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Dizzy

More bad weather.. and no local grit !!

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There is a government agency called The Met Office which is charged with providing long range forecasts so that organisations such as local councils (yes I know calling local councils "organised" is something of an oxymoron but......) can plan for the season ahead. So the Met Office, using it's multi million pound computer, forecast (wrongly for the third year running) a milder than average winter. DOH!!!! :roll::roll: No wonder there waas no stockpile of grit. You don't need grit in a winter heatwave :wink::wink:

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You don't normally need this much grit in a winter coldwave in Cheshire! AS I said before WBC would catch hell from certain of our number for keeping a stockpile of ten times the usual amount, wouldn't they? :wink:

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As usual you are right LP (a man's place is in the wrong :lol::lol: ) but my point is that if the Met Office was doing what the taxpayer is paying them to do, rather than pushing the Climate Change religion, then local government would perhaps be given the accurate information they require to make decisions about how much, or little, grit they need to stockpile. Other professional forecasting companies managed to call it right, but they didn't have the political agenda blindfolding them to reality. :wink::wink:

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Well, one of the indicators of global warming is the weather becoming more extreme and less predictable, so I don't see it getting an easier for them to be right about longterm forecasts.

 

We should just ask Wingy. He'll have some foolproof method involving a bit of seaweed and some bloomer elastic..... :wink:

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Well, one of the indicators of global warming is the weather becoming more extreme and less predictable, so I don't see it getting an easier for them to be right about longterm forecasts.

 

We should just ask Wingy. He'll have some foolproof method involving a bit of seaweed and some bloomer elastic..... :wink:

 

As I said other professional weather forecasting companies managed to forecast this weather, so it's not unpredictable!! Unfortunately the one that is used in this country is the one that always gets it wrong - our own taxpayer funded Met Office! :roll::roll:

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WeatherAction forecast a cold winter way back in July. AccuWeather also forecast a cold winter just as the Met Office was forecasting a mild one.

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On wash days me Mam had many ways of predicting the weather.

She'd be lay in bed with one of me uncles, and throw the covers back. If me uncles manhood was leaning to the left, she'd say it's gonna rain. If it was leaning to the right, she'd say, it's gonna snow.

If it was standing straight up, she'd say, oohh what the eck, who wants to do washing on a nice day like today anyway?

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WeatherAction forecast a cold winter way back in July. AccuWeather also forecast a cold winter just as the Met Office was forecasting a mild one.

 

And it was the Met Office who also said Warrington was in for more heavy snow last night, which was confirmed by the local TV weather forcasts (presumably as they rely on the Met Office advice) ...... and it didn't happen. So is there any point in checking the forecasts at all :?

 

Maybe Wingys mums way of weather prediction is better :lol::lol::lol:

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Doesn't get the washing done though :shock::shock::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Snow fall is much harder to predict then rain

 

I watched Poplars Ave being gritted, I think on Wednesday. There was snow on the street and the gritter had a shovel on the front but did not use it to move the snow aside

 

Now the snow has frozen and the gritter has not come out, the road is treacherous, much worse then roads that had not been gritted at all

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Letter to Gavin Esler BBC Presenter "Newsnight"

 

Letter from Piers Corbyn Msc (astrophysics), ARCS, FRAS, FRMetS, WeatherAction long range weather and climate forecaster. Excerpt:

 

Further to Newsnight tonight (7th Jan 2010) where the Met Office and BBC so-called expert lied about the reality of long-range forecasting:

 

We at WeatherAction predicted this very cold weather SIX months ago using solar activity (nothing to do with CO2) and added extra detail weeks ahead. Our forecasts of EXTREME events are consistently 85% reliable.

 

There is no need for the UK and Europe to be unprepared and run out of salt. The consequent suffering and road deaths are a direct consequence of the Met Office and BBC failed science and litany of lies.

 

Would the BBC care to hear from us as to why the Met Office fail, fail and fail again in medium and long range forecasting and when this cold weather will end and then return? I Suspect not. Would you care to consider the following -

 

1. The Met Office statement on Newsnight that they 'verify' their climate forecasts against past dates

 

2. That the said past data was fraudulently produced by, for example, the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and exposed in the CLIMATEGATE files..

 

3. It is therefore unsurprising that the Met Offices climate and season ahead forecasts fail fail and fail again. They are rooted in failed science and falsified data.

 

- The world has been cooling for at least 7 years while CO2 has been rising - contrary to their foreacst.

 

- The floody 'non barbecue' summers of 2007, 2008 and 2009 and the cold winter 08/09 and now 09/10 were ALL the opposite of the Met office forecast and ALL as predicted by WeatherAction months ahead. Met Office scored 0/5 and WeatherAction scored 5/5.

 

4. The failed Met Office forecast for this winter and the consequent unnecessary suffering and road deaths should be laid at the feet of the University of East Anglia, the Met Office and the BBC -- and charges of collective manslaughter be issued.

 

 

With acknowledgements to Greenie Watch :wink::wink:

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WeatherAction forecast a cold winter way back in July. AccuWeather also forecast a cold winter just as the Met Office was forecasting a mild one.

 

But until this cold snap, we had indeed had very mild weather. October, November and the first half of December were warmer than usual. Or if you're being terribly accurate and regarding winter as Dec 21 to March 21, then we're only 18 days in, so it's a bit early to judge - Feb might be tropical yet! :lol:

 

Told you Wingy would have something to contribute..... sometimes, it'd be nice to be wrong, eh :wink:

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LP why do I get the impression you are arguing for the sake of it? The idea of giving a weather forecast isn't to give a general impression (i.e. on average it's going to be mild) but to tell us what's going to happen (i.e. October and November are going to be mild but lookout in the second half of December and into January because you're going to be up to your necks in the freezing white stuff). Met Office has failed to do this and we are paying for that failure in more ways than one. Sorry. 8)8)8)

My job involves trying to interpret the garbage the Met Office gives out and, to be honest, in recent years I've found that they can't forecast their way out of a wet paper bag. :roll::roll:

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LP why do I get the impression you are arguing for the sake of it? The idea of giving a weather forecast isn't to give a general impression (i.e. on average it's going to be mild) but to tell us what's going to happen (i.e. October and November are going to be mild but lookout in the second half of December and into January because you're going to be up to your necks in the freezing white stuff). Met Office has failed to do this and we are paying for that failure in more ways than one. Sorry. 8)8)8)

My job involves trying to interpret the garbage the Met Office gives out and, to be honest, in recent years I've found that they can't forecast their way out of a wet paper bag. :roll::roll:

 

Long-range, it is impossible for anyone to tell you it's going to rain at 4pm on 15th June. Guesswork, that. Now factually, the met said mild, your lot said cold. Oct/Nov/Dec were warmer than usual so if we've had winter, the Met was right and your lot were wrong. If we've not had winter yet, how the bloody hell can you judge it yet? That's not me arguing for the sake of it - that's me refusing to accept your second hand opinions just because you have a wooden leg and an eyepatch and fancy yourself to be Nelson!

 

Come back in March and then we'll see whether it was a mild winter with a freak cold snap or the worst three months on record. I won't argue with you if you've got some facts! :roll:

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Seems to be warming up to me because the night before was ?12.5C and last night was only ?11C. 8):lol:

 

If you forget about science and the numbers and just look at nature then that probably gives a better picture of what?s happening. I?m no great gardener these days but many years ago and before all this talk of global warming I noticed that certain plants that traditionally would never to survive the winter were coming back again the following year. I think there?s much natural anecdotal evidence like this to support the warming trend providing like me you?ve lived long enough to be able to notice it.

 

All this my scientist is better than your scientist stuff only goes to prove that?s any long term forecast has to be taken with a very large pinch of salt. :lol:

 

Bill :)

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But what do you do if there is a shortage of salt? :wink:

 

don't have chips.... they're just not the same without salt!

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To understand the extent of the problem WBC has used 2000T of grit since 16th December, in a typical season November - April it uses just 1200T.

 

There are just two UK suppliers, Salt Union & Cleveland Potash, both of whom I understand have been working at full capacity since November.

 

In fairness to the Council, they have recognised that once this lot starts to thaw there will be drainage problems and a spate of new potholes.

 

As an aside, I notice in North America, petrol powered domestic/ commercial snow blowers are readily available at about ?700, if this sort of weather becomes a regular feature, I will be importing one to clear mine & my two neighbour's drives and the cul de sac where we live , ....and for a fee anybody else's drive etc. :wink::)

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To understand the extent of the problem WBC has used 2000T of grit since 16th December, in a typical season November - April it uses just 1200T.

 

I think we all realise that this has been a bit worse than usual and I'm sure the Council are doing the best they can but having read that it is actually the Highways Agency who are responsible for gritting all the 'A' roads and not the Local Authorities where exactly are the council spreading THEIR grit as nowhere seems to be any better. :evil: People in Lymm are saying they are virtually cut off from the rest of Warrington ... but that's not so bad :lol:

 

There are just two UK suppliers, Salt Union & Cleveland Potash, both of whom I understand have been working at full capacity since November.

 

Bet their profits will be high this year :wink:

 

In fairness to the Council, they have recognised that once this lot starts to thaw there will be drainage problems and a spate of new potholes.

 

:lol::lol: I'm sorry but that is the funniest thing I have read all week :lol:

I'm sure that WHEN it all starts to melt it will do so at a fairly slow rate so why on earth will it cause drainage problems :?:

As for potholes well I'd rather have to dodge a few of those rather than drive on untreated roads covered in compact frozen snow and ice :wink:

 

PS no point in clearing your drive if you can't get anywhere.. unless of course you can attach and heat up the air from your snow blower to clear the roads and melt the ice :wink::lol:

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Letter to Gavin Esler BBC Presenter "Newsnight"

 

Letter from Piers Corbyn Msc (astrophysics), ARCS, FRAS, FRMetS, WeatherAction long range weather and climate forecaster.

 

I think I'd need more thah Mr Corbyn's claims (as his business is in selling his forecasts) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn

 

"January: Serious winter weather.

Cold with very cold and bitter spells. Major snow

deluges and disruption. Some windy spells with

local floods in parts. Milder end to month."

 

But that was for last January, and it didn't really happen like that.

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Last January's weather:

 

http://tinyurl.com/yc83uwg

 

If Mr Corbyn's forecasts were no good he wouldn't be in business very long. :wink::wink:

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