Pandemic on it's way.

[asperity]

Peace and love man

[observer]

Talking to the wrong guy Asp: from my "experience" the only kind of folk that "panic" are those suddenly awoken from a complacent position by a sudden realisation of reality. I'm certainly not "panicking"; I'm resigned to the fact that most lemmings are not risk aware at the best of times; hence the apparent need for adverts to show them how to blow their noses! Your not related to the Captain of the Titanic by any chance, are you - he dismissed the idea of icebergs so far south!

[asperity]

I didn't suggest that you personally were panicking Obs, just that you are trying to instill a sense of panic into the topic and, in common with the media it seems, you are failing to rouse any. This may have something to do with all the dire warnings of disaster we've been fed over the last 30 years, none of which has come to anything. The real disasters have hit us without any warnings at all from the "experts" (expert = a has been under pressure )

 

Incidentally the iceberg that the Titanic hit was much,much further south than was normal for that time of year and, as such, was totally unexpected by the vastly experienced Master

[Eagle]

PROFESSOR JOHN OXFORD, VIROLOGY EXPERT AT BARTS AND THE LONDON

If the avian flu H5N1 virus had spread from human to human like this then I would be extremely worried. It would be top of my Richter scale.

 

But this swine flu worries me less because as a population we have a basic immunity to H1N1. Outside of Mexico there have been no deaths, so it doesn't seem so aggressive.

 

And not only are we coming up to the summer, which makes it less likely for these viruses to spread as well, but Britain has enough antiviral drugs for half of the population.

 

So we should not panic in any way. This does not look as though it is going to be a virus that sweeps the world and causes huge mortality.

 

 

DR ALAN MACNALLY, MOLECULAR BIOLOGY EXPERT AT NOTTINGHAM TRENT UNIVERSITY

I still think we are a day or so away from knowing what the threat is. WHO has gone to stage four, so we know there will be an epidemic stemming from direct contact with these cases in Mexico. We will see more cases.

 

But we will have to wait to see how it spreads to know if there will be a pandemic that sweeps nations.

 

The key thing is how lethal a virus is it. Outside of Mexico it has not caused any deaths, which is good news. And we are prepared for it.

 

We should have a complete picture in the next five to seven days to answer these questions.

 

 

KEITH PLUMB, FELLOW OF THE INSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS

There is no evidence of pandemic in Europe at this point in time but should the threat increase, the UK has a wealth of scientific and engineering expertise which can be deployed to ramp up the countermeasures necessary to protect the population at large.

 

Let's keep things in perspective. This is not 1918; and with over 30 million doses of antiviral treatments, effective against H1N1 available in the UK right now we are well placed to combat any outbreak.

 

We should also bear in mind that there are two flu-vaccine manufacturers in the UK (Novartis and Medimmune) and whilst there may be capacity issues, both companies are technically capable of producing appropriate vaccines.

[asperity]

I've heard it all now!! On the ITV evening news a reporter was interviewing a man, described as the first in the UK to catch "Swine Flu" by human to human contact (did the bloke he caught it off catch it from a pig? I doubt it!), who was "struggling to come to terms with his illness". Pathetic It's the flu not the Bubonic Plague for Pete's sake (no, not you Peter, another one ) Such is our main stream media today. They ignore the important things going on in the world and exaggerate minor things.

[Eagle]

Two further gems from the new celeb:-

 

"The first we knew about it was when we got back to this country" and "We are going to get off the plane with the plague" Yea right.

[Eagle]

Symptoms of Swine Flu:- Headache, Sore Throat,Fever, Nausea, Vomitting, Diarrhoea, Coughing,Lethargy, Hallucinations.

 

Symptoms of Mexican Holiday:-Headache, Sore Throat,Fever, Nausea, Vomitting, Diarrhoea, Coughing,Lethargy, Hallucinations

[observer]

Asp, think your missing my point: which is:- that the Authorities have totally failed to "contain" this outbreak and prevent global spread; irrespective of how aggressive or otherwise the virus happens to be. Which is serious in itself, because it demonstrates that IF it were more aggressive or something like bubonic, death rates would be exeedingley high. To use a nautical analogy for your benefit; submarines are "compartmentalised" and fitted with water tight doors; so in the event of an ingress of water, it can be "contained", thus saving the majority of crew and the vessel. "Containment" and isolation has not been achieved in this instance.

[Lt Kije]

Containment" and isolation has not been achieved in this instance

 

Nor will it ever it this age of global travel

 

Advocating isolationism now observer

[asperity]

Obs, given that the incubation period of this virus is in the region of a week what you are suggesting is akin to closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. And in this case, as in so many before, the "authorities" and "experts" have massively over-reacted egged on by an increasingly hysterical media.

[observer]

Asp; given a wide enough net, adequate screening systems and use of quarantine measures, they have a chance to prevent spread. Yes Kyje; you've now noticed one of the downsides to global mobilty!

[asperity]

Have you actually used an airport recently Obs? The security screening causes long enough queues, never mind health screening as well, with probably only a moderate chance of catching people with early onset of the illness.

[Lt Kije]

asperity, I don't think Obs uses airports, as he is an isolationist, he only holidays in England or is that Cheshire

[observer]

Oh dear, "inconvenience", well we can't have that can we, not even if our lives depended on it. We witnessed a classic example of how not to deal with this type of incident: flight returns to UK from Mexico, with over 200 tightly packed passengers, all breathing the same re-cycled air, lands at airport, greeted, kissed and hugged by loved ones, then away to their homes: one in Falkirk, who then passes the virus onto a friend, another to Devon to pass it on to the rest of her classmates - now tell me that that is dealing with the problem! As I've said: the flight passengers and crew should have been quaranteened in a commandeered airport hotel, until cleared by medical personel - inconvenient yes - but safer for the rest of us. I sincerely hope that Al Quaeda never get hold of a bio-weapon; cos with the incompetance of Governments and the complacency and stupidity of a large portion of the public; we wouldn't stand a cat in hells chance.

[Peter T]

If the government used the same methods as they do to detain terrorist suspects, the problem would be contained.

 

 

obs, perhaps people's rights get in the way of a common sense approach.

[asperity]

Did I mention "inconvenience"? I think I would describe it more as Impracticable to screen the thousands of people who use our airports every day. The only way to carry out your plan would be for everybody to go home and shut themselves into their own room having no contact with anybody else including close family (in fact especially close family - all that intimacy! )And when we've all starved ourselves to death then problem solved, no more human flu!! Ta-daaaaa!!

[Bazj]

be careful out there chaps.... the WHO have just confirmed that there are now even more confirmed cases...... I'm not sure I should oput the figure because I don't want to scare people..... it truly is shocking...... a deadly worldwide plague seems to be on the horizon....OK, since the first known case of this Swine Flu; a flu which can pass from people as easy as looking at one another, the worldwide total now stands at..... 620 confirmed cases...

 

Hmmmm now call me a cynic, but surely something which is supposed to be passed so easily would have at least hit a thousand cases by now?

 

Even Sky have a special hotline number to call so it must be serious!!

[Lt Kije]

What about ships, and those that work on docks unloading them. If you stopped them how quickly would the UK stop, when it cannot get the raw materials it needs, don't forget our coal for the Power stations is imported , and what about oil

[Eagle]

Be careful with the pig iron.

[observer]

Funny how Kyje has strayed onto the need for more national self sufficiency! Asp; what's impractical about non-essential workers limiting their movements; I sugested quaranteening the flights from Mexico; we now learn, that the guy from Falkirk went to a concert to share his bug with thousands of folk - now are you suggesting that is a rational response to the situation - as I said, if terrorists ever use this method of attack we've absolutely no chance. Baz - don't count your chickens (or should it be piglets!); this bug can now be around for while, and could mutate into a more aggressive form according to some experts.

[Lt Kije]

Funny how you did not answer, you know as well as anyone that the Uk is not set up for self sufficiency, As you support this would you like to tell us what make of car you drive or the make of Tv you watch and where they were made

[observer]

Did not answer what? I've been banging on about "self-sufficiency" for yonks; and liberal free traders like you have poo pooed the suggestion.

[asperity]

By "non - essential workers limiting their movements" I presume you mean that no-one should fly off on holiday because holidays are non-essential. Well they might be to you Obs, but to a lot of people holidays are an essential part of their lives, and who has the authority to tell them otherwise. As for the bloke from Falkirk going clubbing and spreading his germs around, well did he know he had the flu? I doubt it because if he did he wouldn't have been feeling well enough to do anything but go to bed. Plus he was probably doing his fellow clubbers a favour by giving them a dose of what is now being described as a mild form of the virus, allowing their bodies to build up a resistance should a more virulent form come along later (a sort of mass vaccination if you like ) Life is risky so we have to go through it as best we can and face up to the hazards as they come to meet us, not hide ourselves away from them hoping they will pass us by. you have to live to be alive Obs!

[observer]

I partly concure with your last sentence, providing that the opportunity for "risk taking" rests on one's individual decision - some prat coughing and sneezing over me doesn't give me that choice. As for the Falkirk guy, if he had been quaranteened on return from Mexico, he wouldn't have had the opportunity to share his bugs.

[asperity]

You have the choice of staying away from places where you get pratts sneezing all over you, or you can take the chance. That's life!!! And how many people are you going to quarantine? Everybody arriving from Mexico? Or everybody who has been on a flight where there might have been someone who had visited Mexico in the last week or month? Or everybody who had been on the same flight as someone who had been on a flight with someone else who might have been on a flight with someone who had been to Mexico in the last month or week or had maybe sat next to someone in a cafe who had............................well i could go on but you might just catch my drift