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More self inflicted woes -


Observer II

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Back on the mask situation, I hear that Morrison’s have today announce that they will refuse entry to anyone without a mask without a valid reason. It’s about time someone stood up and took a stronger stance. I’m sure that will make a lot of their customers feel that bit safer and possibly encourage those who shop where none mask wearing is more common to consider changing to Morrison’s.

The bloke I talked to while standing outside Sainsbury’s last week said they didn’t want any potentially violent situations, but in any case, they couldn’t refuse entry because it was a civil liberties thing.

 

Bill 😊

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There is a clear 60% majority in opinion polls for a more draconian lockdown, which is also being demanded by a majority of the scientists.  OK the rules are vague with some mixed messaging and plod has been dropping some clangers; but aside from those folk who are basically thick, there are a minority of deliberate malcontents, bent on ignoring the rules who clearly need taming.     😷

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Looks like overnight Sainsbury’s has joined in with Morrison’s by employing security staff on the doors so I wonder how long it will take before all the stores do this.

Obviously, there’s not enough police resources for them to be there all the time but if they could get some hardened door staff from the night-time economy who currently can’t work because of the shutdown, then they should be able to deter or apprehend anyone who kicks off over this.

I’ve just heard a bit more and it appears that unlike Morrison’s, Sainsbury’s say, they can’t prevent people from entering and security guards are only there to protect the staff from abuse. So not as tough as Morrison’s and not going far enough to meet the expectations of the majority of their customers.

 

Bill 😊

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Well Davy, I think it is the law and if the police were called in, they would arrest or issue a fine. I don’t see a problem if security step in and make a citizen’s arrest to stop someone breaking the law, providing they call the police in rather than taking them round the back for a good kicking.

 

Bill 😊   

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I’ve just been in contact with Sainsbury’s after receiving an email from them saying only one person per family can enter the store and anyone else has to wait outside. This makes a problem for me as Mrs Green despite looking well, can’t manage a weekly shop on her own. I would have thought that given we shop mid-week at pensioner times when it’s quiet they might allow this but the computer just says no. 

Will just have to see tomorrow and see if a real human will allow this and if not find an alternate store that will allow us both in.

 

Bill 😊

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even our local spar shop has somebody outside to limit numbers going in. mainly the post office side of things as the post office is limited to a four person maximum queue inside the shop.

surprising the number of people queuing up waiting to get in just to post a letter more surprising is the fact that there is a post box about ten foot from the spar carpark.

Don't think aldi have a one person per shopping limit but don't tell mrs sid as i am saving a fortune having her stay at home whilst i shop......🤫

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Well hopefully a real person might show a bit more understanding than some automated software but if not, we could give Aldi a try. It’s never busy in there at that time of the morning and it is our nearest supermarket. I’d offer to do the shopping myself but I’ve had a bit of a dodgy hand for the last year that can completely pack up at any time. Now that really would mean doing it single handed :)

The pair of us are getting to be a couple of old geriatrics.

 

Bill 😊

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Wallet Asp, that's one of them things people put money in isn’t it? I've heard about them, but since I got married nearly fifty years ago, I've never had much use for one. 

Did the shopping 8.45am this morning and no problem both getting in as there was nobody on the doors. Noticeably quiet inside at that time apart from me overreaching for a four pack of Mackeson with my dodgy hand which gave up and dropped all four cans to the floor. Should be fun opening one of these tonight.

 

Bill 😊

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Just after I got married, I decided that I didn’t want any arguments or money worries, so I just left all that sort of stuff to her. I honestly haven’t got a clue what’s in our bank these days, I never ask, and she never says so I could be a millionaire or possibly on my last penny. Some say I’m crazy but it’s sort of worked for me because as long as I’m warm and not going hungry then I’m happy enough, anyway that’s another story.

As for beer money, I can’t remember if I actually had a tenner once or just saw one. I can remember her giving me something like 2 bob to get a pint at a time when it was probably nearer a pound.

Just heard an OMG from downstairs so I guess they’ve just announced the death toll.  

Record national numbers again but did I see a bit of a levelling or drop in the infected numbers yesterday because that might indicate that we’ve finally reached a peak although even if that’s true, sadly the death rates will probably continue to rise for the next few weeks.

 

Bill 😊

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 minute ago, Observer II said:

The one in three can still spread the virus to the two in three and perhaps kill one of them.     :rolleyes:     😷      💀

No Obs, Asp was closer. One in three infected people have no symptoms. Asymptomatic sufferers are said to carry higher viral loads and hence be more infectious  and for longer than the rest of people. The corollary is that for every two reported cases there is another asymptomatic person who doesn't know to isolate.  It is not clear whether being an asymptomatic carrier in that way is having no ill-effects.

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7 minutes ago, Bill said:

Another question could be does this one in three include children or is it just adults?

 

Bill :)

Children are very likely to be asymptomatic apparently but six times more likely than adults to spread the infection according to ONS statistics on index cases in households. 

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I thought the definition of asymptomatic was anyone who could be infected but not display any symptoms so surely almost all children could be classed that way. Maybe I should of asked if children are classed and included as people in this statement because if they are then there would be very few asymptomatic adults. Did that make sense?

I’ve never heard of anyone who’s had the virus without really knowing about it but that’s the problem I suppose; it’s impossible to tell without an antibody test. I can only assume that something like this has been done for them to put out these figures.

 

Bill 😊

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2 hours ago, Confused52 said:

No Obs, Asp was closer. One in three infected people have no symptoms. Asymptomatic sufferers are said to carry higher viral loads and hence be more infectious  and for longer than the rest of people. The corollary is that for every two reported cases there is another asymptomatic person who doesn't know to isolate.  It is not clear whether being an asymptomatic carrier in that way is having no ill-effects.

So asymptomatic people carry "high viral loads", which they then spread throughout the community,  thus infecting everyone else.   😷

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

I thought the definition of asymptomatic was anyone who could be infected but not display any symptoms so surely almost all children could be classed that way. Maybe I should of asked if children are classed and included as people in this statement because if they are then there would be very few asymptomatic adults. Did that make sense?

I’ve never heard of anyone who’s had the virus without really knowing about it but that’s the problem I suppose; it’s impossible to tell without an antibody test. I can only assume that something like this has been done for them to put out these figures.

 

Bill 😊

Oh tricky. The test in this case would be an antigen test using a swab and a RT-PCR test because that is what ONS use. These tests are of random people (Pillar 4 testing) and could be symptomatic or asymptomatic

The positivity by age for the tests done on the 16/01/2021 were

Age 2 to School Year 6                   2.01%

School Year 7 to School Year 11     1.98%

School Year 12 to Age 24               2.86%

Age 25 to Age 34                           2.42%

Age 35 to Age 49                           2.03%

Age 50 to Age 69                           1.60%

Age 70+                                          0.83%

 

On the same date the rolling rates of symptomatic cases so this is the normal testing (Pillars 1 and 2) per 100,000 for England Age groups were:

0_4 191.8
5_9 165.8
10_14 227.4
15_19 426.2
20_24 685
25_29 703.2
30_34 691.1
35_39 637.9
40_44 637.4
45_49 578.7
50_54 590.9
55_59 572.6
60_64 481
65_69 305.8
70_74 250.3
75_79 286.5
80_84 366.1
85_89 573.4

 

I think this shows that when you test at random the percentage positive in the young is higher than those who are symptomatic. Hence children are more likely to be asymptomatic than everyone else.

Use the numbers to come to your own conclusions.

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My conclusion from this is the answer to Asp’s original question of does this mean 30% of the population have no ill effects? In terms of overall population yes it does. But given we already know that children including teenagers often show no effects and just take the adult population then no it doesn’t.

It is a tricky one and I’m not sure if my brain has woken up enough so I’m not even going to attempt the maths but if this 30% includes a large sub group that's almost 100%, then my gut feeling would be that the figure for the adult population might be nearer to the 10% mark.

 

Bill 😊

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