Better late than never I suppose

[asperity]

If we listen to your arguments Obs we will go from lockdown to lockdown every time someone is admitted to hospital. If you want to stay at home do so, just don't expect everone else to bow to your anxieties.

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, asperity said:

If that's what you want to believe, stay at home, wear a mask or three when you go outside, avoid going within any potential virus carriers (i.e. anybody) and live in fear. We have to stop panicking every time someone says "mutant" or "variant". Covid 19 is here to stay and no amount of "re-planning" is going to change that.

By the way, there's nothing wrong with my ears and I can recognise BS when I hear it.

Shame you don't recognise it when you write it.

[asperity]

I'm not the one saying "I'm right and everyone else is making up conspiracies" am I Con? I just say what I believe is true, I don't expect everyone else to take what I say as Gospel.

[Observer II]

3 hours ago, asperity said:

If we listen to your arguments Obs we will go from lockdown to lockdown every time someone is admitted to hospital. If you want to stay at home do so, just don't expect everone else to bow to your anxieties.

No Asp; the idea is to apply very gradual relaxations in the lockdown, in line with the "R" factor, being maintained below 1.   Bearing in mind also. that the vax can take a few weeks to kick in, an allowance needs to be made for that before opening up.   Somethings are much too dangerous imo, to allow at the moment - namely any internal crowding such as nightclubs, theatres and sports venues.  Any association needs to be outdoors and spaced.   Alas, if folk jump the gun, we'll be back to square one in no time - again.    😷

[asperity]

You carry on relaxing at your leisure Obs, but you will find that the rational world will leave you hiding behind your sofa.

[Observer II]

Nothing rational in running round like headless chickens.       😷

[asperity]

My point exactly Obs.

[Bill]

The Pfizer vaccine was said to offer up to 95% protection against the original virus so the was a 1 in 20 chance of getting ill if you got infected but now with the new strain this has dropped to a maximum of 80% or 1 in 5 and that’s four times worse. What I don’t understand is, is this just a mathematical statistic or does it mean that the vaccine just doesn’t work for some people?

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

It just bolsters the immune system Bill;   allowing resistance to the virus - you still get it, but hopefully it doesn't prove fatal, although there are now cases of deaths of folk who have had two vaccinations.   The problem area is the young, who have strong immune systems capable of resisting the virus. BUT they can still spread contamination, which can threaten older groups or disrupt the school environment.  It's strange that the 1918 Flu pandemic had the opposite effect, attacking the youngest demographic.    😷

[Bill]

Yes I understand it increases the immunity but I doubt everyone has the same level of reaction to the vaccines to develop antibodies. I thought I read somewhere that antibody testing on people that had been vaccinated showed some didn’t generate as many as others but I’m not sure about this.

Probably the biggest worry right now is that with the majority vaccinated but with a virus still spreading it increases the chances of the virus essentially developing it’s own natural immunity and mutating into a vaccine resistant strain. So the quicker we can stamp it out the less chance there is of this ever happening.

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

The Pfizer vaccine was said to offer up to 95% protection against the original virus so the was a 1 in 20 chance of getting ill if you got infected but now with the new strain this has dropped to a maximum of 80% or 1 in 5 and that’s four times worse. What I don’t understand is, is this just a mathematical statistic or does it mean that the vaccine just doesn’t work for some people?

 

Bill 😊

that is a very good question to which I have not heard a full answer. What I have heard suggests that the delta variant has partial vaccine escape so something about the genes that make it up is not as well matched with the antibodies produced by the vaccine for the original virus. That will I think apply equally to antibodies produced by natural exposure to earlier versions of the disease. I think that of the two options you set out that counts as the mathematical statistic. I have not heard that it is a characteristic of any individuals or demographics that reduce the effectiveness. The information I have given is partially based on the PHE research released in the last two days.

[Davy51]

Perhaps the secret is a lifetime of acquired immunity from ,such as ,eating your butties with grubby hands or laughing off the cuts & grazes you got falling off your bike. Maybe over use of antiseptics & antibiotics has damaged natural immunity.

[Bill]

That’s very true Davy. I have an abnormally high antibody count and used to be hounded to give blood on a monthly basis rather than once a year. I’ve always put this down to having what some saw as a crappy doctor who’d hardly ever prescribe medicines and as a result, my own immune system probably got stronger. It still doesn’t stop me from caching the odd bug but most of the time it’s gone the following day.  

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

 

This is the latest data on the demographic distribution of cases in Warrington in the public domain. No doubt the council have better data. Each line is a 5 year age group and the number is the rolling rate (7 days) of cases per 100000 of that Age group in Warrington. Each line of data is on a logarithmic scale so it separates the lines out vertically in order to see the trends. Where a line has the rate zero it is not shown, that is why 65 to 69   seems to start only on 1st June and 90+ age group is missing altogether. there are generally 6 or so days for one person to pass it to the next. So the break out seems to start on the 16 May with 15 to 19 year olds who caught it 6 days earlier on the 10th May. So that would be before the last relaxation. Looks like kids then parents and then grandparents to me but you may all see different patterns. Apart from Obs and his cohort behind the settee (very wisely) it is now spreading to the older folks. This data is five days old so the case numbers will be much higher. How do you justify further opening up or pausing? Should we be going backwards even. The time from symptoms to hospital is a week and the time to death is another week. So the number of hospitalisations is only now about to emerge (no extra yet) and deaths are at least another week after that. Do you think there is enough data to even decide yet?

 

[asperity]

So you get symptoms and 2 weeks later you die? Doubtful.

[Confused52]

11 minutes ago, asperity said:

So you get symptoms and 2 weeks later you die? Doubtful.

Well if you know better than the outcomes in the SAGE CO-CIN data I bow to your superior knowledge. The times apply to a serious case and probably mostly to over 80s whom are generally not actually treated by the NHS because they are too frail. The point is that you cannot expect to see the changes in hospitalisation and death rates starting to go up yet. I await your next opinion and indeed invite it.

[asperity]

What you said was:

1 hour ago, Confused52 said:

The time from symptoms to hospital is a week and the time to death is another week.

with no qualification about age or seriousness of the illness. In fact just about any age group could have symptoms, not see the inside of a hospital or a doctor, and be right as rain a couple of weeks later. What were you accusing me of the other day? Using bogus statistics wasn't it?

[Confused52]

4 minutes ago, asperity said:

What you said was:

with no qualification about age or seriousness of the illness. In fact just about any age group could have symptoms, not see the inside of a hospital or a doctor, and be right as rain a couple of weeks later. What were you accusing me of the other day? Using bogus statistics wasn't it?

That is right but I didn't say anything about them all being the same, one figure never applies to biological processes does it? Now if that is all you want to comment on and not the information in the graphs , if so it might seem that you want to argue not discuss. Shall we try again?

[asperity]

What on earth has "one figure never applies to biological processes" have to do with your statement about the time from presenting with symptoms to death?

Your graph is very interesting and shows that the number of cases is rising, but that in itself isn't evidence of anything more than that given that a "case" doesn't inevitably become a "hospitalisation" or a "death". All it proves is that the virus is out there and just reinforces the fact that we have to live with it. Locking down the population just delays the inevitable and the "save the NHS" mantra doesn't work any more given that the NHS has more hospitals than Covid patients just now.

[Davy51]

I don't know about anyone else but we haven't even had a cold in this 15 month lockdown..I wonder if the onset of the common cold after freedom day will prove just as fatal ?

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Davy51 said:

I don't know about anyone else but we haven't even had a cold in this 15 month lockdown..I wonder if the onset of the common cold after freedom day will prove just as fatal ?

I hope that it will not. Lockdown hasn't stopped my hay fever so I envy your good result.

[Bill]

I think the almost complete lack of colds and flu over this last year shows that social distancing and possibly mask wearing is quite effective at stopping an airborne virus. This whole pandemic/lockdown episode must have given the medical profession the ideal opportunity to study the transmission mechanisms for things like colds and flu.

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

If certain new practises are proven to reduce transmission of colds and flu, then surely they need to become regular habits ?     😷

[Bill]

The bugs are always out there Obs even in the fresh air, it’s just the amount of them that you take in those causes the problem. I reckon that by now we’ve all breathed in some covid virus but in such small amounts that our bodies existing defences are enough to kill it off. Get too near others in a crowd though, especially where they’re breathing heavily or shouting and the amount of virus in the air will too much for us to overcome and we get sick.

I think there’s a lesson to be learned from all this, social distancing and mask wearing does reduce infections but at the end of the day most would sooner take the small risk to return to normality while a few, just like the Chinese will take things more seriously and even continue wearing masks.

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

The Chinese wear masks because of the polluted atmosphere in their cities not because of viruses, and have done for years. I believe personal hygeine is more effective than mask wearing in warding off bugs and long before Covid came along I used hand sanitiser every time I used public transport or pub toilets. There's some very unhygeinic people out there.