More self inflicted woes -

[Observer II]

I seem to recall back in Autumn,  the Universities gagging to get their students back to work, packing them into their college digs to share the virus.   It's now clear that their motivation was to ensure they received their students fees.   Then lecturers decided it was unsafe for face to face learning, so resorted to virtual sessions, which they could have carried out if the students had stayed at home.  Now we have a huge exercise in screening the students in order to allow their exodus home for Xmas.   So yet another attempt at "normality" that's proved a rod for our own backs.      😷

[asperity]

Learning is only a small part of the University experience.

[Observer II]

That we pay for  😠

[Observer II]

Despite all the warnings, Covid is now rife in our schools system, with kids being sent home to self isolate - which begs a question about self isolation.  If an infected person returns to a family home to self isolate, it doesn't seem to mean that the whole family self isolates, does it ?   Thus other members of a family contract the infection then go out into the wide world to continue the spread.   Now with the "R" rate increasing in the S/East;   we're entering a binge spreading Xmas period, which will guarantee a third (or is it fourth) wave of the pandemic.        😷

[Bill]

I’m not sure it works that way Obs. My son has four kids and last week one was sent home because someone in his class had tested positive. The whole family were told to get tested the following day. The results came back clear, so there’s no reason for any of the others to remain off school.

 

Bill

[Observer II]

I hope that's true Bill, if so, I'll stand corrected.  But contamination within family households is a primary cause of high "R" rates,  especially in deprived and BAME groups, with small houses and large families. In any group situation, be it a family, care home, schools etc -   it would make sense to lock down the whole group until proven to be clear.  The Xmas relaxation will run directly counter to that, so we can expect a surge in cases in the N/Year.         😷

[Bill]

Well hopefully the Greens won't be helping the virus this Christmas. My daughters sensible enough to understand the risk so she's suggested meeting the kids in the local park to give them them their presents. My son's maybe not quite as thoughtful so it'll be drop the presents, a quick Merry Christmas and away. 

 

Bill

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

I hope that's true Bill, if so, I'll stand corrected.  But contamination within family households is a primary cause of high "R" rates,  especially in deprived and BAME groups, with small houses and large families. In any group situation, be it a family, care home, schools etc -   it would make sense to lock down the whole group until proven to be clear.  The Xmas relaxation will run directly counter to that, so we can expect a surge in cases in the N/Year.         😷

The next increase in cases in Warrington started four days ago. The 7 day rolling cases per 100,000 is on the way up and started about three days before the rest of the North West. When the demographic data for testing dates is available I expect to be able to see approximately when the increase started and hold old the dimwits were. But the date already suggests it was when the pubs reopened. However I will await firm data. In consequence R is now above 1 in Warrington again so the caution suggested by Bill is justified. My lot will not be coming at all other than the one who is in our bubble and works from home with no social contacts other than us. 

[asperity]

I'd be interested to know if pubs play any part in infection rates. From what I've read you have more chance of catching Covid in hospital than in a pub!

[Observer II]

I would imagine any enclosed environment which packs folk into close proximity is a risk.     😷

[Bill]

Quote

I'd be interested to know if pubs play any part in infection rates. From what I've read you have more chance of catching Covid in hospital than in a pub!

I'd go along with that especially having just see a picture on Facebook showing one of my relatives (a NHS nurse) with five of her workmates all drinking together on a night out in Warrington. The picture was from two days ago btw.

 

Bill

[asperity]

I can't speak for all pubs, but the ones I've been in had standards of hygeine (hand cleaner available, staff cleaning tables and chairs when vacated, table service, social distancing measures, restricted numbers allowed in etc) which would put the NHS to shame never mind your local supermarket.

[Davy51]

It will be interesting to see how the injection programme pans out. I don't have a lot of faith in GPs being able to deliver a viable service when ,for the last nine months, surgeries have been so inaccessible.

[Observer II]

More bad news it seems - they've discovered a new variant of the Covid virus -  just hope the Vax will work.      😷

[Davy51]

5 hours ago, asperity said:

I'd be interested to know if pubs play any part in infection rates. From what I've read you have more chance of catching Covid in hospital than in a pub!

My ex wife caught it in hospital but managed to pull through despite her under lying health problems.

[asperity]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

More bad news it seems - they've discovered a new variant of the Covid virus -  just hope the Vax will work.      😷

I used to have one of those Vax machines.

[asperity]

18 hours ago, Observer II said:

More bad news it seems - they've discovered a new variant of the Covid virus -  just hope the Vax will work.      😷

A global study by, I think, Oxford Uni has found that there are over 14000 mutations of the virus already. This of course was expected and the fact that Hancock decided to announce this as "something new" only goes to re-inforce the notion that he wants to keep us plebs permanently terrified. Meanwhile the government is being kept permanently terrified by the idea that the MSM will criticise them for not locking the country down and closing all the schools again "to save the NHS".

[asperity]

“Can we say there’s a new variant?”

“Nice, but won’t people then say the vaccine won’t work?”

“We’ll say it still works.”

“They won’t buy it.”

“Trust me. These people wear masks, alone in their cars.”

[Bill]

Were did you hear that Asp? I’m no medical expert and don’t understand much about viruses but I thought it was a case, that theoretically, any virus could mutate that many times and not that it already has. Whether this is a significant variation that could cause problems, only the experts would know and I suppose we’ll just have to wait to find out.

Whether people believe this to be a genuine finding or just a government scare tactic I suppose depends on where you look for the news.

 

Bill

[Observer II]

The reason behind Hancock's statement, is an alarming rise in cases in London, which they're putting down to a more contagious strain, not to the covidiots.    A question to answer is, whilst the vaccine is designed to protect the individual,  there is no reassurance to how long that protection lasts.  Also, having had the vaccine, doesn't stop you spreading the virus on clothing etc;  so still not back to hugs and kisses I'm afraid.      😷

[Confused52]

38 minutes ago, Observer II said:

The reason behind Hancock's statement, is an alarming rise in cases in London, which they're putting down to a more contagious strain, not to the covidiots.    

The scientist's take on it is a big fat " don't know" Update on new SARS-CoV-2 variant and how COG-UK tracks emerging mutations – COG-UK Consortium (cogconsortium.uk)

The Cogs consortium actually use mutations to track the virus to see how it is spreading. It is them that find when it is spreading from hospital staff to patients. The is a sub-link to PHE which gives more details (that is the laboratory people in PHE not the management). Note that the main finds are in Kent

PHE investigating a novel strain of COVID-19 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

There are many variations in the virus already but these article make it clear that they are concerned about this one because the mutation is in the part of the receptor that binds with the ACE2 protein in human noses, throats and lungs. The vaccine is supposed to stimulate a response against multiple parts of the spike receptor so a change of one molecule at position 501 may not change the shape significantly enough to change anything about infectivity or protection. They will tell us when Porton Down PHE labs have decided. However they had to report it to the WHO and not making it public would have seen the government accused of hiding the truth when it leaked out via WHO.

The timing being when there are a lot of cases is tricky but there being a lot of cases is how they detected the change because they only take a sample of positive tests for full sequencing to test where they came from. 

I don't believe in the conspiracy theories, they are not putting it down to a new strain. They are just making a new strain public, which would have happened anyway.

[asperity]

The scientists (don't ask me which lot) pointed out way back in March that viruses mutate, and there is no reason to believe that this one wouldn't do the same. The question is, why did Hancock announce this as if it was something that was unthinkable 24 hours previously? When politicians act like this is it any wonder conspiracy theories flourish?

[Observer II]

Think we recognised on this board last year, that viruses mutate, sometimes becoming less of a threat, sometimes becoming a bigger threat - just like the flu virus, which they have to identify the probable strain each flu season for the jab.   So it's not the strain we need to worry about;   it's the relaxation of precautions over Xmas and the actions of Covidiots, that will set us up for a third wave in the New Year;  just like has happened in the US following Thanksgiving.   😷

[Bill]

Virus mutation numbers have been known about for years and not just since March. In any case, to suggest this news is somehow only being released now to justify the government actions is pushing the limits of credibility. It’s rather like concrete, at some point it will always crack but when it does there’s no point in trying asking why now.

I’m guessing there’s probably already been multiple mutations but if this is a significant one, they have to announce if or be accused of hiding the facts.

 

Bill

[Confused52]

Bill,

There have been a lot of mutations. If you can take the detail look at this.... Nextstrain / ncov / global

The panel marked Phylogeny is the family tree of mutations all the way back to Wuhan.

This is not something to worry about, rather its tells us that the scientists are keeping their eye on this like hawks and there is a global perspective on it. The covidiots want us to believe that there is not evidence for this and that but it it just isn't the truth.

What we need to remember is that designing the Moderna vaccine took less than two weeks. The Oxford vaccine was designed in two days. Both of the used the RNA sequence of the Wuhan virus as their starting point. The time needed to get this far has mostly been to test the delivery systems within humans. If we had to change the payload by a few molecules that wouldn't take long and particularly in the mRNA vaccines I do not see why there would need to be such a long testing period as this time. Pretty much the same as the annual changed to predominant flu strains. The half/full dose issue for the Oxford Adenovirus payload is what makes me less certain about that one but there will be more data along soon and I will make my mind up later. The constant sequencing and sharing of the RNA sequences will let us identify vaccines for any new strain that does have a different response to the vaccine induced antibodies and we have the means to test it and find out.