A perfect storm -

[Confused52]

3 hours ago, Evil Sid said:

so if you need to be in contact with an infected person for at least fifteen  minutes why did the drivers have to quarantine themselves and why are the coaches undergoing a deep clean.

brize norton to arrowe park is 3 plus hours drive.

 

That has rather inverted the logic- for tracing purposes the WHO guidelines say that a person is treated as a close contact if they were in the same space for 15 minutes. That is not the minimum time needed, as one sneeze in your direction is enough to infect you. Rather even if you do not remember a sneeze or cough but you were in the space for that 15 minutes you are a close contact who should be monitored.

The quarantine of the drivers may not be strictly necessary if they were not close to the patients. For travel by aircraft the WHO close contact rule for this kind of virus is anyone who sat up to and including  two seats away from the infected person in any direction. Flight attendants who served them and anyone who came into contact with body fluids are taken as close contacts for tracing. This is apparently because the virus is spread by coughing and sneezing. It is not spread by recirculating air.

The quarantine of the drivers is a very sensible move using the precautionary principle the firm just got the government to pay the wages of four drivers for two weeks at a low time of the year for coach operations. A deep clean of the coaches is probably a very good move for brand purposes by the company and again the government are paying.

[Observer II]

Think there are now three cases in the UK; why the surprise if they are still allowing flights in from China or F/East, some sponsored by HMG.   

[asperity]

Stealers Wheel have released a revamped version of their classic song - "Stuck in the Wirral with Flu"

[Observer II]

Can't say I'm impressed to date with the response to this outbreak. 1) Although China has responded better than most Countries ever could, they were in denial for at least two weeks, when a lock down of the site of the outbreak could have contained further spread.  2)  Western Governments flying their own nationals back home, was idiotic, they should have been isolated in China.  3) The WHO response was clearly too slow; ALL flights to a from China should have been cancelled in the first stages of the outbreak.   

[asperity]

Every cloud has a silver lining. Due to a combination of Chinese New Year and the shut-down caused by the Coronavirus, pollution levels in China have dropped by around 50% and up to 70% in cases. The downside being that any manufacturing in the West that relies on Chinese manufactured components may be hit badly. Swings and roundabouts eh?

[Observer II]

Can't believe the degree of laxity being shown by HMG,  folk are still flying in from China, one got an uber taxi to A&E, before being found she had the virus and was isolated.  So the plane, the taxi and the A&E need a deep clean, and everyone she came into contact with should self isolate.   One problem seems to be that folk are contagious before they show symptoms, so the potential for rapid spread is huge. On the upside, it hasn't mutated yet and appears survivable for young, medically fit folk; just leaving the old and infirm to die; which will no doubt reduce the costs of elderly care in the future. Maybe that's the Gov plan ?

[Observer II]

The Chinese Gov has confined around 60 million people to their houses in an attempt to prevent contacts and viral spread.  Meanwhile, Public Health England is advising parents to keep sending their kids to school - in the event of an outbreak, affected cases will go to hospital, while the rest will self isolate, presumably with the rest of their families.  The experience of cruise ships, shows that any crowded environment facilitates spread.

[Observer II]

With the major risk of contagion resting with Health Staff; it would seem prudent for GPs for example to use skype, e-mail or the phone for consultations.  What is essential is that those who can, especially the old and infirm, self isolate; food and supplies being left at the door.  Those in work, who have to go out, need to keep their distance from others, which should rule out travel on crowded buses and trains,  attendance at all crowd venues  like football matches etc. There is no doubt that this will adversely affect the economy, but until a vaccine is produced, necessary in order to save lives.  To date it appears Governments have been chasing the problem rather than preempting it with draconian measures to restrict people and thus virus movement.

[Evil Sid]

Average deaths is about 600 deaths per year in the uk from "normal" flu (can be as high as 10,000 and in some years has been as high as 13,000)

so far there have less than 3,000 deaths from the corona virus world wide.

makes you wonder which one is the worst....🤔

 

[Observer II]

That's "at the moment" Sid;   we're now being told that some victims that survived infection have now caught it again,  so haven't developed an immunity; which poses a question on the viability of a vaccine.  The concern at the moment, isn't the death rate, but the rate of spread; if the virus mutates into a more lethal form; the high rate of spread will translate into a high death rate.  The 1918 flu pandemic killed over 50 million, in an age when folk weren't flying round the globe at the drop of a hat.

[asperity]

You really are a little ray of sunshine Obs.

And I'm a terrible liar 😂

[Bill]

From what I've read, the mortality rate is ten time higher for this virus so it has the potential to see off a lot of us oldies. 

One of the blokes I sit with in the pub is due to fly out today for a week in Tenerife. The others in our group said jokingly that he'd have to sit at another table for 14 days when he gets back but maybe they weren't joking. 

 

Bill

[asperity]

Tuberculosis is more of a worldwide threat than Coronavirus, but there's no great panic about it. From the WHO:

Key facts

• A total of 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018 (including 251 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS).
• In 2018, an estimated 10 million people fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide. 5.7 million men, 3.2 million women and 1.1 million children. There were cases in all countries and age groups. But TB is curable and preventable.
• In 2018, 1.1 million children fell ill with TB globally, and there were 205 000 child deaths due to TB (including among children with HIV). Child and adolescent TB is often overlooked by health providers and can be difficult to diagnose and treat.
• In 2018, the 30 high TB burden countries accounted for 87% of new TB cases. Eight countries account for two thirds of the total, with India leading the count, followed by, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa.
• Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) remains a public health crisis and a health security threat. WHO estimates that there were 484 000 new cases with resistance to rifampicin – the most effective first-line drug, of which 78% had MDR-TB.
• Globally, TB incidence is falling at about 2% per year. This needs to accelerate to a 4–5% annual decline to reach the 2020 milestones of the End TB Strategy.
• An estimated 58 million lives were saved through TB diagnosis and treatment between 2000 and 2018.
• Ending the TB epidemic by 2030 is among the health targets of the Sustainable Development Goals.

[Observer II]

"But TB  is curable and preventable".    

[asperity]

26 minutes ago, Observer II said:

"But TB  is curable and preventable".    

But "Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS). "

So the cure and prevention isn't so good.

[Observer II]

But better than coronavirus at the moment - 

[asperity]

Really?

[Confused52]

Asp for TB there are effective drugs which still work at the moment. Those that die tend to be in countries with governments that have not established effective healthcare systems or cannot afford even those drugs. Corona virus has no working drugs to fight it at all. We are helpless against it and until a vaccine is made available, which is unlikely to be this year. there will be no mitigation at all against it death toll on the elderly and infirm. In the mean time the measures used to delay the spread will cause enormous damage to the economy of those countries with effective health care systems.. How does one decide which is worse?

[asperity]

Confused, Israel claim to be within weeks of getting a vaccine ready:

https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/israeli-scientists-claim-to-be-weeks-away-from-coronavirus-vaccine/

[asperity]

Up to date state of play:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Observer II]

The purpose of a vaccine is to stimulate the immune system to produce the antibodies to counter the virus;  in an infected person who survives, one expects that this will occur naturally, so no reinfection would occur. However, this has now happened, where re-infection has occured;  in which case will a vaccine work ?   Governments have been operating behind the curve; starting with China, who went into denial when first warned by a doctor; the political priority was to save face and it lost them at least two weeks , if not more, in locking down the source of the outbreak.  This was later compounded by Governments accepting flights from China, and indeed arranging their own to move their own Nationals home.  China may be the second biggest economy in the world, but it's public health standards appear wanting, with a primitive food preparation system and a population not averse to eating any animal from the wild.

[asperity]

Yes, China's public health and food preparation standards are killing its population at such a rate that it only rose by 5.5million in the last 12 months. At this rate the Chinese will have all died off by..................................................................never?

[Observer II]

Errm, nope - that's the suspected initial cause. China has now banned the eating of all wild animals. Must say Asp, your taking complacency to new levels !

[Evil Sid]

on the plus side if you ever need to get to the front of a queue just give a good cough and say "sorry it wasn't this bad when i came back from china"...😯

[asperity]

Obs, if by complacency you mean "not running round like a headless chicken shouting "we're doomed, doomed I tell you. We're all going to die"" then yes, you may have a point 🤣.