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Here we go again - mistakes part two.


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It is obvious now that I was right from day one.  Sorry Obs, you were wrong, but I won't crow, as usual, I'll  just give a casual wave to the crowd and humbly walk away.

The lockdowns and draconian measures were a total over reaction, one that would have been appropriate if it had have been a resurgence of the Black Death or the Plague.   But for an especially contagious version of the flu it has been ridiculous!

The US economy and the U.K. economy have been decimated and you have not yet seen the effects that will occur in the next couple of years.  Just read that the U.K. Is about to have its worst recession ever.

After all you have gone thru, one law enforcement incident and it all goes out of the window, apparently, thousands of people thronging the streets really isn't a problem!

It has always been obvious to me that isolation and control should have been directed at 'at risk groups' and not at the general population.

There you go, I'm sat on the seat in the dunking booth, can you hit the bullseye?

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I wish I knew who is right, who is wrong and who is lying through their teeth amongst the people who are supposed to be guiding us through this crisis. Can we believe anything anyone tells us? I'm retired so it hasn't affected me overly so far luckily, but the future isn't looking so rosy.

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Well, in the UK Stall, there are over 40,000 reasons why you are wrong.  The lowest death rates were in Countries that went into immediate and draconian lock down, like Greece.  This however doesn't stop the threat, it defers it, so that health services can cope and trace and track systems can be put in place.  You then require a gradual release from lock down by age cohorts,  leaving the most vulnerable shielded, until a vaccine or anti-viral treatment is available.  Basic common sense.    😷😉

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It it depends on perspective and context.  In several States, deaths from covid19 in people under fifty years old was less than 1% of total and that figure overall was around 8%.  This is far less than than deaths from a multitude of other reasons, car wrecks, burning buildings, spousal abuse etc.  The point being that a one size fits all draconian shut down was a mistake.  

The one big flaw in your argument Obs is, that you fail to take into account that the whole business was organized and operated by the government.   It is an accepted fact by everyone other than communists / socialists, that the government, any government, is incapable of running anything efficiently or making sensible decisions.

Unless you are retired with a nice pension and a fat bank account, a deep recession, lasting several years is probably going to kill many more than the bug has.

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Your forgetting that the US is a big Country with a large population, with higher densities around major Cities like N/York, one of the worst hit areas.  The UK is more densely populated overall and with a slack approach to incoming migrants, open to international infection.  An immediate lock down, as soon as they got wind it was a pandemic around February/March would have saved many premature deaths and ensured the NHS could cope.   It was then for a tracking  and tracing process to begin, allowing a gradual release of cohorts of healthy, younger folk out to restart the economy, whilst still shielding the old and infirm.   As for your comments about Private V State management, it hasn't worked with our probation or prison service, or indeed our rail services - so I'll file that one down to political prejudice.  😷

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2 hours ago, Observer II said:

As for your comments about Private V State management, it hasn't worked with our probation or prison service, or indeed our rail services - so I'll file that one down to political prejudice.  😷

All of those services are subject to massive state intervention and amount to little more than outsourcing of labour with full government control. I am sorry but your conclusion is unsubstantiated and the reality actually supports Stallard, All of the problems on the railways have at their heart the too big/important to fail catch which means that non-performance as a business does not cause the business to close and the staff just get TUPE'd. That is why they perform so poorly.

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It's all very well to say that the mystical "Track'n'Trace" should have been implemented in February, but the reality is that here we are in mid June without an actual nation-wide system. So how would a non existent system in February have saved anything? I'm beginning to feel that nobody knows anything and that all that is happening is people are positioning themselves to be in a position to say "it wasn't me, the big boy did it and ran away". It's very easy to say after the event that abcde should have been done.

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I didn't say that Asp; I said an immediate lock down should have been brought in in February;   and would have to last until a track and trace system was in place;  if S/Korea can do it, so can we , in theory. As for 20/20 hindsight,  my opinions on this matter haven't changed, since I promoted similar arguments on this board, during the African Ebola threat.  Throughout history,  the standard counter to an epidemic is to contain and isolate, and that was before the advent of scientific experts - just common sense.    😷

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Hind sight in these matters is a wonderful thing.

Perhaps we have too many scientists involved for a start ,all offering different opinions ,none of which are particularly the best. It is alarming really that this virus has shut so many countries down.....is it really just an alarmist reaction or is something known about this virus that has been kept from the public ? We as a country experience health crises most years & never in my 69 years have i known economies to be shut down.

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Disease is a constant threat to humanity,  we've had SARS, MERS, Ebola and now Swine Flu in Africa; plus of course Corvid19 which has proved particularly contagious.  The reason for the lock down, was to save the NHS from being swamped, they initially toyed with the idea of herd immunity, and imo ultimately still do.  Whilst there have been varied reports on the effects of the virus, little is still known about it's long term effects, whether victims gain immunity or whether the virus is mutating.  We still haven't established the exact origins of this outbreak either. As I said, my view was there before we ever heard of Corvid 19 (see board history);   so not hindsight,  just basic common sense.    😷

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Obs,

This virus (not called Corvid 19) is the worst combination of infectivity and death rate since the Spanish Flu. It is a unique threat since the population is 100% susceptible to it. That level of susceptible population hoes not happen at all most years. Its effect on patients and the rate of hospitalisation along with the duration of treatment almost overwhelmed the NHS, even with augmentation from the military and private hospitals.  That we escaped the NHS from being overwhelmed was because the average number actually affected has only been under 7% but that low rate is solely because of lockdown.

No one ever, it is in the minutes of SAGE, toyed with letting the infection rage until herd immunity was established. However with a global pandemic the only way it actually goes away is by herd immunity generated by immunisation or infection. Sage have always said they prefer the immunisation route.  

The tests for the virus in the PHE labs use an RNA replication technique to amplify the concentration before testing. That allows the RNA to be sequenced and there is a project that has been doing just that from the start. It has demonstrated that there were over 1300 different importations starting this epidemic. The reality is that theyare tracking the virus mutations very carefully and using them to track the relationship between cases.

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Just trying to work out where you differ from me ?   Highly contagious/ "solely because of lock down"/  immunisation or infection (may not be a matter of choice) /  importation (said that from the beginning) hence they should have had a quarantine in place in Feb/,Mar.  😷

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1 hour ago, Observer II said:

Just trying to work out where you differ from me ?   Highly contagious/ "solely because of lock down"/  immunisation or infection (may not be a matter of choice) /  importation (said that from the beginning) hence they should have had a quarantine in place in Feb/,Mar.  😷

Well you keep giving it the wrong name. Your claim that they pursued a plan of herd immunity by infection was and remains false. You failed to link the infectivity with high mortality and extended hospital stays which is what makes it so dangerous. You also claimed that they didn't know whether the virus is mutating, which is also false. That is much blunter than I wanted to be,  but you asked.

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It doesn't make any difference how nuch of an expert you were before the event Obs, as no-one in position of influence has taken on your sage and far seeing advice. Mistakes have been made across the board by many experts (a lot of whom are even now back-paddling and denying what they said at the time). Meanwhile we are where we are, and I'm afraid that we have many missteps ahead of us. The same people who were arguing for and against the lock-down are arguing for and against lifting the lock-down and meanwhile us mere mortals can only sit at home and ignore the BBC and Sky news.

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1 hour ago, Confused52 said:

Well you keep giving it the wrong name. Your claim that they pursued a plan of herd immunity by infection was and remains false. You failed to link the infectivity with high mortality and extended hospital stays which is what makes it so dangerous. You also claimed that they didn't know whether the virus is mutating, which is also false. That is much blunter than I wanted to be,  but you asked.

David Halpern was an original member of SAGE and first used the term "herd immunity";  it's my belief that was the original intention, until they realised the effect on the NHS.  Of course infectivity is the major concern, which I said when this thing first started,  and whilst young and fit people can survive, old and infirm people don't, so an obvious direct link with deaths. Whilst we can no longer rely on the media for sound news, there are claims that the virus has mutated, so take it or leave it.   Has for being "blunt" - no problem, just say what you think, it's an opinion at the end of the day, and we can take it or leave it.  😷😷  btw Asp; I don't claim to be an expert, I'm merely applying common sense to a situation.

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Okay Obs I'll just accept that your common sense is superior to that of everyone in a position to make decisions. Happy? 😉

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5 hours ago, Observer II said:

David Halpern was an original member of SAGE and first used the term "herd immunity";  it's my belief that was the original intention, until they realised the effect on the NHS.  Of course infectivity is the major concern, which I said when this thing first started,  and whilst young and fit people can survive, old and infirm people don't, so an obvious direct link with deaths. Whilst we can no longer rely on the media for sound news, there are claims that the virus has mutated, so take it or leave it.   Has for being "blunt" - no problem, just say what you think, it's an opinion at the end of the day, and we can take it or leave it.  😷😷  btw Asp; I don't claim to be an expert, I'm merely applying common sense to a situation.

Herd Immunity is a general term in epidemiology and it can be achieved as I said, look it up. I does not have the single connotation which you are trying to ascribe in order to confer blame, if that is indeed what you are doing.

The project to track the virus only works because it mutates, what I disagreed with was that they don't know, that assertion of lack of knowledge is what was false. This virus like all RNA viruses is mutating and it is being watched like a hawk while it does so. The word is that nothing so far undermines the vaccine designs, but it could.

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I think the economy really going belly up across the globe would be a far greater crisis for world health & survivability than  allowing covid to run its course. Shortages of food & essentials could cause a much bigger death toll .

As for herd immunity....surely that can be achieved in time but contagion is much more likely with modern day population densities than in the previous millennia that have been taken to produce herd immunity for most diseases. I suppose a new virus which is detrimental to life,globally, has really been dealt with quite well in the circumstances.

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Obs, I swear to you on my life that this story is true.  I spent yesterday in Houston, undergoing multiple Mohs skin cancer surgery, it took over six hours and for most of that time I discussed the pros and cons of the shutdown with the surgeon.  Surprise surprise, he totally agreed with me, he also said that every medical person in his circle felt the same.  The lockdown was and is the wrong way to go, he was adamant that closing the schools was the most stupid thing ever.  School agers were in absolutely no danger from this virus, but their education has been stunted (he has three kids and he said that cyber schooling was useless) and it will take years to catch up.  Plus the number of parental child abuse cases along with spousal abuse has sky rocketed, many of his friends are treating the victims.  Alcohol and drug abuse is also thru the roof compared to normal.

A report out today states that, the shutdown has cost the US economy one trillion dollars and has in fact saved very few lives.  Social distancing, hygiene and to a lesser degree, masks, are the main factors in the control of the virus.

Surely, the opinions of the Houston medical staff, the home of the first heart transplant, mean something to you.  If not I can't imagine the depth of the sand into which your head must be thrust!

Also I'm applying for a Purple Heart for suffering through this left handed typing, the only thing not stitched up and screaming pain,is my left middle finger. Good news is I can still salute BLM !

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