Israel Iran

[Bill]

Iran’s response to the Israeli missile attack on it’s consulate was a long time coming but was almost as predictable as Christmas.

Mr Sunak condemned the “attack” but that wouldn’t be the words I’d have used.  

Bit of a tricky situation out there because they’re all a bit bonkers. Sending more of our jets to the region overnight will no doubt be seen as support for Israel. To me it would have been better to keep out of it and not take sides. After all, in this instance, Israel fired first so the right to retaliate applies.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

The bottom line in all this Bill, is the Zionist belief that Israel was promised to them by God, and their wish to create a greater Israel for the Jews alone,  thus the current and past genocide of the Palastinians.  Many in the right wing Israeli Cabinet view the Palastinians as sub-human, to be eradicated;   a supreme irony, given their own history.  They know, that in order to achieve their aim, they will require US support, as the eradication of Muslim Arabs, will no doubt incite the whole Arab world to fight them.  So they need to create a Regional war and the apparent target is Iran, which they are now doing.  Israel has crossed all the lines of global legality and is now a pariaha.   Netanyanu, their PM needs to remain in office to escape prison for corruption, so a war is in his personal interest.   I suppose if one were a bible thumping christian,  this situation could be described as the "end time",  and Netanyanu, as the anti-Christ.    😢

[Bill]

All of that is true.

The best we can hope for now is that Israel takes it on the chin and doesn’t escalate it further but I’m not holding my breath on that one.

As far as I know, it’s not just the Israelis that think they’ve got God given rights because the Palestinians have some just as whacky ideas when it comes to killing Jews.

I’m not a deeply religious person but I believe that having a religious belief isn’t a bad thing. I believe that in the distant past there was someone / something ( a God) who set out rules by which we should all live our lives. These basic rules will no doubt have been corrupted over time by the various leaders to suit their own ideology giving rise to the belief that their God was the only one to believe in.

The whole world could do with a second coming to remind us we’re all neighbours on the same planet and that we need to behave ourselves. 😊

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Afraid Israel will persist Bill, as I said, Netanyanu's freedom is at stake and he's surrounded by extremist nutcases in any case.  What's more, they have a powerful influence over the US political system, as major doners to US politicians to the point of being the tail that wags the dog.   The US politicians get kick backs from the arms manufacturers,  thus have an interest in permanent warfare.   But the days of fighting rag heads with a AK47 are over,  the rag heads now possess modern missiles, and will soon have nukes, to even up the odds.   As a minimum, all this will drive up our energy and food bills, as supply chains are compromised, so a bleak future for us too.    😢

[Observer II]

What's amazed me about the reaction to the Iranian attack on Israel, is the idea that sending high numbers of drones and missiles, is in itself, an over reaction to the original Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate.   Israel, has the most protected air space in the World, known as the "Iron Dome",  with a comprehensive anti-missile defence system.  What the Iranians have done, with this attack, for which they gave advanced warning to the US;   is demonstrate that the "Iron Dome" system can be overwhelmed, thus making Israel vulnerable to such an attack.   As shown in Ukraine,  the modern tactic for overwhelming a missile defence is to shower it with relatively cheap drones, which are designed to soak up expensive defensive missile strikes,  while cruise missiles and new hyper-sonic missiles reach their targets.   So, with drones costing around $2,000,  they are drawing SAM systems, costing over a $million each.   Thus in a war of attrition,  each attack would cost Israel $billions  and they would soon run out of SAM missiles. So this Iranian strike was designed to send a message, at no cost to human life, that the small land area of Israel can be completely destroyed by such attacks.   Will Israel take the message ?   I doubt it.    Though by now, they've realised they are in a no win situation,  their extreme political view will drive them to further extremes.    😢

[Confused52]

On reporting that Iran "meant to fail" in its attack, and that it had given advanced warning of its strikes, Mr Kirby (US National Security Council spokesman) says this is "categorically false".

Over 300 devices launched 7 got through. Drones are an asymmetric threat but you need to understand that you have used a falsehood to determine what lesson is to be learned. The key difference was surely that there was a two hour transit time for the drones and they had to cross friendly airspace during that time. The launch would have been detected by an AWACS and fighter jets used to take the drones out at lower cost than you believe, since the target tracking will have been airborne. The situation is entirely different from Ukraine where air superiority between launch point and the targets is not in the hands of the defender.

[Observer II]

So. on the basis of your theory, none of the drones should have got past Iraq !     The reality is, that they did, and swamped the Israeli air defence system, with a pretty fireworks display in the Israeli sky.   But the missiles that were intended to get through, the hyper sonics,  did get through and hit their intended targets.   This means that the iron dome is not fool proof and Israel no longer immune from such strikes.  No doubt the Israelis will now be worried and will no doubt seek to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles, but this may prove difficult, as they will be deep underground in the Iranian mountains.   The temptation of course, will be for the Israelis to use their nukes, which takes us closer to WW3.    😑

[Bill]

Iran couldn’t just ignore Israel’s blowing up of their consulate otherwise it would be a green light for more of the same from the IDF. Iran made it clear they’d response but said that it would be a telegraphed one-off event and they had no intentions to escalate the situation so it's upto Israel what happens next.

Iranian forces aren’t stupid and would know that most of what they threw at Israel wouldn’t have made it through. They’d have needed to throw the kitchen sink at them if their intention was to inflict harm but as it stands, Iran has gained significant intelligence about Israel’s defence system that would be useful to them if things escalate.

As Confused rightly says, conventional drones at that range and would be easy meat for the fighter jets and cruise missiles wouldn’t fare much better either. The Iron Dome took care of most of the rockets and I doubt the Israelis are particularly bothered how much each of these missiles cost. The ballistic missiles on the other hand seem to be the main ones that got though, but fortunately, these were only used against remote airfields rather than densely populated areas.

Interestingly I was reading the other day about all new British made anti-missile laser system that’s currently being installed on our warships. This is said to capable of intercepting drones and missiles at the cost of just £10 per shot but it's still a long way off a photon torpedo.  

Dragon Fire Laser

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

They weren't "remote airfields" Bill;   they were the airfield used for the Damascus raid. plus an intell site that organised it.   😑

[Bill]

Remote as in out in the desert.

 

Bill

[Confused52]

2 hours ago, Observer II said:

So. on the basis of your theory, none of the drones should have got past Iraq !     The reality is, that they did, and swamped the Israeli air defence system, with a pretty fireworks display in the Israeli sky.   But the missiles that were intended to get through, the hyper sonics....

That was not what I said, I said that the taking out of drones was most likely done by aircraft. No weapons system has a 100% success rate, ever. So I didn't say anything other that the fact of how many did get through.

You suggest that they got through and swamped the iron dome. That is not at all clear, Iron Dome is for protecting civilian concentrations as I understand it and did seem to work. I think the pictures around were the of the system working near Jerusalem. There has been plenty of practice over the years and it is worth remembering that the launchers are mobile.

Iran does not have hypersonic missiles, that's your mates in Russia who say they have those, as do the Chinese.

[Observer II]

Well, judging by the night sky pictures on the news, those aircraft didn't down that many !    Of the 7 ballistic missiles, all 7 got through to hit their targets,  the strike has no doubt identified SAM sites and radar targets for next time.    The estimated cost to Israel is over a $billion in SAM costs,  which is  unaffordable and not easily replaceable,  so if Iran has the quantity of drones and missiles, it will win in the case of attrition.  Just a note on the response of HMG,  Sunack complained of the numbers of drones etc, as if it was relevant, without any condemnation of the Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, despite it being an act of war, and contrary to the Vienna Convention, ignored by the UN;  who seem to believe that the West (US) can make the rules, but also break them as it suits.   btw. I'm sure if Iran doesn't have hyper-sonic missiles, they will soon be supplied with them by Russia and China,  just like we are supplying Ukraine !     😑

[Confused52]

Everyone assumes that attacking an embassy or consulate breaks the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, like you did Obs. The Iranians should take it up with Syria because the Convention is purely bi-lateral and the Israelis were committing something but it was wasn't breaking that convention because the establishment was not in Israel.

There is a lot of inventing effects of International law going on these days. It often assumes someone has the power to intervene and punish one party or another which isn't always true. (See Putin)

[Bill]

I think your logic’s a bit screwed up there Obs.

It doesn’t matter how many drones they had or how cheap they were because they proved to be just cannon fodder and missile practice for the air force. Long range water pistols would have probably been more effective. If the jets can shoot them all down with just bullets then it’s probably going to cost Iran more. 

As for the 30 or so cruise missiles, well they’re not cheap but again the jets took them all down just as easily as our aircraft did with the German V1 flying bombs. An expensive and futile waste by Iran. I suppose Iran could always send them a bill for the target practice. 😊

What Iran seem to have plenty of is the medium range missiles similar to what they supply to Hamas and others. I don’t know what they cost, but they won’t exactly be cheap, possibly the same as the very much smaller missiles that Iron Dome uses. And if that’s the case, there’s probably no point or economic advantage for Iran but it does make for a good firework show.

The only thing that did get through was the long-range ballistic missiles and they’re definitely not going to be cheap to keep firing off. It’s not quite so easy to shoot these down but by all accounts they haven’t quite yet got it right and the majority of them failed to even reach Israel. As holes go, the one near the runway was a mega expensive one for Iran.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

The Iranians will now have a clear picture of the location of radar sites, which lit up to monitor the drones, so can now programme their ballistic missiles accordingly.  Alas, the Israelis. led by Zionist fanatics, are destined to take this all the way, as they simply can't afford to lose their dominance in the Region gifted by technical superiority, which made them feared.   But with the equalisation of weaponary, that fear factor has now gone, and  this has dented any sense of Israeli superiority (although they won't admit it).  They simply have to remove anyone who can stand up to them, but in the case of Iran, they require US assistance; so they will continue on a suicidal course of creating a Regional war in the M/East by dragging the US into it, which then means the involvement of Russia and the probability of WW3.   So when the proverbial hits the fan and the sirens sound, and you place your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye;  take comfort in getting what you wanted !    btw. Con - the attack on the Iranian Embassy was "an act of war", which legally provides for a response in kind.      😑

[Bill]

Surface to air missile sites together with their radar are mobile affairs otherwise they’d be useless. But they don’t even need these because the drones are so slow that the jets own radar has ample time to identify them and knock them out like a duck shoot. The bottom line is that the current drones and even the cruise missiles represent little more than an annoyance.

The Iron Dome sites are also mobile and don’t even have to be located at the target site due to having a range of over 40km. So, if Iran thinks they know where these are, they’d better think again.

There’s no doubt that Israel’s streets ahead with the technology and if they were to respond with the same number of missiles, Iran wouldn’t fare well and both sides know this. There’s no doubt either that Israel started all this and in my mind that makes them the aggressor. Iran have basically said they’re prepared to call it quits so any further action by Israel would only make matters worse.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

The drones are there merely to absorb the defence,  at a cheaper cost ratio,  the cruise, and more so, the ballistics are there to take out targets.  We can wait and see the next fireworks show,   and see who has the most missiles and funding to sustain them.    😑

[Bill]

You don’t want to believe everything you read on the web Obs. Some of the media seem to be using assumptions rather than facts in order to create a headline grabbing story and I suspect the reality wouldn’t be half as interesting. The Israeli military aren’t stupid. They might have some of the best and most expensive weaponry around but they’re not going to be using multimillion dollar devices when a pea shooter can do the job equally as well.

Take the Iranian drones for example. Being propeller driven, they’re extremely slow, making them a doddle for a modern air force to shoot down. Target lock, burst of cannon fire and move onto the next. The drones might be cheap but they’re nowhere as cheap as bullets so in this case it’s guaranteed to be costing the Irans more.

Cruise missiles are a hell of lot more expensive but they’re not super-fast either, or particularly agile and so can be taken out by the most basic heat seeking SAM or AAM. The cruise will typically cost well over a million while the missiles that shoots them down would be cost about a twentieth of that. Just like the drones, none of these reached their target so again it would have cost Iran more.

Each Iron Dome missile cost £47k (about the same as a standard heat seeking SAM) so I doubt a Shahab2 Iranian intermediate range missile is going to cost any less? On top of that, Iron Dome uses some cleaver AI to identify each incoming missile, assigning higher priorities to any heading for sensitive or populated areas. Those that it calculates will miss are simply ignored and allowed to fall to ground harmlessly, thus saving on costs. Leaving aside the cost of implementing Iron Dome, the cost of the missiles it used would have been less than less that it cost Iran.

I’m not saying the IDF didn’t used any of the more expensive stuff in this exchange but cost wise it’s certainly not quite as one sided as some make out.

It's not exactly rocket science. 😂

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Think your first sentence should apply to you Bill !    Israel is an extremely small and confined area, and I doubt IDF aircraft will be allowed to overfly neighbouring arab countries, thus limiting their attack time, and no doubt their airfields would be targeted too.   In Ukraine, the SAM systems have all but been wiped out, using this tactic.   Still, pointless to speculate at this stage, but better to await the fireworks to come.    And it will be no longer rocket science, when the rockets run out !   😑

[Bill]

I don’t believe everything I read on the net Obs, I might get some info from it, but my thoughts are my own and I think are based mainly on logic and common sense.

The idea being put out on the web and suggested by yourself was that Iran’s on to a winner by having loads of weaponry that cost next to nothing while Israel will bankrupt itself trying to defend against such a huge onslaught. Look what actually happened though, do the sums and in all probability, exactly the opposite is closer to the truth.

I can’t see why the IDF would need to overfly other countries BTW unless they decided to make some kind of attack. If they were to do something like that, then they’d probably just use ballistic missiles, but these would likely be a lot more accurate and sophisticated that what Iran used against them. It’s also been suggested that they may use cyber tech that could be just as damaging, and this wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

As for comparisons with the Ukraine, well it’s a very different situation out that way so meaningful comparisons are just not possible.

Too late for all this sort of stuff. My glass is as empty as my head. Goodnight from me.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

As I said Bill, let's wait and see what happens and just hope it doesn't reach our little part of the world.    The reason the IDF jets need the space, is to have time to shoot down the drones outside their own SAM defence zone, otherwise they may get hit by their own SAMs.    An Israeli strike on Iran will probably be delivered via submarine, as their jet don't have the range.   😢

[Bill]

It looks like Israel had finally responded with a limited missile strike against specific military / weapon production sites targets rather than the countries capital. Not much actual news coming out just yet, but the mobile phone footage did show significant burning on the ground and explosions in the sky. The Iranians said they’re not that worried and aren’t planning any further response so a bit of hope there that this is an end to it.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Sounds very responsible of the Iranians, but I doubt it will sate Israeli desire to be number one in the M/East and involve the US.   Seems Biden has given them permission to assault Raffa, " in a humanitarian manner";   an impossibilty  that will see even more women and kids slaughtered.     😢

[Bill]

Fingers crossed the recent tit for tat fighting seems to have ended with both sides seeing common sense and both playing things down. I’m sure there’ll be extreme radicals on both sides that won’t be too happy with this outcome, but the leaders of both countries had to temper any ambitions and consider their positions on the wider world stage.

Let’s just hope it can remain that way.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Can't see that happening Bill, unfortunately.  Natanyanu has a personal interest in remaining PM, as he's under threat of conviction for corruption and jail.   His cabinet, and indeed the majority of Jews, are bent on eliminating Hammas, and indeed all Palastinians within the greater Israel.   Their strategy of keeping neighbours cowed by fear of their military superiority and will, no longer applies.   So this age old biblical vendetta will continue, until they've seized their promised land - from the river to the sea, a view shared by the arabs.      😢