More self inflicted woes -

[Bill]

I’ll go along with what Obs said. Many of these shop front type businesses we seem so concerned about could in theory just shut up shop and reopen when it’s all blown over. I know it not quite that simple but it’s doable. My local pub decided to do just this and at least the landlord now doesn’t have to worry now about constantly opening then closing a few days later and loosing stock.

 

Bill

[asperity]

Unbelievably callous Bill. Millions of people are not going to get their lives back to normal when "its all blown over" as you so flippantly put it.

[Confused52]

3 hours ago, asperity said:

Lockdowns only have the effect of kicking the can down the road, which is why I say they have no beneficial effects. The malignant effects of more deaths by untreated diseases, undiagnosed diseases and suicides have yet to come to the fore.

 

Sorry but that argument is false. What we have had since the March event have not been lockdowns. They have required some things to be prevented but you haven't been waiting at home for the army to deliver food. Now that is the kind of lockdown Obs proposes. It is that kind of lockdown that the WHO opposes. There is a vocabulary problem here. What we have had is Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the jargon. Analysis of the data on cases shows that they do work in getting case rates down. When case rates are high and hospitalisations are high hospitals can't treat anything but Covid cases. What causes those non-Covid death rates to go p because of lack of treatment is  having a finite capacity in the health service and the Covid case rate being too high. Far from just kicking the can down the road it is meant to prevent the non-Covid related deaths from happening.

This attitude that there is too much emphasis on Covid is the wrong way round we need to get the case rate down to protect non-Covid patients. The analysis that I have use is the one given by Whitty to the Science and Technology Select Committee in utterly rubbishing the Great Barrington Declaration. The other part of the explanation is that the antibody detection percentage in the population was falling during the summer. It is rising again now only because there are a large number of new infections. The dose of coronavirus to get longevity of protect appears to be higher than the dose most people get. So at a guess it is doesn't have a go at killing you you haven't got antibody protection for long when it goes. The Great Barrington Declaration assumes that letting people get infected naturally will give them protection with antibodies. Whitty pointed out that this did not appear to be true, hence the approach set out in the GBD is scientifically illiterate and hence dangerous. Vaccination generates the levels of antibodies that would have killed people it it were natural infection so it alone offers the possibility of herd immunity, even if we don.t know for how long. The current strategy is the only one that might work and it isn't just kicking the can down the road.

[Bill]

Nothing flippant Asp I’m just suggesting a viable solution rather than waiting for the inevitable which would probably work out a lot worse for the business owner. If its as bad as many make out, they're probably running close to insolvency, so it would be better to liquidate rather than face bankruptcy. That way, they be in a far better position to restart their business when the time is right. People will lose jobs either way but that’s life in a pandemic.

I know what I'm talking about here because it once happened to me.

 

Bill :)

[asperity]

So if what we have had since March haven't been proper or effective lockdowns so all the businesses and jobs that have gone to the wall have been all in vain. That sounds even worse to me than just carrying on as normal with enforced social distancing, restrictions on numbers in shops, pubs restaurants etc. What we're seeing now is a hotchpotch of unnecessary over-regulation and petty rules that invite people to break.

[Observer II]

What we're seeing now is a catalogue of indecision and incompetance by Gov, terrified of upsetting the voters.  The irony is, that most voters are prepared for and expect draconian action to put an end to this pandemic and thus get back to "normal".   😷

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, asperity said:

So if what we have had since March haven't been proper or effective lockdowns so all the businesses and jobs that have gone to the wall have been all in vain. That sounds even worse to me than just carrying on as normal with enforced social distancing, restrictions on numbers in shops, pubs restaurants etc. "

Your argument  is bogus. What we have has since the March event was indeed " carrying on as normal with enforced social distancing, restrictions on numbers in shops, pubs restaurants etc." . I did not say it wasn't effective, in my view it has been effective.

The statement "That sounds even worse to me than just carrying on as normal with enforced social distancing, restrictions on numbers in shops, pubs restaurants etc" is just a political statement of opinion without any evidence.

[Confused52]

25 minutes ago, Observer II said:

What we're seeing now is a catalogue of indecision and incompetance by Gov, terrified of upsetting the voters.  The irony is, that most voters are prepared for and expect draconian action to put an end to this pandemic and thus get back to "normal".   😷

What possible draconian action do you propose such that the pandemic is "put to an end" and doesn't just come back again? Do explain because I can't see any solution other than becoming like North Korea but even more closed of from the rest of the world!

[Bill]

A North Korean style lockdown for a few weeks might be preferable to this mess continuing for another 12 months. In any case, for the older generation it wouldn’t be much different. Trying to hold it at a level that just about stops the NHS from failing doesn’t seem to be working for anyone. Tighten restrictions just slightly and the young moan, relax them and the old folk moan, its a no win situation, so have done with it and do a North Korean lockdown for just a set time. It might not completely stop the virus but at least we'll all know when it's going to end which is something we don't have now.  

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

30 minutes ago, Confused52 said:

What possible draconian action do you propose such that the pandemic is "put to an end" and doesn't just come back again? Do explain because I can't see any solution other than becoming like North Korea but even more closed of from the rest of the world!

Well, they've already reached the conclusion for the old and at risk group - total housebound isolation.  But as I said many pages ago,  the Western Democracies are incapable of the degree of social dicipline necessary to do what it takes;  and maybe that's what the Chinese had in mind when they released this contagion to the world ?   😷

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

Well, they've already reached the conclusion for the old and at risk group - total housebound isolation.  But as I said many pages ago,  the Western Democracies are incapable of the degree of social dicipline necessary to do what it takes;  and maybe that's what the Chinese had in mind when they released this contagion to the world ?   😷

So what are those old and at risk group who need carers going to do without them? Delivering appropriate food is the easy bit. Then there are the care homes, what do they do for staff - no cooks, carers, nurses, cleaners - it doesn't work does it? So does your plan mean that if you can't look after yourself you are doomed then?

 

[Observer II]

Essential workers stay on the job - that's why they're called essential, and keep society ticking over as they've done for nearly a year.  btw -  I believe Wuhan is now back to "normal".😷

[Evil Sid]

All getting rather irrelevant as the whole world now seems to have banned travel from the UK, but not to the UK for some odd reason.

So globally we are in a "lockdown" but locally....🤔

[Davy51]

Any further damage to the economy could be unsustainable & would be terminal for many more businesses with resulting unemployment & desperate poverty possibly fuelling riots & violence on the streets as parents struggle to feed their kids & make ends meet. Add to that the irresponsible news reports highlighting possible shortages of some products & the panic buying lemmings will do the rest. Oh & don't forget ,the government coffers can not be bottomless, there will come a day when the taps need to be turned off.

[Bill]

I don’t see the travel ban as being that odd Sid, because it’s the UK that’s infected, not the other way around. To stop people coming in just because they’ve stopped us is just playing tit for tat and doesn’t solve anything. When they all start admitting they’ve got the same, I don’t suppose it’ll matter.

I’m surprised Spain hasn’t closed the door yet, I’d have thought they’d have been one of the first given the level of infections they’ve had in the past. One of the lads from work flew out to Spain Sunday but he’s probably just one of thousands of others who would argue they've not broken any rules.

 

Bill 😊

[Bill]

Don’t be too downbeat Davy, I doubt it’ll ever get quite that bad because most recognise that we’re all in the same boat. If this was something only affecting just the UK, then the government would be under fire from all sides, but no government in any country has exactly managed to come up smelling of roses.

I suppose you could argue that countries with less civil liberties than us fair better when it comes to eradicating the virus and keeping the wheels of industry turning but Hey Ho, it’ll all be just a memory before too long.

(Hopefully)

 

Bill 😊

[asperity]

43 minutes ago, Bill said:

I don’t see the travel ban as being that odd Sid, because it’s the UK that’s infected, not the other way around. To stop people coming in just because they’ve stopped us is just playing tit for tat and doesn’t solve anything. When they all start admitting they’ve got the same, I don’t suppose it’ll matter.

I’m surprised Spain hasn’t closed the door yet, I’d have thought they’d have been one of the first given the level of infections they’ve had in the past. One of the lads from work flew out to Spain Sunday but he’s probably just one of thousands of others who would argue they've not broken any rules.

 

Bill 😊

Except it isn't just the UK that has the so called "new strain" Bill, it has been found in other European countries and even Australia, it was just identified in the UK first. Nobody knows where it originated, or how dangerous/benign it is except, apparently, the MSM who would have us believe that we're all doomed.

[Davy51]

I can't & don't fault the government handling of the pandemic ,but i do find it sad that ,from the comfort of the opposition benches, Starmer is happy to score cheap political points when he has the luxury of not having to deal with the crisis.

[asperity]

13 hours ago, Confused52 said:

Your argument  is bogus. What we have has since the March event was indeed " carrying on as normal with enforced social distancing, restrictions on numbers in shops, pubs restaurants etc." . I did not say it wasn't effective, in my view it has been effective.

The statement "That sounds even worse to me than just carrying on as normal with enforced social distancing, restrictions on numbers in shops, pubs restaurants etc" is just a political statement of opinion without any evidence.

How can you say it's been effective when, if it had been effective, we wouldn't be continuing to have more of them. The only thing that seems to have been achieved (apart from making a large portion of the population extremely sceptical) is keeping the sainted NHS from being no busier than normal.

[Bill]

I agree Asp, the word effective probably isn’t the best choice because it implies that it makes things better when in reality it’s only helped a bit. There’s no doubt that increased restrictions helped to slow down virus spread but playing with words this way doesn’t really help anyone.

So words aside, what would be your suggestion for solving this conundrum?  

 

Bill

[Bill]

Quote

Except it isn't just the UK that has the so called "new strain"

From what I understand, there have already been multiple variants of the virus detected in many counties around the world but apparently this is perfectly normal, and most of these variants don’t create any increase risk. In our case however, our scientist and medical experts have classed this as a significant and dangerous change,

Whether people believe this or not depends on their point of view, but I can’t think of any reason why any government would want to announce something like this to the world unless it was true.

 

Bill

[Confused52]

11 hours ago, Observer II said:

Essential workers stay on the job - that's why they're called essential, and keep society ticking over as they've done for nearly a year.  btw -  I believe Wuhan is now back to "normal".😷

Obs, even as essential workers they have families, the other members of which see other people. The idea that you can effect strict isolation is a crock. The proof is that outbreaks occur in prisons where isolation is about as complete as you are going to get. Complete isolation as a solution is not going to work and solutions based on it are impractical nonsense.

[Confused52]

17 minutes ago, Bill said:

From what I understand, there have already been multiple variants of the virus detected in many counties around the world but apparently this is perfectly normal, and most of these variants don’t create any increase risk. In our case however, our scientist and medical experts have classed this as a significant and dangerous change,

Whether people believe this or not depends on their point of view, but I can’t think of any reason why any government would want to announce something like this to the world unless it was true.

 

Bill

You may be interested to read this from the group that do the sequencing in the UK. Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection and viral evolution tracked in an immunocompromised patient – COG-UK Consortium (cogconsortium.uk)

 

[asperity]

Bill, you want to know my solution? Way above my pay grade I'm afraid, but whatever I suggest could well be better than the solutions our "experts" have come up with so far.

[Bill]

Confused.

Read it but not much wiser as it’s a bit too deep for my aging mind. I prefer it when someone clever digests it then puts it in simpler terms without any big words and ideally with pictures. Probably explains why when my peers were reading their papers, I was reading the Beano. 😊

On your reply to observer, we all know that it’s impossible to 100% isolate as we need to keep the wheels turning. If you think that a stricter form of isolation won’t work, then surly we’re all wasting our time with the current softer tiered measures.

I doubt Obs was expecting to achieve an instant and perfect solution and yes there are downsides to his suggestion but as the old saying goes, “If you want to make a cake then you have to break a few eggs” 😊

 

Bill 😊

Three smiley faces in one post is that a record?