information. There is a spreadsheet of where the vaccination centres are and what type they are on the NHS site nationally. Participation in the Booster Rollout is not mandatory for GP practices. The GP practices are grouped into Primary Care Networks (PCNs) and two of them I think used the Rugby Stadium whilst some others used Orford Hub. This time the Orford Hub is working, but there is no indication for which practices other than 4Seasons. In addition the Stockton Heath Surgery is doing walk in every Saturday morning in October but no indication after that. So are you lucky? Well you might have been. For most people they are supposed to get a letter and then book online or phone 119. There are two pharmacy sites at the village Hotel and the WIA in Bewsey and the St Helens Rugby Megasite currently listed. Nothing like as accessible and straightforward as last time, or at least that what it looks like. My understanding is that 182 days after your second jab the National Booking system will let you book a Booster if you are over 50 or in the At Risk group (Group 5) that were jabbed in Phase1 in parallel with the over 50s. By now they should have given out Boosters to all but about 2 million of the priority 1 to 4 cohorts which comes to around 12 million people, if we are lucky they might be at half that number.

I am not much younger than you Bill. The booster is supposed to increase the antibody count to stop more infections early and hence reduce hospitalisations from breakthrough infections by making them them stay in the upper respiratory tract. Wearing masks reduces the subsequent infection of others and that seems like a good plan TBH. The problem is those that those who are liable to catch mild infections aren't wearing masks in crowded places and the vaccine rollout is only half the speed it should be to stop the breakthrough infections. I just do not see that making a change to the law will make them change their behaviour. 

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I thought it might be informative to look at the graph of infections/week per 100000 population (the Case Rate) against time if we exclude school children for England. This is the result for the last 12 months of data.

 

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There really is an upturn in hospital admissions which will make it harder to maintain infection control but it is not so much that the admissions will overwhelm the NHS at the moment rather it will  make it difficult to recover the backlog and thus the NHS targets! It is really an organisational problem I suspect and that we are being manipulated as usual.

We clearly need to reduce cases in school children but it doesn't suggest that the whole of society needs shutting down as far as I can see.

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