Lock Down II ?

[Bill]

According to how the app works, you need to be relatively close for a certain period of time so just passing someone less than two metres away shouldn't be a great risk but who knows? When we had the first lockdown, people did seem to put more effort into keeping their distance but now, most just pass by as normal with only the odd one making any visible effort to distance. 

I'm not so sure about the the largest risk being supermarkets, all the ones I've been in seem reasonable. Then again I'm shopping mid week during pensioner hours and maybe it's a different kettle of fish at the weekends. I'd have thought that continued spread would be more likely to be from those who are still working where it's easy to get complacent or from kids mixing at school. Then of course there's those who go out to protest against mask wearing and any other infringement of their civil liberties.

 

Bill  

[Stallard12]

I know the sofa hiders and herd immunity parrots will find some way to twist this, but these are straight facts.

Seven members of my outer family, cousins, nephews etc, have, at different times, tested positive for covid19, they are all in their seventies and none of them had any major discomfort.  In fact the only thing that pissed them off was having to sit twiddling their thumbs for fourteen days.

My sister-in-law is a registered nurse at a major hospital, she says that most people admitted as positive covid19 tests are only there because they panic and insist on being there, most go home the next day, the rest are people with multiple health issues.

Finally, I play golf every day with the old guys, we have a group of about twenty of us and we tee off in four man groups, for eighteen holes at 7:00am year round.  One of the regular guys, Dennis McDonald tested positive two weeks ago, he's 88 years old.  He called us a couple of times during that time, usually to say that he was bored.  This morning at 7:00am, after a negative test, Dennis teed off with us, played eighteen holes,made two birdies and scored 81 !

I have given you all these facts to support my case, anyone else on here is welcome to list all of their family members, friends and acquaintances who have died from covid19 so that we get the full picture.

With rheumatoid arthritis, I get up each morning feeling like crap and it takes me an hour and a couple of hydrocondone pills before I can tie my shoelaces, I bet I feel worse than any covid19 positive, but I don't expect anyone to call for a lockdown over it .  Come on people, stop wringing your hands over cases and get a full set of answers on deaths before you vote to end life as we know it.

[Bill]

I don’t know anybody that’s died of it but my drinking mate Pete, who’s the same age as me, had it right at the start of the outbreak and he was seriously ill for over two weeks. He said that it was the worst illness he’d ever experienced in his entire life. Thankfully, there were no lasting effects that we know of.

We all know that the vast majority of people can have the virus and not even know about it, and these are the very ones that represent the most risk of passing it on to others who may not be so lucky.

If we get a cold or flu, we stay off work, so we don’t end up spreading it, whereas with Covid19, feeling fine and carrying on regardless is the main mechanism for how the virus spreads.  

A point well demonstrated by Mr Trumps recent super-spreading episode.😂

 

Bill

[Confused52]

11 minutes ago, Bill said:

If we get a cold or flu, we stay off work, so we don’t end up spreading it, whereas with Covid19, feeling fine and carrying on regardless is the main mechanism for how the virus spreads.  

 

Bill

Exactly Bill. In evolutionary terms killing hosts is not a long term success characteristic for a virus to have.

[asperity]

As I've said before, if you aren't happy being somewhere - like a supermarket or market - where other people aren't keeping their distance then don't go there!!!!!!!!!!!!! Relying on the general public to care a damn for you or your health is plain daft.

[Stallard12]

Spreads to what Bill ?  More headlines, more hand wringing, more panic?  You're a clever guy Bill, if everyone on the planet had a cold for the rest of eternity, it would be inconvenient, but hardly the end of the world.  Which if we don't come to our senses, the 'cure' will be.

[Stallard12]

Confused, y'all  sure as hell have gotten yourself the darned pu'fect handle.

!

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Stallard12 said:

Confused, y'all  sure as hell have gotten yourself the darned pu'fect handle.

!

What I said about viruses is true, over the centuries they all mutate (that is evolve) to be less deadly to their host or they find a different host. No sentience is required for evolution to work it is just random mutation and chance encounters.

[Stallard12]

Confused, I knew the meaning of mutate when I was four years old, so forget the parenthesis please.  Your final sentence borders on gibberish, what on earth, in this context, does, ''sentience'  ( animals feeling or not feeling pain, or other of it's other weird meanings), just following your methodology, sorry.

 Confused is apt, cos at this moment I have no idea to which camp you belong - are you pro or anti lockdown?

Im guessing that you are a school teacher or such, not meant to be offensive, just an observation.  If I'm anywhere close, a bit of advice, your points valid or not, are diminished by your love affair with flowery language.

D +

[Observer II]

Looks like BoJo is going to relax covid restrictions over Xmas - so we can expect another spike in infections in the new year - the stupidity is endless.    😠

[Bill]

Well Stalard my good friend, it seems to me that you’re playing a bit of a game of Russian roulette having convinced yourself that the bullets aren’t real and wouldn’t hurt that much anyway. 😊 To be fair though, there’s just as much a split in opinion here as in the USA over how bad the virus is, however in the US it seems to have a lot more to do with politics than education. We both have very different takes on the matter, but that’s life isn’t it. Just think how boring it would be if we all thought the same, so keep your wacky comments coming.  

 

Bill

[asperity]

Obs, it seems to me that your solution is for us all to be locked down for ever more (except you will still want to go shopping every day to shops with no other customers). The stupidity is, indeed, endless.

[Observer II]

Errm nope -  I don't go shopping everyday, just food for the week; and just expect other people to maintain 2m distance.  The stupidity will be endless, as long as we keep relaxing and ignoring the scientific advice.  😷

[Bill]

My understanding of the advice was to wear a mask and try to maintain a two-metre distance. I’m fine with that, but it’s an advisory distance and the virus doesn’t suddenly stop at two metres. There’s always going to be times when it’s not possible to maintain that distance so for most people, common sense is the rule of the day. I understand that some people take the guidance more as a hard line limit that should never be crossed but with this virus, it’s probably more a case of how worried and vulnerable they feel rather than anything else so it’d be wrong to criticize.

We all have to get through this and making allowances for some variation in compliance is something we need to accept rather than get too upset about.

 

Bill

[asperity]

2 hours ago, Observer II said:

Errm nope -  I don't go shopping everyday, just food for the week; and just expect other people to maintain 2m distance.  The stupidity will be endless, as long as we keep relaxing and ignoring the scientific advice.  😷

If you expect other people to keep their distance from you just because you want them to it's no wonder you are disappointed. You should be endeavouring to keep whatever distance that you deem necessary from other people, but to expect other people to do what you want is unreasonable given that the distancing is in your hands. As I said before, if you aren't comfortable being in a shop because of other people being in the shop it's in your power to leave the shop, no more than that. Complaining on here that other people aren't behaving the way you would like isn't rational.

[Observer II]

I methodically maintain my distance from others,  however that doesn't stop them coming closer to you - this then requires a comment to them, which works with some, but not with the absolute planks, who don't even seem to know what your talking about.  And I'm not "complaining on here", I'm merely sharing my observations based on experience.   😷

[Confused52]

14 hours ago, Stallard12 said:

Confused, I knew the meaning of mutate when I was four years old, so forget the parenthesis please.  Your final sentence borders on gibberish, what on earth, in this context, does, ''sentience'  ( animals feeling or not feeling pain, or other of it's other weird meanings), just following your methodology, sorry.

 Confused is apt, cos at this moment I have no idea to which camp you belong - are you pro or anti lockdown?

Im guessing that you are a school teacher or such, not meant to be offensive, just an observation.  If I'm anywhere close, a bit of advice, your points valid or not, are diminished by your love affair with flowery language.

D +

Tough luck - your guess is way off. If my words mean that it is difficult it to pigeonhole me as pro or anti then I have delivered the words correctly. I don't want you to to assume you know what I meant to say. I want a discussion not a slanging match.  I used sentience in a wider sense to mean "to perceive or feel things" i.e.  to indicate life. I did that because, as you will no doubt tell me you know, viruses are not alive in the normal sense of the word and cannot react to anything with intent.

 

[Latchford Locks]

57 minutes ago, Observer II said:

I methodically maintain my distance from others,  however that doesn't stop them coming closer to you - this then requires a comment to them, which works with some, but not with the absolute planks, who don't even seem to know what your talking about.  And I'm not "complaining on here", I'm merely sharing my observations based on experience.   😷

Yes they are everywhere 😕

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

I methodically maintain my distance from others,  however that doesn't stop them coming closer to you - this then requires a comment to them, which works with some, but not with the absolute planks, who don't even seem to know what your talking about.  And I'm not "complaining on here", I'm merely sharing my observations based on experience.   😷

What Bill said about masks and less than 2m is correct. The Guidance tells us that where 2m is not possible we should stay at least 1m away and employ other mitigation such as face coverings. Visors, by the way, do not count as face coverings. The mitigation part is not usually explained well and it includes avoiding face to face situations. Face to back is not dangerous unless you are wearing a visor or closer than 1m.

I simply took from what you wrote that you did not like the complete disregard by some of the guidelines because they did not offer you the common courtesy of waiting for you to move from where they wanted to go next before diving in front of you. This, to my mind, is completely different to expecting them to do what you want because what you want is simply what the government guidance says they should do. 

Asp takes a contrary view that no one should be expected to do what they are supposed to. Or, maybe he just objects to you trying to tell others what to do. It seems that it is more likely the latter since he took me to task and accused me of wanting others to do as I say.

In my view, again, what we have is way short of being a lockdown. We are being asked to implement Social Distancing with some rigour and there are very few real restrictions so good compliance is needed. The Ferguson lockdown simulations assumed that only 50% would comply according to the report, so with better compliance less restrictions are needed and a lot of the economy is still open. I do not think that the evidence actually supports closing non-food retail but it certainly does support closing pubs, cafes and restaurants. I assume the shops are shut so the pubs can't say that they are being picked on again. The reality is that here in Warrington it is working, with R measurably falling from around 1.1 to under 0.9 since 26th October. It is wobbling a bit over the last three days. The way you measure it is by new cases and deaths tell you nothing about whether you are doing enough to reduce the infections. When I check the inferred R from case growth across English Local Authorities over the last week Warrington had the lowest effective R value anywhere. The real calculation of R is much more complicated, and I do not have the data needed to calculate that for anywhere. but the main message is that what we have now is working.

 

[Observer II]

Agree - the one Country in Europe that seems to have avoided the second spike is Finland, which they put down to a cultural preference for maintaining social distance. We on the other hand will be hugging and kissing for five days over Xmas; thus taking us back to square one.    😷

[Evil Sid]

I don't think i have ever hugged or kissed for five days over my whole life time......😭

A polite handshake or nod of the head and maybe a "merry christmas" muttered under duress with the tones of a "bah humbug" implied and that is about it really.

Scrooge is a party animal when it comes to christmas compared to me.....🤣

[asperity]

Christmas is something endured rather than enjoyed. Bah! Humbug! 🤣🤣🤣

[Observer II]

With most experts now criticising the Xmas lockdown relaxation, they will no doubt be in a position in the new year to say "we told you so".   However, the Gov is in a bit of a bind, as they've clearly identified that a large number of people will ignore lock down to enjoy their precious Xmas, come what may.   So the cycle looks certain to continue.   Meanwhile, they've noticed a 30,000 increase in non-covid deaths at home, which I guess we can put down to fear of entering Hospitals.   😷

[Davy51]

What is the state of play with Nightingale hospitals ? Are they full to busting or empty & gathering dust ?

[Bill]

Gathering dust thankfully, not that we’d have enough skilled people to man them if we did from what we’re told. Some argue they were a waste of money but I suppose you could use that argument for a spare tyre. I think we’ve been lucky to keep just under the point where they would have been needed.

 

Bill