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Covid 19 Simulator


Bill
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I’m getting so fed up stuck in all day with this virus, that yesterday I decided to see if I could write some simple software to model how the virus works and how it affected by changing different parameters. Amazingly it all seems to work and because it’s written in visual basic, you can actually see how the virus spreads over time with the infection graph showing the exponential growth that eventually decreases with herd immunity.

There are a lot of assumptions and quite a lot it doesn’t take account of, but the basic maths seems right. It’s based on a small town of 4000 households where the numbers are released daily (each second). From the start of the outbreak to the end usually takes just two or three minutes.

It’s a long time since I’ve used this kind of software, so I’m a bit rusty, but I think it should be possible to make it so that anyone here can give it a try if they’re interested. ???

 

Bill 😊

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