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New Vaccine.


Bill
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Surprised there’s been nothing here about the announcement of the vaccine that could put an end to all our lockdown woes.

Not quite as good as Domestos, but apparently 90% effectiveness is much better than was expected.

The question is, do us oldies rush out to get it or let the mega spreaders have it?

 

Bill 😊

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2 hours ago, Observer II said:

Does that mean Bill, that 10% of infections occurred in those who did get the vaccine ?    If so,  sounds too risky to me.      😷

So you think it preferable to be 100% certain of getting infected than only 10% likely do you??

The way things like that work is to reduce the susceptible population to only 10% of the vaccinated population. So the 90% count towards the vaunted herd immunity that you love so much. Vaccination is how you obtain controlled herd immunity. Immunity from being infected is much more variable and not reliable in its longevity. If there are approx. 75% of people over the age of 5 vaccinated, with 90% effectiveness,  then the Rt value cannot rise above 1 (assuming R0 for Covid-19 is 3), so the epidemic will wane in a country with strict entry controls. That is not quite the same as getting back to normal but some social distancing being retained will allow a lot of freedom earlier. 

In time there will be an admission that the virus first wave was effectively caused by winter holidays and the second wave was caused by summer holidays, just before school started, and some real soul searching will be needed because the rest of the world will not get the vaccine and regular repeats over many years. This will be the same as Yellow Fever etc of yesteryear, which we just had to deal with by vaccination of travellers. The travel business may not bounce back ever.

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I don’t think the normal flu vaccine can guarantee 100% protection. A few years back, the vaccine wasn’t much better than 50% so 90% is far better than the scientist expected.

Another way to think of this is that you’re nearly ten times more likely to catch it if you’re not vaccinated.

 

Bill :)

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The normal flu vaccine does not give you immunity but if you do get the flu it will be less severe with the vaccine than without, or so i'm told.

Suspect that will be the case they hope for with the covid vaccine.

Then again it will depend on which version you get, bat or mink.........🦇...🤔

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2 hours ago, Davy51 said:

A bit of a perplexing reference on BBC news about China supplying the genetic code to provide the trial vaccines ,i wonder how long they have been sat on that ?

They first released the RNA sequence on January 12, 2020 that was used to produce tests based on the method used earlier to detect MERS and SARS. The test is based on the same mechanism that is used for DNA testing. Research groups started to work on a vaccine pretty much straight away but the work to date will be the fastest to achieve a vaccine that the world has ever seen. The Gates funded project at Novavax used the RNA sequence to get a computer to design the vaccine within weeks and it is one of those in final stages of testing in the UK now, they did their first Phase 1 human trial in May 2020. 

The Chinese released the sequence early but they did not close the borders from Wuhan when they realised how dangerous it was because they were in denial I guess. that was when it spread to Northern Italy where many Chinese worked in the fashion trade and from there to the millions of Winter holiday makers in the Tirol north of Italy, and here we are.

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I checked out the Mink link and, comedic value aside, the best detail you will get is I believe here:

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/explainer-sars-cov-2-mutations-the-science-behind-the-mink-case/

The bottom line is no proof that it will stop any of the vaccines in development from working has been found yet but they will keep monitoring. What has been found is that that variant will not respond as well to one of the mono-clonal antibody therapies being tested ( well that was my understanding of what they said). This group are the UK monitoring group for mutations  of the virus and work on this full-time.

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8 hours ago, Bill said:

They said a total of 40,000 people were tested, half were given the vaccine, the other half given a placebo.

A total of 94 people ended up with Covid19.

90% of the infections occurred in those who didn’t received the vaccine.

 

Bill :)

So how did the infected people get infected? Were all 40000 given the vaccine/placebo and told to go about their daily business, or were they all kept in a controlled environment with the Covid virus sprayed around? Something else? Whatever, 94 infections out of 40000 (or 85 out of 20000 if you prefer) doesn't seem that risky to me. Paint me just as confused as I was 6 months ago 🤔🙄😷

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I haven’t a clue Asp, but I have to assume they used the methods they’ve always used so yes they would have been told to go about their business as normal. If it were me doing this, I’d use much smaller numbers but lock them into a room with some infected people and that way you’d probably get the same results but a lot quicker.

As for the actual numbers, 85 in 20000 is very roughly 1 in a hundred (easier to visualize) but it’s worth noting that the test was done in multiple countries not just here in the UK. Could me more here, could be less, but that’s not what the testing was about. If the volunteers were sprayed with huge amounts of Covid19, then the number of infections would increase but the percentage effectiveness of the vaccine wouldn’t change.

The jury’s out on how safe it is, but I know a lot of people are understandably worried about how quickly this has been developed. I’ve not found the restrictions that hard to live with so for me, I’d be quite happy to give it a miss and watch the R number drop.

 

Bill 😊

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48 minutes ago, Bill said:

I haven’t a clue Asp, but I have to assume they used the methods they’ve always used so yes they would have been told to go about their business as normal. If it were me doing this, I’d use much smaller numbers but lock them into a room with some infected people and that way you’d probably get the same results but a lot quicker.

As for the actual numbers, 85 in 20000 is very roughly 1 in a hundred (easier to visualize) but it’s worth noting that the test was done in multiple countries not just here in the UK. Could me more here, could be less, but that’s not what the testing was about. If the volunteers were sprayed with huge amounts of Covid19, then the number of infections would increase but the percentage effectiveness of the vaccine wouldn’t change.

The jury’s out on how safe it is, but I know a lot of people are understandably worried about how quickly this has been developed. I’ve not found the restrictions that hard to live with so for me, I’d be quite happy to give it a miss and watch the R number drop.

 

Bill 😊

Change the batteries in your calculator Bill. It works out at 0.425% or just over 4 per thousand, which would equate to just under 9000 infections in unvaccinated people in Warrington. And, as we're talking "infections" here, which 99% of people recover from, it isn't a lot. But hey, what do I know? I'll just stay as my normal anti-social self and watch the world go mad.

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1 hour ago, Davy51 said:

So Confused, are you implying the Chinese had the genetic sequence 12 months ago ?

I'm not implying it  was a year ago. January 12, 2020 is the date quoted in scientific articles. Remember that the first UK case was a Chinese student and parent at York University on 30th January 2020.

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Maybe I should have used a calculator Asp as I never was that good at guzintas.

Ok it equates to about one in every two hundred that got infected but the whole point of the test was to establish the effectiveness of a cure, not how bad it is or how many catch it.

But on the numbers thing, even if only one in two hundred caught the virus, it’s worth remembering that this (9000 Warrintonians as you put it) is just one point in time and without a vaccine, we would either all have to catch it at some time or try to remain locked away for a significant part of our lives.

Like you, I’m not too worried but there are a lot out there that are, and a vaccine at least offers a glimmer of hope for them.

 

Bill :)

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There seems to be a theory that Covid was in the UK in December. There were quite a few people i know ,myself included, with similar to the published symptoms in December. Mine & its after effects lasted till March. This was when covid was "only prevalent thousands of miles away in China & couldn't possibly affect us".

Perhaps the Chinese student was the first identified case.

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Just so long as being vaccinated doesn't give people a false sense of security so they think they can go back to being carefree.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like the “Oxford” vaccine isn't quite so effective as the first two, but will probably end up being the one that most people will get given the quantities that were pre ordered. Better than nothing I suppose and we don't have to go to the north pole to get it.

 

Bill :) 

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