Tier 3

[Observer II]

Manchester, a turd tier area; is reporting more covid cases going into hospitals now,  than in the first spike - perhaps the hospitals should give them two paracetomol and send them home ?    😷

[Confused52]

11 minutes ago, Observer II said:

Manchester, a turd tier area; is reporting more covid cases going into hospitals now,  than in the first spike - perhaps the hospitals should give them two paracetomol and send them home ?    😷

Silly, perhaps they should open the GMex/Nightingale because they are going to need it.

[Stallard12]

Hi Bill, Hope you're good, good to hear from you.  Don't get too close to me, you might catch something.  About time this forum was livened up !  Here I am to save it !

 

This is a virus just like the flu and cold, people are going to catch it, the important thing is what happens if you do catch it.   If you're a normal individual and you get the flu, you take normal medications and precautions and you get well.  If you are a sick person with multiple medical problems and you get the flu, you will probably end up in hospital and may die.  Sound familiar?

IT IS NOT THE BUBONIC PLAGUE !!

Im 81, and I see two doctors every three months, my GP for regular checks and my rheumatologist for RA, who is the finest and most knowledgeable physician ever.  I have asked them both to tell me honestly, if I catch this virus, will I die?  Both said emphatically no!   Their opinion was that normal healthy people have nothing to fear and should live a normal life with appropriate consideration to those (8%) who may have a problem.  

I ask you, is this a basis for ruining small businesses and for throwing 90% of the population into panic ?   The school teachers and local politicians of this world, who have never had to earn a profit based living want you to live under the sofa with you're hands over you're eyes, while the economic base of the country crumbles.  Amazingly to some, avoiding this is a dirty word !

Texas is thriving, all the kids are back in school, all the restaurants and bars are open and life is good - golf every day.   My wife and I drove to Louisiana to a major casino for a day out and it was great.  In deference to the 8% everyone had on a mask and everyone's temp was taken at the door.  Deaths are low in Texas and have not increased in a month. 

Here you go, hold onto your hats ! Maybe we are smarter in Texas than Europe !  Whoooa!

[Bill]

Hi Stalard. Yes I’m good thanks, a few more aches and pains these days but it’s to be expected. It’s interesting to see how different people have differing takes on the virus with some saying it’s nothing more than a different kind of flu while others as you say class it like the plague. As I see it, nobody’s actually right or wrong because it’s just their opinion of the risk and how it might affect them personally.

I have a brother who’s four years older than me. As far as I know he has no serious underlying health issues other than some mobility problems but he’s seriously worried and hardly ever leaves the house. To me, his actions seem a bit OTT but if it makes him feel safer then nobody should try to argue with that or to tell him he’s wrong.

The thing that makes this virus more worrying though is its unique ability to spread so quickly. Some reports suggest it spreads up to ten times faster than normal flu which if ignored would completely overwhelm our hospitals. Even with all the current measures, many of our hospitals are hitting critical capacity.

I could argue that Texas and Warrington are so different as to make comparisons somewhat meaningless. You guys have all the space in the world to move about but here in an old industrial town, everything is smaller and packed in tight making it difficult to avoid contact, which in turn only helps spread the virus. The hats in Texas are bigger but if the Texans were really smarter they’d understand this.  😉

Enjoy your day my good friend and let’s just hope this is soon over and we can return to some kind of normality.

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

 

Maybe Texas is not populated by the sort of folk that cause a rolling 7 day average new cases per day graph like this. It is the same scale and settings as previous graphs based on a population size equal to that of Warrington.(210014).

Oh and don't think that the little down turn is encouraging it is an artefact caused by late results, it is still shooting straight up.

[Stallard12]

Once again you are obsessed with 'cases'.  98% of 'cases' recover, most with minimal inconvenience.  If you feel the need, keep a check on deaths and more importantly on the circumstances of the deaths.  If you find thousands of twenty year olds dying, then I'll jump on the panic wagon with you.  More hospital facilities for the 2% may be required, that's a physical problem that can be solved with planning - field temporary hospitals if needed, but no reason to throw the world into a hand wringing panic spiral.

[Bill]

No I don’t believe I’m obsessed, my thoughts and actions are I think pretty normal. A recent UK poll showed only 15% thought the measures were a waste of time while 45% thought they didn’t go far enough, and the balance said measures were about right. So on that basis, I suppose I’m sitting in the middle.

As I said before, each individual makes up their own mind about the potential risk to themselves and of spreading the virus onto to others who have no choice in the matter. I believe I’m taking a responsible attitude although certainly not obsessive as I said to my mate in the pub last night.

 

Bill

 

[Stallard12]

Sorry Bill, I was replying to my friend Confused.   I agree that the world would be a better place without the virus, but I also contend that such things as lockdowns and deprivation of earnings are just not justified.   In Texas almost everybody wears a mask in any kind of company, all hives of activity such as casinos and DYI businesses do a temperature check on every person entering etc etc.  But at the end of the day, life must go on.  I ask the 'sofa hiders', what happens if this goes on for five years, you will probably emerge into a world as devastated as a nuclear winter.  Don't say it can't happen, Confused is already predicating doom - the cases are going up !!

I have started three successful engineering construction companies on two continents, if I would have had the comprehension and guts of the sofa people, once I saw the disaster that lay ahead, I would just have gone straight back to bed.  First piece of advice - don't watch the news, or get drunk first and then, when sober analyze the facts like an intelligent individual.

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Stallard12 said:

Once again you are obsessed with 'cases'.  98% of 'cases' recover, most with minimal inconvenience.  If you feel the need, keep a check on deaths and more importantly on the circumstances of the deaths.  If you find thousands of twenty year olds dying, then I'll jump on the panic wagon with you.  More hospital facilities for the 2% may be required, that's a physical problem that can be solved with planning - field temporary hospitals if needed, but no reason to throw the world into a hand wringing panic spiral.

I focus on cases for a good reason and don't focus on deaths. The value in this forum is sharing things with others, the important ability is to share facts because people need to be able to make their own minds up. There are no regular publications of the graph I showed in Warrington. The purpose of showing facts is, in present circumstances, to help people understand risk. If you think people should look after themselves they need an understanding of risk otherwise you are taking a paternalistic position in which to tell them what to do or effectively say they don't matter.

Risk to all of us is a function of the number of active cases. For each tested case the ONS data tells us there are four more the graph is an underestimate. The graph tells you that the risk in Warrington is twice that in England on average. When the ONS tell you that 1 in 180 are infected the graph tells you that in Warrington there are twice as many so 1 in 90 are infected (the media aren't clear but that includes asymptomatic cases). What people case now consider is that number of people they encounter in a trip to the supermarket and decide whether the risk for them means that they should go to a less busy expensive store or go to a big store less often. The official numbers lack perspective. 

People should also consider why the numbers are so high in the North West and why Warrington seems to exactly track the same path. What are we doing wrong. London is much better despite having higher percentages of immigrants, it isn't about immigrants.  Apart from the numbers of awkward squad present here I have no idea but I would love someone to come up with an idea!

Now the point about deaths, put simply dead people do not present a risk knowing how many or how old makes no difference to risk and nobody is informed to act better. Outrage is a poor emotion for improving behaviour.

I'm not panicking because I consider the risk of what I do using this data and the geographical distribution of cases. The secondary problem is that the hospital capacity is limited not by space but the number of staff and in particular the number who have to stay off work because they or family are ill. Case numbers determine that too not deaths. 

 

[Confused52]

6 minutes ago, Stallard12 said:

Sorry Bill, I was replying to my friend Confused.    Don't say it can't happen, Confused is already predicating doom - the cases are going up !!

I have started three successful engineering construction companies on two continents, if I would have had the comprehension and guts of the sofa people, once I saw the disaster that lay ahead, I would just have gone straight back to bed.  First piece of advice - don't watch the news, or get drunk first and then, when sober analyze the facts like an intelligent individual.

I am not predicting doom but trying to help all of us analyse real and relevant LOCAL facts and then act like intelligent individuals. People understand and interpret graphs better than tables of numbers but they don't get to see them. 

Dead people are not an ongoing risk whatever their age. I don't dwell on that.

[Evil Sid]

11 hours ago, Confused52 said:

Dead people are not an ongoing risk whatever their age.

Until the zombie apocalypse begins that is.....🧟‍♂️🧟‍♂️

[asperity]

So if I'm understanding the situation correctly, the rising number of people being admitted to hospital with Covid 19 have brought it on themselves by not wearing masks/poor hygeine/shopping in the wrong shops/travelling on public transport/not keeping their distance from other people/having parties in their houses every night/insert your favourite transgression here. In other words they deserve everything that's coming to them? Sounds like victim shaming to me unless I've missed some other nuance.

[Bill]

I doubt anyone believes that to be the case, not even you Asp.

I’d guess that the majority of people needing hospital treatment will be older or those with underlying conditions, i.e. the very people who would have tried their hardest to take measures to avoid ending up in there.

Personally, I think much of this is down to family contact as older people somehow think their close family represent a lessor risk than the general public, who are as we all know are all stupid. On two occasions recently, I’ve had to stop my wife offering to look after grandchildren that were off school due to someone in their class testing positive.

 

Bill

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

I doubt anyone believes that to be the case, not even you Asp.

I’d guess that the majority of people needing hospital treatment will be older or those with underlying conditions, i.e. the very people who would have tried their hardest to take measures to avoid ending up in there.

….

 

Bill

Exactly right Bill.

[asperity]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

I doubt anyone believes that to be the case, not even you Asp.

I’d guess that the majority of people needing hospital treatment will be older or those with underlying conditions, i.e. the very people who would have tried their hardest to take measures to avoid ending up in there.

Personally, I think much of this is down to family contact as older people somehow think their close family represent a lessor risk than the general public, who are as we all know are all stupid. On two occasions recently, I’ve had to stop my wife offering to look after grandchildren that were off school due to someone in their class testing positive.

 

Bill

That being the case, the people most at risk must be readily identifiable (older people, people with underlying conditions) and should be protected (locked up? I don't know). This will leave the other 95% or so of the population free to carry on with their lives. Of course this will mean that the vulnerable grumpies won't be allowed to wander around the Asda moaning about other people "putting them at risk" by not obeying the "rules", but hey we all have to make sacrifices in these troubled times right?

[Observer II]

Some "older people" live alone and don't have close relatives for support, so have to venture out to the S/Market etc to shop,  unless you want them to claim free (school)  meals.     😷

[Bill]

I’ve heard this argument before Asp and there is some logic behind it however old people are already easily identifiable, their old! So, let’s put that in the silly bin along with the idea of locking them up because that’s just never going to happen.  In any case, most of us sensible grumpies do our shopping during the week when there’s not too many other grumpies about so the food shop is a relatively low risk job.

I believe if all people were sensible, the majority should be able to carry on with heir lives much as they did before by just sticking to the few simple rules. Unfortunately, rules are not something the younger generation are willing to accept, especially when the rules come from a political party they didn’t vote for, and BTW I’m not just talking about just the kids here.

Anyway, it’s not the grumpies that are the problem, it’s the bloody numpties!  

 

Bill 😊

[Observer II]

Covidiots.     Seems the Police in Scotland, and no doubt elsewhere, are now spending most of their time breaking up parties being held by these young Neanderthals.   😷

[Bill]

We’re all old grumpies here Obs and we could go on forever saying stuff like that so much so that I think we could probably write a book on it. 😉

But for the sake of debate, I wonder if we could think up anything that might be genuinely beneficial in helping to reduce the virus? I’m sure we all have our own thoughts on how things could be done better so what would anyone like to see???

I’ll start it off with… Anyone deliberately walking past a hand sanitiser should be refused entry. Simple but so many just can’t be bothered.

 

Bill 😊

[Confused52]

1 hour ago, asperity said:

That being the case, the people most at risk must be readily identifiable (older people, people with underlying conditions) and should be protected (locked up? I don't know). This will leave the other 95% or so of the population free to carry on with their lives. Of course this will mean that the vulnerable grumpies won't be allowed to wander around the Asda moaning about other people "putting them at risk" by not obeying the "rules", but hey we all have to make sacrifices in these troubled times right?

SAGE call that proposition Segmentation;

Do read it and tell us what you think then https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928740/S0810_Summary_of_SAGE_advice_on_segmentation.pdf

 

 

[Evil Sid]

Been trying my self to get hold of a face shield.  I wear glasses and shopping or any activity wearing the standard face masks is nigh on impossible and every breath fogs the glasses up and so it is like shopping in a heavy mist. no matter what i have tried even some stuff that was for my skid lid didn't stop it.

Had to smile at the news report at one. showed a rather busy high street that was in tier 3 risk category and only two people seemed to be wearing a face mask as they pushed through the crowd...🤧

[Observer II]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

We’re all old grumpies here Obs and we could go on forever saying stuff like that so much so that I think we could probably write a book on it. 😉

But for the sake of debate, I wonder if we could think up anything that might be genuinely beneficial in helping to reduce the virus? I’m sure we all have our own thoughts on how things could be done better so what would anyone like to see???

I’ll start it off with… Anyone deliberately walking past a hand sanitiser should be refused entry. Simple but so many just can’t be bothered.

 

Bill 😊

The simple fact is Bill, that this virus is airbourne and is passed from person to person, severe that link and you cease to feed the virus. I know that's not entirely possible, but the basic rules about social distancing, face masks and hand washing, if practised, should reduce spread. Many of the "at risk" group have been shielding for over eight months, hence the reduction in covid deaths.   However, every time the Gov takes it's foot off the brake pedal, by allowing close gatherings in enclosed spaces, the "R" rate takes off.   Those youngsters who are deliberately trying to catch it with covid parties etc,  are in for a shock; as the evidence suggests there is no immunity and severe long term symtoms  are now becoming evident in some youngsters.  If the NHS is overloaded with covid cases, it can cause folk with other illnesses to miss treatment and even prove terminal to some patients.   😷

[Latchford Locks]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

😉

But for the sake of debate, I wonder if we could think up anything that might be genuinely beneficial in helping to reduce the virus? 

I’ll start it off with… Anyone deliberately walking past a hand sanitiser should be refused entry. Simple but so many just can’t be bothered.

 

Bill 😊

How about store security actually enforcing mask rule ...Not wearing a mask?.. then leave the store please.... simple.

At the moment they are looking the other way

No excuses or exceptions if you can't wear a mask get online and buy or family or friends to do it for you.

1 hour ago, Bill said:

 

 

[asperity]

1 hour ago, Observer II said:

Some "older people" live alone and don't have close relatives for support, so have to venture out to the S/Market etc to shop,  unless you want them to claim free (school)  meals.     😷

That describes me to a T, except I'm sensible enough to restrict my shopping trips to a minimum, go when it's quiet and I don't moan about what everyone else is doing or accuse them of trying to kill me.

[Observer II]

There are several cases of these Neanderthals being told by other members of the public for not wearing masks, who have then suffered an assault.   I only tell those idiots that I think I can handle, but in this age of smart phones evidence can be supplied to the Police.     😷