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Lock Down II ?


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Perhaps they need to tell doctors they are supposed to be open to the public.

They have to have somebody to blame and the government is an easy target. Joe public are the one's who buy their services so they will not blame them and of course they are not to blame themselve

What I said about viruses is true, over the centuries they all mutate (that is evolve) to be less deadly to their host or they find a different host. No sentience is required for evolution to work it

I think they would have done that if they thought it was necessary but just moving them to somewhere else dosn't really change things, especially if there's not enough staff. I think they were only put there as part of a disaster plan and the trick was to keep things just below the level where they were needed. 

 

Bill :)

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As with any sound strategy, a fall back position is required to cover for a worst case scenario; whether they had enough staff to man these is open to question.   However, I would have thought that they could have been utilised as dedicated covid hospitals, thus keeping other hospitals covid free and thus building confidence in folk with other medical problems to actually attend for treatments. 😷

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According to statistics, the NHS has never been near to being "overwhelmed" and in fact bed occupancy rates, even in ICU, has in many cases been below average.

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ah but the worst of the winter weather is not yet upon us.
Slips and falls in the snow and icy conditions really boost the occupancy rate of hospitals, especially among those who are not to steady on their feet at best of times.

The fact that bed occupancy has been below average makes me wonder how many operations and other procedures that would normally lead to a few days stay have been cancelled or put back, just in case there was a sudden rise in need due to the virus.

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Won’t the fact that a lot of people will be staying away from work and kids being off school help to mitigate the worst effects of families mixing over Christmas? 

Very slightly off topic, but the other day I ended up looking at Finland on Google maps. It’s not surprising that the infection rate there is so low because everything is so spacious there compared with here in the north west where one town butts up against the next. Population density probably has a lot more to do with it than we think.

 

Bill :)

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Lockdown 1 and 2 haven't worked so let's try lockdown 3 but call it tiered lockdowns instead. Crazy.

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We were in tier 3 albeit only for a short while before the second lockdown Asp so the fact that we've moved back down must indicate that somethings working. Fingers crossed we don't have a another full lockdown after Christmas and that the vaccinations start to have some effect.

 

Bill :)

 

 

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I think the opening of pubs is a saner option than having them closed & why not let them stay open at least till 00 30 on New Year's Day. .At least in a pub there can be some sort of organisation & with the two main festive events of the year coming up ,pubs closing early will drive revellers into personal consumption in the streets ,probably bought from off licences or supermarkets, & more likely to form closer groups which could then become confrontational.

Of course, the ultimate sanction to allowing the public to socialise at Xmas is a question of personal & common sense ....shall i go out or stay at home ,adult choices for the public to make.

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I was thinking more in terms of the whole country Bill. Lockdowns obviously do not work, and these tiered lockdowns are just Parliament flailing about cluelessly and needing to be seen to be "doing something". I say Parliament because the whole lot of them are complicit.

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Dave, how many pubs have the internal space to provide social distancing for a load of blathered revellers ?   Asp, each lock down to date has resulted in a reduction in the "R" factor;  which then shoots up again as soon as they relax it.  The fundemental fact of life, is that the virus spreads from person to person;  and will continue to survive as long as we keep supplying ourselves as a host.     😷

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Obs, it's also a fundamental fact of life that we all die and this virus has a better than 99% survival rate. So why are we killing off people who don't have the virus?

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2 hours ago, asperity said:

Obs, it's also a fundamental fact of life that we all die and this virus has a better than 99% survival rate. So why are we killing off people who don't have the virus?

From www.actuaries.org.uk, the Mortality -Monitor update:

Using ONS death registrations to compare changes in excess mortality, it is what their organisation does!

Week 45  excess deaths (actual - expected) = 955 of which Covid-19 deaths were 1937

Week 46 excess deaths  (actual - expected) = 1422 of which Covid-19 deaths were 2466

So you can see that without covid-19 there would be lower than normal excess deaths not more as your question suggests.

From your first sentence, and given the latest actual infection fatality rates are 2.1% for 65-74 and 11% over 75, how do older folk get the 99% recovery rate you quote without the aid of a time machine?

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Per the Canadian medical profession :  covid 19 is the greatest single hoax perpetrated on the world ever !  My sentiments exactly.

There were 540,000 registered deaths in the U.K. in 2018, about a week ago the figure for 2020 up to the 16th of November was 418,000.  Strangely enough, when I look now, that figure seems to have disappeared, there does not appear to be an official website that will give numbers to date for 2020, they all edge around, giving weekly percentages etc.  One official website stated that "total deaths for 2020 MAY possibly exceed those of 2018"  !

The blue funk for this !   No wonder they can sell those slimming pills that work overnight !

Watch the blue funkers spin themselves into the ground on this !   I'm running out of exclamation points here !

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Asp

Lockdowns don’t work, but only if people don’t follow the rules or stubbornly refuse to believe the results. Truth is, we’ve never had a true Wuhan style lockdown, only compromise ones designed not to upset too many people. The measures that you say don’t work have moved the north west from having the highest R number to now the lowest in the UK and allowed Warrington restrictions to be eased. How would you explain that?

We have thousands of people dying here due to Covid every week and yet there are those who argue “So what, people die anyway”. If a jumbo jet crashed every single day here in the UK, would anyone dare say so what? Statistically, the numbers would be exactly the same as for Covid but would you fly if this was happening? I doubt it.

 

Bill :)

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Stalard 

There are millions of medical doctors throughout the word so there's always going to be a handful of wako's who believe in some kind of weird conspiracy theory. Fortunately, the medical profession has an infinitely greater number of intelligent professionals that understand the issues but they don't try to get their views sensationalised on wacky websites.

I'd prefer to believe the data provided by our official medical organisations rather than what some obscure wacko said.

 

Bill :)

 

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That's fine Bill, everyone is entitled to an opinion no matter how wrong it is !

Just joking, based on a recently deceased basketball coach at out local Lamar University.  Billy Tubbs was asked by the refs at the basketball game, to appeal to the Lamar crowd not to be so anti ref.  Billy went to the PA system and appealed to the fans to "Please don't give the refs a bad time no matter how bad their decisions are !".   He was thrown out of the game.

Emotions are emotions but facts are facts, there are probably a couple of dozen things more likely to kill you than covid19.

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Yep I know what your saying and for a nongolfer like me it just gives me the opportunity to stretch my mind and keyboard skills in replying. There’s room in this world for everyone to have an opinion, and old-style forums like this at least allows us to exchange views without trading the blows and insults that so often blight social media.

Never worry though, as long as there's my trademark smiley after my name, your assured that despite anything I might say, there are never any bad feelings.

 

Bill :)

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1 hour ago, Confused52 said:

From www.actuaries.org.uk, the Mortality -Monitor update:

Using ONS death registrations to compare changes in excess mortality, it is what their organisation does!

Week 45  excess deaths (actual - expected) = 955 of which Covid-19 deaths were 1937

Week 46 excess deaths  (actual - expected) = 1422 of which Covid-19 deaths were 2466

So you can see that without covid-19 there would be lower than normal excess deaths not more as your question suggests.

From your first sentence, and given the latest actual infection fatality rates are 2.1% for 65-74 and 11% over 75, how do older folk get the 99% recovery rate you quote without the aid of a time machine?

Firstly are the ONS Covid 19 deaths with or from Covid 19?

Secondly, in a normal year i.e. one without Covid 19 do you know what the fatality rates are for 65-74 year olds and over 75 year olds? I'm guessing that the fatality rates would be more or less the same. It should be obvious that the 99% recovery rate covers all age groups and is lower for old people than for the young and fit. The average age of Covid 19 deaths is over 80.

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1 hour ago, Stallard12 said:

Per the Canadian medical profession :  covid 19 is the greatest single hoax perpetrated on the world ever !  My sentiments exactly.

There were 540,000 registered deaths in the U.K. in 2018, about a week ago the figure for 2020 up to the 16th of November was 418,000.  Strangely enough, when I look now, that figure seems to have disappeared, there does not appear to be an official website that will give numbers to date for 2020, they all edge around, giving weekly percentages etc.  One official website stated that "total deaths for 2020 MAY possibly exceed those of 2018"  !

The blue funk for this !   No wonder they can sell those slimming pills that work overnight !

Watch the blue funkers spin themselves into the ground on this !   I'm running out of exclamation points here !

Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

and the data

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fmonthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales%2foctober2020/monthlymortalityanalysisoctober.xlsx

These are as official as it gets and the data link is just that, you make up your own mind what it means.

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

Asp

Lockdowns don’t work, but only if people don’t follow the rules or stubbornly refuse to believe the results. Truth is, we’ve never had a true Wuhan style lockdown, only compromise ones designed not to upset too many people. The measures that you say don’t work have moved the north west from having the highest R number to now the lowest in the UK and allowed Warrington restrictions to be eased. How would you explain that?

We have thousands of people dying here due to Covid every week and yet there are those who argue “So what, people die anyway”. If a jumbo jet crashed every single day here in the UK, would anyone dare say so what? Statistically, the numbers would be exactly the same as for Covid but would you fly if this was happening? I doubt it.

 

Bill :)

We haven't had a Wuhan style lockdown here because we don't execute people and hide the evidence from the world like the Chinese Communist Party does. How do you know if the R number wouldn't have dropped without the lockdowns, i.e. if we had carried on and just enforced hygeine and social distancing better? We will never know.

As for the crashing Jumbo jets analogy, in a normal day in this country the equivalent of THREE Jumbo jets full of people die. Yes, every day! Its just not reported on the same way that Covid is being reported, as if death was something that was unheard of until this year. Madness.

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