More self inflicted woes -

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, asperity said:

How can you say it's been effective when, if it had been effective, we wouldn't be continuing to have more of them. The only thing that seems to have been achieved (apart from making a large portion of the population extremely sceptical) is keeping the sainted NHS from being no busier than normal.

Regrettably Asp what you say has been achieved was the only expectation that Government actually had. They never said that lockdowns would get rid of the virus, even the vaccine cannot get rid of the virus because it is now endemic in the whole global population. When the vaccine is completely rolled out the expectation I have is that they will monitor mutations and there will be regular updates to the vaccines and new immunisation programmes over the next few years. The mRNA vaccine should be easier to modify than the the others so I would expect those to dominate over time. This view is based on the fact that the virus is everywhere on the planet, still highly contagious and this will be the same kind of problem as eliminating smallpox. The level goes down but elimination takes decades.

The important issue not being addressed enough, in my view, is pharmaceutical interventions that work and over the counter tests as well as prophylactic treatments that can be self-administered as soon as people get infected. Waiting till people get to hospital and their viral load is high is the real problem and tragedy which causes the both the overload on the health service and pointless Covid deaths. This is because all of the health services are obsessed to Hospitals and lab-based testing. In the case of the NHS the obsession with lab-based testing was an attempt to keep the private sector out of testing. It was doomed to fail but caused us to lose testing capability, because it ran out, at the critical point in the epidemic when track and trace could really be effective. The lefty obsession with privatisation got in the way of doing the right thing and if there is a public enquiry PHE and the NHS will not fare well. The obsession with blaming the Government is a diversionary tactic because the they have pretty much solidly followed scientific advice where there was consensus among the various factions.

[Confused52]

18 minutes ago, Bill said:

Confused.

Read it but not that much wiser as it’s a bit too deep for my aging mind. I prefer it when someone knowledgeable digests it then puts it in simpler terms without any big words and ideally with pictures. Probably explains why when my peers were reading their papers, I was reading the Beno. 😊

On your reply to observer, we all know that it’s impossible to 100% isolate as we need to keep the wheels turning. If you think that a stricter form of isolation won’t work, then surly we’re all wasting our time with the current softer tiered measures.

I doubt Obs was expecting to achieve an instant and perfect solution and yes there are downsides to his suggestion but as the old saying goes, “If you want to make a cake then you have to break a few eggs” 😊

 

Bill 😊

Three smiley faces in one post is that a record?

Sorry Bill. What it says is that they exposed a patient with a compromised immune system (perhaps one taking immunosuppression drugs for transplant reasons) to recovering blood plasma which contains antibodies. The first two times they also gave an antiviral drug to stop the replication of the virus and they saw no mutation as the virus overcame the poor immune system. When the gave him more antibodies without the anti-viral they did see mutations which included the one in the spike protein that everyone is worrying about at the moment. This is the reason that they are touting the idea that it came from such an incident, because they know it has happened. This is normal behaviour for viruses which are based on RNA and which mutates at random when cells replicate it because RNA does not have error correction mechanisms built into the structure unlike like DNA which defines living things.

What they found is important because it shows that recovered plasma should only be used at the same time as something like remdesvir on patients with weak immune systems for whom the vaccine will not work.

Does that help?

[asperity]

45 minutes ago, Confused52 said:

 

The important issue not being addressed enough, in my view, is pharmaceutical interventions that work and over the counter tests as well as prophylactic treatments that can be self-administered as soon as people get infected. Waiting till people get to hospital and their viral load is high is the real problem and tragedy which causes the both the overload on the health service and pointless Covid deaths. This is because all of the health services are obsessed to Hospitals and lab-based testing. In the case of the NHS the obsession with lab-based testing was an attempt to keep the private sector out of testing. It was doomed to fail but caused us to lose testing capability, because it ran out, at the critical point in the epidemic when track and trace could really be effective. The lefty obsession with privatisation got in the way of doing the right thing and if there is a public enquiry PHE and the NHS will not fare well. The obsession with blaming the Government is a diversionary tactic because the they have pretty much solidly followed scientific advice where there was consensus among the various factions.

I can go along with what you say here. The pity is that the government, in following the scientific advice, were either being ignorant of the effects of their actions or untruthful. Either way we were misled by the pronouncements about "flattening the curve" and "a short lockdown will solve the problem". You can fool all of the people some of the time etc.

[Observer II]

1 hour ago, Confused52 said:

Obs, even as essential workers they have families, the other members of which see other people. The idea that you can effect strict isolation is a crock. The proof is that outbreaks occur in prisons where isolation is about as complete as you are going to get. Complete isolation as a solution is not going to work and solutions based on it are impractical nonsense.

That's why they need testing each time they enter their work environment and should also be prioritised for the vaccine imo.   As for Prisons, they have visitors and a crowded into a relatively small space, so if the virus gets in, it spreads.   Lest we forget - the virus needs a host to replicate, it depends on personal contacts.    😷

[Bill]

Thanks for the clarification, I’ll pass that on to Roger the Dodger and Gnasher. 😊

So what you’re saying is that the new mutation was observed in tests on a recovering patient here in the UK rather than it being just a natural random mutation. Well, that looks a bit like a smoking gun to me and if other some countries were doing the same, there’s every possibility that the same happened there rather than it jumping from the UK. It doesn’t explain how it became so widespread here, but look on the bright side, we’re now world leaders in the production of this new strain. 😊

 

Bill 😊

Three smileys again. It’s becoming a habit.

[Evil Sid]

4 hours ago, Bill said:

I don’t see the travel ban as being that odd Sid, because it’s the UK that’s infected, not the other way around. To stop people coming in just because they’ve stopped us is just playing tit for tat and doesn’t solve anything.

What i was getting at, tongue in cheek, is that once they are in this country then by their countries ruling they can't travel back to their own countries so they will be stuck here until something changes.

The ruling is they cannot travel from the uk.

[Evil Sid]

Oh well here's to a happy Christmas and a merry new year. or should that be the other way round...🤔

[Confused52]

11 minutes ago, Evil Sid said:

Oh well here's to a happy Christmas and a merry new year. or should that be the other way round...🤔

The way round that you wrote seems to be a fine statement of intent to me...

[Bill]

Well everything’s so cocked up at the moment Sid I don’t suppose it matters. Maybe this year we should wish one another Merry Christmess!

On the good news front, I’ve just got back from the dentist with my new front teeth finally fixed so I can sing my Christmess carols now instead of whistling, and turkeys back on the menu instead of turkey soup. Not so good with the family holiday though that we had planned for last April. That got rescheduled for February 2021, then October 2021 and now it’s looking like February 2022 if we’re lucky. What a flipping mess. Two of the grandkids will be classed as full price adults by then and not very interested in seeing Micky Mouse. ☹

 

Bill 😊

[Davy51]

2 hours ago, Evil Sid said:

What i was getting at, tongue in cheek, is that once they are in this country then by their countries ruling they can't travel back to their own countries so they will be stuck here until something changes.

The ruling is they cannot travel from the uk.

I think yesterdays news said that French nationals could travel back to France .

[Bill]

Should we all have a whip round to pay for their tickets? 😈😊

 

Bill 😊

 

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

Should we all have a whip round to pay for their tickets? 😈😊

 

Bill 😊

 

Well with no ferry sailings or flights and the tunnel shut maybe we should sell tickets to watch their swim back!

[asperity]

Cornwall has been placed into Tier 4 restrictions after hundreds of pirates returned home to Penzance for Christmas.

The arrrrr rate has gone through the roof 🤣🤣🤣

[Confused52]

Bill,Obs

I recall that i said somewhere that the Australian mutation was an export from the UK. I am not sure that was true any more. I have seen multiple names for the mutation and I had not appreciated a finer point properly. 

The particular strain we are seeing grow here is given the name B.1.1.7 and it contains over a dozen individual mutations each of which is identified by a code (which I don't understand) but appears to describe the mutation and the position in the virus. The individual  mutation in the spike protein that everyone is worried about is called N501Y. My understanding of the Australian position was clearly incorrect.

According to:

Andrew Rambaut (Professor of Molecular Evolution | University of Edinburgh | FRSE)

 

@arambaut

· 18 Dec

Replying to @nbierne @babarlelephant and 6 others

There are currently 3 501Y clusters/outbreaks/lineages - one in South Africa, two in the UK (one in Wales, and the B.1.1.7 lineage mainly in England). There’ve been a two? other clusters over summer (one in USA, one in Australia). All of these have independent origins.

 

 

[Bill]

No need to apologise, you did say it was possible that this could have resulted from identical tests being carried out in other countries so while we can’t claim we invented this, we’re still the leading exporter of it.

I saw a couple of interesting things on telly yesterday that supported my belief that a lot more virus is spread on the breath than previously thought. We all saw the animations and videos of how coughs and sneezes could spread the virus, and this unintentionally implied that there was no significant spread by just the breath. This of course explains why many feel it’s ok to remove masks if only walking around the town.

A more recent test done using the same high-speed techniques, showed droplets were clearly visible on the breath, doubling while talking and getting significantly worse while speaking loudly. With the masks on though, hardly any droplets cold be seen even with the test subject singing loudly. This is the video they should have used to convince people to wear a mask.

The second telly thing was how the Philippines managed to achieve some of the lowest rates in the world, despite only appearing to do virtually the same as we do here. The head of their health authority said that the most significant difference between the two countries is that they have a strict mask policy, with heavy fines for anyone not wearing a mask anywhere outside their home. You leave home and the mask stays on until your back, and there are no exceptions.

These two TV snippets highlights both problem and proven solution and neither will be considered because we do things the way we’ve always done, even when we can see it being done better in other places.

 

Bill 😊

[Bill]

I normally do my weekly shop early on a Wednesday to avoid any crowding but today was mid Christmas week with people still off work, and bad ice on the car meant I ended up going mid-afternoon. What a difference, the place was as busy as you’d expect a day or so before Christmas.

In all the time I’ve shopped at Sainsbury’s, I’ve only ever seen the odd person not wearing a mask but to be honest, they looked the type that could well have had a medical condition. Today though, I counted six none mask wearers, all male, all aged about 20/30 and all looking like the sort of person the police would be looking for. They stood out like sore thumbs and obviously knew that people were giving them funny looks, but they seemed to be doing this deliberately and enjoying the experience.

Maybe I’ve just been lucky up to now because I’ve heard others on about this sort of thing in supermarkets, but this was a new one for me.

People as stupid as this shouldn’t be on this planet let alone be in Sainsbury’s.😡

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

Calm down Bill, you're worrying yourself sick over the behaviour of people which cannot be controlled. It isn't illegal to not wear a mask or, fortunately for a great number of people, to wear a mask not covering your nose.

I was going to make a comment on the general lack of intelligence of Sainsbury's shoppers but some people might take offense 😉😂

[Bill]

I don’t know where you got that one from Asp, it’s a well-known and proven fact that Sainsbury’s shoppers are far and away the most intelligent shoppers in the country. Even I shop there, what other proof could you possibly want?

I wish I’d have snapped a picture of these characters because if ever anyone needed a stereotype of the kind of people who do this, then this lot would be perfect. To be fair though, I managed to walk around there a few weeks back without a mask. It was probably only a couple of minutes before I realised but I suppose people just looked at me dressed like Wurzel Gummidge and though poor old bloke, what a shame. 😊

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

They've now found that Neanderthal genes provide a built in resistance to the virus - which explains a lot about the antics of the covidiots.    😷

[Confused52]

15 hours ago, asperity said:

Calm down Bill, you're worrying yourself sick over the behaviour of people which cannot be controlled. It isn't illegal to not wear a mask or, fortunately for a great number of people, to wear a mask not covering your nose.

I was going to make a comment on the general lack of intelligence of Sainsbury's shoppers but some people might take offense 😉😂

Asp it depends where you are and shops are a relevant place for the purposes of Regulation 3 of The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings in a Relevant Place) (England) Regulations 2020, so not wearing one just because you don't feel like it, is indeed illegal. From the same legislation: “face covering” means a covering of any type which covers a person's nose and mouth; so that means that wearing a mask that does not cover the nose is not wearing a face covering and so is also illegal in a relevant place such as a shop. 

[asperity]

A person can refuse to wear a mask if they have a reasonable excuse not to. By the same token the owner of the shop/venue/etc can ask someone not wearing a mask to leave.

The reasonable excuse bit is where it all falls down because how can anybody prove that wearing a mask doesn't cause someone else "distress"? It really makes me suspect that the people who made up his regulation didn't take mask wearing to be so important and that it's practically voluntary!! If they wanted to mandate mask wearing outside of your own home they could have done so and made non-compliance an arrestable offense, but they didn't. What they have done is make these fairly loose rules and rely upon the general population to self police. Hence all the moaning about "other people" not following the rules and "something should be done about it" rather than looking after your own welfare by not mingling with people who aren't following the rules. I wouldn't go into a shop packed with people, masked or unmasked, if I didn't feel safe about it. And I certainly wouldn't join a queue for MacD's 🤣.

[Confused52]

15 minutes ago, asperity said:

A person can refuse to wear a mask if they have a reasonable excuse not to. By the same token the owner of the shop/venue/etc can ask someone not wearing a mask to leave.

The reasonable excuse bit is where it all falls down because how can anybody prove that wearing a mask doesn't cause someone else "distress"? It really makes me suspect that the people who made up his regulation didn't take mask wearing to be so important and that it's practically voluntary!! If they wanted to mandate mask wearing outside of your own home they could have done so and made non-compliance an arrestable offense, but they didn't. What they have done is make these fairly loose rules and rely upon the general population to self police. Hence all the moaning about "other people" not following the rules and "something should be done about it" rather than looking after your own welfare by not mingling with people who aren't following the rules. I wouldn't go into a shop packed with people, masked or unmasked, if I didn't feel safe about it. And I certainly wouldn't join a queue for MacD's 🤣.

I do take your point but the test is severe distress so a person having the screaming habdabs might be a reasonable excuse but not liking it isn't. I fear people just don't want to take it seriously enough and that includes shop workers who think they are still exempt but they are not. I find it odd that it has taken until now for a story that is as direct as this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55479018 to appear on the BBC. Perhaps the staff have at last been affected by what is now happening in London.

Regulation 6(5) actually changes PACE and make the offence under the Regulations of not wearing a face covering, and actually any other offence which is a threat to public health, an arrestable one by changing the reasons for being able to arrest without a warrant to include 

(a)to maintain public health;

(b)to maintain public order.

So if anyone is to blame it is the police, who seem to not want to enforce the law in a robust way. 

[Davy51]

The easiest way to persuade a person to wear a mask is to stress that it could save his/her life. To put the emphasis on preventing spreading the virus to others doesn't fit with most peoples' "I'm alright Jack" attitude.

[Latchford Locks]

13 minutes ago, Davy51 said:

The easiest way to persuade a person to wear a mask is to stress that it could save his/her life. To put the emphasis on preventing spreading the virus to others doesn't fit with most peoples' "I'm alright Jack" attitude.

Sad but true

 

 

[Observer II]

Seems covid is now affecting the young, with hospital wards in London filling up with kids - so I guess we can forget about a return to school.    😷