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Better late than never I suppose


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Bill and Obs I think you need to read the article, but what it says is that people who are admitted to hospital with something that is not Covid, and are not sick with Covid, but when tested are found to be positive for Covid, should not be counted in the statistics as being Covid patients. Such patients will, of course, have to be treated as infectious the same as any other patient with an infectious disease, and may need to be isolated.

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So, the short answer is yes, but I don’t see what difference that would make. I get the argument about someone dying of a heart attack that subsequently shows positive isn’t really a Covid death as such but that’s not what it’s saying is it.

Interesting though to read the comments from the conspiracy mob on this claiming that a change in the recording method is a government ploy to make the vaccine look more effective than it actually is. There could be a bit of that for all we know but I think few could argue that it’s the vaccine that’s knocked the numbers right down rather than any number manipulation.

 

Bill 😊

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The way I read it was that they want more accurate data so that they can assess the efficacy of the vaccines. In any case having more honest data can only assist the government in their decision making as it can't be helpful being told that there are "X" covid patients in hospital when the real story is that the real figure is a fraction of that. As for the government wanting to make the vaccines look more effective than they are, it seems to me that the government has been downplaying the role of vaccines with Boris claiming that it's lockdowns that are doing all the work.

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It helps if the data is accurate though Con, not a guestimate. And without accurate data you can't say whether the fraction is 9/10 or 1/10.

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as a simple case to try and clarify.

a person falls and seriously breaks a leg and is taken to hospital and has to have an operation to set the bones.

that person is tested as a precaution and found to have the covid virus but without showing any symptoms associated with the virus.

That person should not be counted as a covid admission but should be treated as infectious until proven otherwise.

you may have 100 people in the hospital who have positive covid tests but only three who are actually sick from the virus. The data at present does not distinguish between these so when reported 100 people have covid in the hos[ital.

it's the old six out of seven dwarves said they weren't happy, but only one said they were grumpy......:rolleyes:

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so we have a local rise in the number of people testing positive in warrington, read that on the news page this morning.

No mention of anybody dying from it though in warrington. vaccinated or unvaccinated. (recently)

Only 1 person hospitalised with the virus (whichever variant it happens to be)

Not had chance to look at the rest of the uk news so cannot say if there are any vaccinated people dying from the virus or not.

Just because you have been vaccinated does not mean you are immune just less likely to develop life threatening symptoms if you catch the covid virus.( like the flu vaccination in that respect.)

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It's funny how the number of cases rises and falls in line with the number of people tested. Almost like there's some correlation there...................................🤔

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The more you test the more you’ll find, that’s always been true but it’s the ratio of infections that’s important rather than the outright quantity.

Because most of these new infections are in the younger age groups that don’t show symptoms, mass random testing is the only way to establish the true picture. But even here it’s likely that it’ll be the sensible compliant people that’ll come forward for testing rather than those who think it’s all a waste of time, so it’s never going to be a truly representative sample.

 

Bill 😊

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What's sensible about being tested for a disease you have no symptoms of and probably don't have? Only 0.75% of the tests taken last week were positive. Read that again - Zero Point Seven Five Percent, not Seventy Five Percent!! So the worried really don't have anything to worry about, but I suppose they have to use up all the tests they've blown £Billions on before they go past their sell by date.

Meanwhile hundreds of people from countries around the world have come into the UK, without being required to comply with the quarantine regulations you or I would be held to if we went on a day trip to foreign, to snuggle together mask and social distance less, to have a chin wag about how they are managing to hoodwink the plebs. They call it the G7 conference.

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What's sensible about being tested for a disease you have no symptoms of and probably don't have? 

My point exactly. The people who can’t see the sense in it are more likely to be the ones that don’t see the sense in following the guidance and thereby be more likely to be infected. Equally, older people like us are just as unlikely to come forward for testing, believing it’s a waste of time if they’ve been double vaccinated and following the guidance. The bottom line is that without compulsory random testing, the figures are likely to be skewed but we have to hope that the statisticians allow for this.

Trying to get accurate data with such small numbers is really difficult, but it’s vitally important to get things right to be sure we can come out of lockdown permanently without having to bounce back due to another wave.

 

Bill 😊

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It's obvious that those in charge don't believe in the guidance that they themselves issue. It's also becoming more apparent that the general public are noticing this and are ignoring the guidance. All the testing does is produce big looking numbers which are actually statistically minute. Scare tactics in other words. Meanwhile businesses are going to the wall.

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Why on earth would anyone issue guidance they think is wrong? You say it’s obvious that they’re doing this but that’s just your personal opinion. Clearly, we all have differing views and so will some of the scientists, but the recommendations will no doubt be based on a consensus view. Some people aren’t following the rules because they’re fed up with it all or like you don’t see the point in it but I can’t see it as being because those issuing the guidance don’t believe in it.

The numbers might be small, but they’ve been small before and now their growing exponentially again as we can see from the latest graphs. It’s going to take another couple of months to get everyone vaccinated and that will definitely stop the growth so at the moment it’s a bit of a race to minimise deaths and the chance of another mutation that could potentially be vaccine resistant.

I don’t think it’ll take two month to reverse the growth so hopefully if we can continue to vaccinate at the same rate it can be done in a lot less than that.

 

😊

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You have to be going round with your eyes shut or not watching what our "leaders" are doing. They are all there at the G7 meeting not following any of the guidance us plebs are supposed to be following. Didn't you see the video of Hancock walking down Downing Street dutifully wearing his mask despite being in the open air, but as soon as he gets through the door of Number 10 and thinks he is out of sight off comes the mask. It's all theatre but they aren't very good actors. I've said it before, if lockdowns work why have we had 3 of them? If they don't work why do they keep reusing them? If vaccines work why are they acting as if they don't (Boris said the other week it was lockdowns doing the work not the vaccines). They don't believe their own stories, how are we expected to believe them?

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3 hours ago, asperity said:

What's sensible about being tested for a disease you have no symptoms of and probably don't have? Only 0.75% of the tests taken last week were positive. Read that again - Zero Point Seven Five Percent, not Seventy Five Percent!! So the worried really don't have anything to worry about, but I suppose they have to use up all the tests they've blown £Billions on before they go past their sell by date.

 

Please try not to use bogus statistics. On the last day for which data is so far published the positivity rate for the previous 7 days in Warrington was 2.5 % (6th June), 11 days earlier (26th May) it had been 0.3%. The number of tests in the town on the 7 days leading up to the 6th June was 6172 and the number in the seven days to 26 May was 6055. The new cases in the 7 days to 6th June was 167 and up to 26 May was 24. So you had a theory about tests but it wasn't right was it? There we more positive than the extra tests week on week, a rational person would interpret that as something to worry about.

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14 minutes ago, asperity said:

You have to be going round with your eyes shut or not watching what our "leaders" are doing. They are all there at the G7 meeting not following any of the guidance us plebs are supposed to be following. Didn't you see the video of Hancock walking down Downing Street dutifully wearing his mask despite being in the open air, but as soon as he gets through the door of Number 10 and thinks he is out of sight off comes the mask. It's all theatre but they aren't very good actors. I've said it before, if lockdowns work why have we had 3 of them? If they don't work why do they keep reusing them? If vaccines work why are they acting as if they don't (Boris said the other week it was lockdowns doing the work not the vaccines). They don't believe their own stories, how are we expected to believe them?

You have to listen properly. The vaccines are not very effective at stopping transmission from person to person, only 30% or so. The vaccines are efficient at preventing serious illness and death. However with the delta variant they are only 80% efficient in preventing illness and death even after two doses. So of the large number vaccinated with two doses one in 5 is at risk from the delta variant. So things are worse now because of the delta variant, not because anyone has changed their mind. We we were always told it depended on there being no problem variants, but we have one now that has partial vaccine escape characteristics. We have to re-plan, it is just common sense.

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27 minutes ago, Confused52 said:

Please try not to use bogus statistics. On the last day for which data is so far published the positivity rate for the previous 7 days in Warrington was 2.5 % (6th June), 11 days earlier (26th May) it had been 0.3%. The number of tests in the town on the 7 days leading up to the 6th June was 6172 and the number in the seven days to 26 May was 6055. The new cases in the 7 days to 6th June was 167 and up to 26 May was 24. So you had a theory about tests but it wasn't right was it? There we more positive than the extra tests week on week, a rational person would interpret that as something to worry about.

It depends what you're looking at. You are quoting figures for Warrington, I was giving the percentage of positive results for the UK for the previous 7 days. When put against the whole of the UK the Warrington sample is quite small to be using to make your point. You might even call it bogus if you wanted to sound clever.

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21 minutes ago, Confused52 said:

You have to listen properly. The vaccines are not very effective at stopping transmission from person to person, only 30% or so. The vaccines are efficient at preventing serious illness and death. However with the delta variant they are only 80% efficient in preventing illness and death even after two doses. So of the large number vaccinated with two doses one in 5 is at risk from the delta variant. So things are worse now because of the delta variant, not because anyone has changed their mind. We we were always told it depended on there being no problem variants, but we have one now that has partial vaccine escape characteristics. We have to re-plan, it is just common sense.

If that's what you want to believe, stay at home, wear a mask or three when you go outside, avoid going within any potential virus carriers (i.e. anybody) and live in fear. We have to stop panicking every time someone says "mutant" or "variant". Covid 19 is here to stay and no amount of "re-planning" is going to change that.

By the way, there's nothing wrong with my ears and I can recognise BS when I hear it.

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