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Observer II

No petrol/diesel cars post 2035 !

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Baz said Companies are going to have to come up with a large family car that can fully charge in less than half an hour and have a range of about 500 miles per charge...

The companies will only make the cars that people want and more importantly can afford. On average, we only drive 20 miles a day (or a week in my case) so the current offerings with a typical range of 100-150 miles are acceptable and affordable so at the moment that's what they'll make. How far a car will go without refuelling is important but for most it’s not the primary consideration. Even the expensive Teslas only manage a about 350 miles, so one that does 500 would be so costly it probably wouldn’t sell.

As for the charging, as I’ve said before, I don’t think it’s quite the issue that some make out. Sure there’ll be some where an EV wouldn’t be suitable but there’s 15 years before you wont be able to buy a petrol car and probably another 15 years before those fall to bits. That’s a lot of time for things to evolve and change.

 

Bill :)

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This could mean a future for roll on roll off trains to get cars & passengers to regional hubs so the cars can be driven locally to that hub., otherwise a trip to St Ives  would mean 3 days travel each way.

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Driving to St Ives takes about 5.5 hours by car, call it 6 with a break and uses about £70 in petrol.

Even if you didn’t take your car, the train takes over 8 hours and costs between £150/£410 per person so a family trip would probably cost well over a £1,000 even off peak.

An electric car should do it in the same time as a normal car but only uses £13 of electricity and even if you had to stop twice to recharge, it’d still be quicker than the train.

 

Bill :)

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a lot depends on the distance that can be travelled using the electric car and the type of charger used. quite a few electric cars have a range of about 70 miles and a recharge time of up to 8 hours on a level 1 charge point.

so warrington to st ives could take you upwards of two days as you would have to stop five times to charge the car and be only able to drive it for about an hour at 70 mph.

a level 2 charger would cut this time down and some electric cars have a longer range but apart from the cost in fuel it would still take longer than the train time wise

(according to a route i looked at the train time varies between  8 and 12 hours depending on the time you travel.)

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If you didn't go all the way to St Ives by train but drove to, say, Birmingham and took the train from there to Bristol, driving the rest of the way the journey time would be reduced. But the cost of the train part would be quite large.

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Oh come on Sid, why take things down to the lowest common denominator. There are some cars (but not many) that are the mopeds of the electric car world with a 70-mile range but people who buy them know they’re just run-arounds. As for 8-hour charging, that’s only if you plug them into the three-pin socket at home which you can’t do on the motorways.

Leaving out the extremes, a more typical electric family car will beat the train every time, even with stops for a recharge and cost a fraction of the train price.

 

Bill :)

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It would probably have to be a government sponsored initiative to get traffic off roads for longer journeys with ,say, a nominal charge of the cost of a full tank of corresponding full tank of petrol or diesel for you ,car & passengers & trains could also charge your car battery. as you travel. I know the RO/RO system was tried once before on the railways & didn't take off but trying it these days would have the added bonus of offering a traffic jam free journey ,devoid of roadworks & such.

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Electric car.jpg

But people prefer to use personal transport so rather than trying to change what they want, why not do something that helps instead.

People are not going to pay £1000+ when they can do it for £13 and risk catching Corona virus on a crowded train.

 

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Charging time for a Volkswagen ID.3

The table below shows the estimated time to charge your Volkswagen ID.3 from empty to full. For rapid charging we show the time to charge from 20% - 80%, as charging tends to slow outside this range to protect the battery.

Charging method Typically found at Charging time* Range/hour**
Empty to full      
3-pin plug Home 21 h 9 m/h
3.7kW Home / Work 13 h 15 m/h
7kW Home / Work / Public Locations 7 h 29 m/h
22kW Work / Public Locations 7 h 29 m/h
20%-80%      
50kW Public Locations 40 min 101 m/30 min
150kW Public Locations 40 min 101 m/30 min


* Based on Pod Point estimates, charging rates can differ based on the ambient temperature, the state of the battery (e.g. empty or half full) and variation in charging rate.
** Range per hour is the number of miles you can expect to get from an hour of charging at the relevant rate.

That is provided you can find a public charge point to use.

you could also buy a decent rolls for less.

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So based on these figures, the car could probably get you to St Ives with just one pit stop assuming you start off fully charged. 

The upper figures are a bit academic because nobody would run a car down to the point where it conks out, well not if they have any sense and that's no different than with a petrol car. And when it comes to charging, you don't need to brim the battery especially if your in a rush, again much the same as you do with a normal car. Course the battery takes time to charge but that's not really a problem unless you stand there watching it. After a three hour drive though, I'd need at least a 40 min break but then I could just drive away rather than having to go queue for for petrol. 

Where we are now with this new technology is probably much the same as when petrol cars first appeared. I'm sure that they didn't go that far and there weren't that many places to fill up but the cars and the infrastructure got better and the same will happen with the electric vehicles. 

 

Bill :)

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I like your optimism Bill. I would point out that the batteries make up a large part of the value of these electric vehicles and my understanding is that the motor industry doesn't have a clue about what to do with the old ones that don't hold charge when they are replaced. They could just turn out to be the next chapter in the annals of unintended consequences. Similarly the motor industry has no idea where the extra generation capacity is coming from, it is just Someone Else's Problem - again.

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These are just technical issues that can and will be sorted out.

From what I understand, used batteries do have a value and several car makes have partnered with power companies to make use of them as backup storage that could help to eliminate the risk of blackouts. Depending on which website you look at it's either an environmental nightmare or a brilliant opportunity for the power industry. The neysayers would have you believe that there will be an enormous mountain of scrap cars,  all having different batteries and nobody has a clue about how to deal with them.  Others suggest all manufactures will take back their own used batteries and with their specific knowledge will fully understand how to reuse or recycle them. I'd like to think this second option is more likely to be adopted.

 

Bill :)

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20 minutes ago, Bill said:

These are just technical issues that can and will be sorted out.

From what I understand, used batteries do have a value and several car makes have partnered with power companies to make use of them as backup storage that could help to eliminate the risk of blackouts. Depending on which website you look at it's either an environmental nightmare or a brilliant opportunity for the power industry. The neysayers would have you believe that there will be an enormous mountain of scrap cars,  all having different batteries and nobody has a clue about how to deal with them.  Others suggest all manufactures will take back their own used batteries and with their specific knowledge will fully understand how to reuse or recycle them. I'd like to think this second option is more likely to be adopted.

 

Bill :)

Interesting but not what I have heard. The idea of using duff batteries to back up the grid sound like a risk National Grid couldn't afford to me. I will go with the naysayers until there is a regulatory solution that can be made to stick via the Construction and Use regulations or an equivalent.

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I wonder if a fast 40 minute charge will have dire consequences for a car battery. The worst thing you could ever do to a normal car battery was give it a fast charge.

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I’m not too sure about that Davey but a normal lead acid battery and lithium based one are two very different technologies. I know the lithium cells in mobiles are designed to be charged as quickly as possible for convenience while internal electronics regulates the charge to ensure battery life. That’s why you’ll never see trickle or high power chargers for phones.

The fast chargers are charging at the optimum safe rate for the battery and the only reason we have slow home chargers is down to the cost of the charging unit and how much power they can supply from a three-pin plug. Whether or not they’d last longer if you charged them slower, I don’t know.

As a matter of interest, formula 1 hybrid cars use a combination of lithium and special super capacitors that charge in a matter of seconds and I believe that this kind of technology will in the future find its way into our everyday cars.

 

Bill :)

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3 hours ago, Bill said:

I’m not too sure about that Davey but a normal lead acid battery and lithium based one are two very different technologies. I know the lithium cells in mobiles are designed to be charged as quickly as possible for convenience while internal electronics regulates the charge to ensure battery life. That’s why you’ll never see trickle or high power chargers for phones.

The fast chargers are charging at the optimum safe rate for the battery and the only reason we have slow home chargers is down to the cost of the charging unit and how much power they can supply from a three-pin plug. Whether or not they’d last longer if you charged them slower, I don’t know.

As a matter of interest, formula 1 hybrid cars use a combination of lithium and special super capacitors that charge in a matter of seconds and I believe that this kind of technology will in the future find its way into our everyday cars.

 

Bill :)

That's all well and good Bill, but how many hours use do they get out of their batteries before they need to change them? And of course Formula 1 teams aren't that bothered about cost.

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I don’t know how long a formula 1 battery lasts but you can bet it’s not measured in years. But the point I was trying to illustrate was that lithium batteries are significantly different to lead acid and can accept a much higher rates of charge. Most things in F1 are pushed to breaking point but they can’t afford things to fail so that’s where the super caps kick in, protecting the battery from sudden high current demands. F1 is a virtual testing ground for our future cars.

 

Bill :)

 

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On 2/4/2020 at 3:09 PM, Bill said:

I wouldn’t feel sorry for the younger generation Obs, we’re just leaving them with a bit of a challenge in their lives that I’m sure they’ll solve in time. I don’t blame my parents or grandparents for the pollution they passed onto me, it’s all just part of evolution.

The amount of dirty coal they must have burnt over a couple of lifetimes would have been tremendous and all done without ever hearing about carbon offsetting. So where has all that carbon gone?

I got a bit rattled last week when a report on www made Warrington out to be one of the worst places to live with talk about deadly toxins and abnormal death rates. The reality is I believe that our air is cleaner now than its ever been, certainly in the last hundred years. The smoke and smog’s that our predecessors generated are all gone but it still shows in the health statistics for those who lived through those times.

In short, we’re leaving the next generation with a much cleaner environment that we came into and that has to be a good thing.

 

Bill :)

I remember Warrington in 1950's it was smoggy sooty and smelt quite a bit,I used to get in from playing out on the canal bank or Grammar school playing fields and Mum made me take off the clothes I wore in the shed and change into clean ones before being allowed in the house ! Oh and I thought that was normal as everyone else was the same.

Plus I was a very happy (if dirty) child ;-)

 

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Thankfully we don't get the smogs that we used to . Modern technology & the rise in car ownership has given us traffic exhaust pollution instead.

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2 minutes ago, Davy51 said:

Thankfully we don't get the smogs that we used to . Modern technology & the rise in car ownership has given us traffic exhaust pollution instead.

Do you remember going to school with a scarf around your mouth,when you got there you had a black area on it where your mouth had been !

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Davy said 

Modern technology & the rise in car ownership has given us traffic exhaust pollution instead.

 

This should read. Modern technology has allowed a rise in car ownership with an overall reduction in exhaust pollution.

A single car from the sixties apparently produced more emissions than a whole fleet of modern vehicles and I'm not talking here about electric cars. It surprised me given the huge increase in the number of vehicles since then but check out what Mr Google has to say on the issue, I think you'll be surprised as well. I thought something didn't quite add up when the WWW article I mentioned said that wood burning stoves in Warrington produced four times the pollution of all the cars in the town. Interesting eh?

 

Bill :) 

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14 hours ago, Latchford Locks said:

Do you remember going to school with a scarf around your mouth,when you got there you had a black area on it where your mouth had been !

Eh lad i remember it well. We had proper pollution you could see when i were a lad,l well if your eyes weren't watering that is.. What they call pollution these days we used to call fresh air. But try telling that to the kids of today...🤧

I always thought that wood burning stoves were touted as THE thing to have, especially for the eco concious, save the (add whatever endangered species is currently on trend) trendies.

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Went to watch Warrington play in Oldham around 1960, hit a fog so bad that I just had to find the edge of the street and abandon my car.  Couldn't see to cross the street, had to feel for the curb with your toe - buses just left everywhere and you couldn't see them until you walked into one, slept in a pub that was letting people sleep on the tables !  Oh, the game was cancelled !

Dont know if it's changed, but a while ago I heard that a set of batteries lasts five years and replacement cost was $10,000 .  Maybe they're cheaper now.

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