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Observer II

So, how will it pan out ?

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Seems the battle lines are now clearly drawn in Parliament, between Remainers and Leavers. On one side, we have a Gov, with a wafer thin majority threatened with a vote of no-confidence, if they allow the will of the people and of Parliament (in legislating for article 50), to occur on 31st Oct.   On the other, we have a rabble of conflicting egos, determined to renege on their commitment to article 50, in the belief they can agree on anything together. Perhaps BoJo will call an election for 1st Nov, which should allow Brexit on 31st Oct, while they are all out campaigning ? !

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Jezza really does wear a coat of many colours.  Whichever gets him closer to number 10 ,the man appears to have no principles.

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So if there is a no confidence win then the current government will have to be dissolved or a general election be called. similarly a vote of confidence in the  next mob must be passed within 14 days or else there must be a general election.

If the no confidence vote is defeated then another opposition member can again call for a vote of no confidence ad nauseum or until they run out of opposition members willing to risk a win.

Even if there is a vote of no confidence then there is a precedence to call into question the validity of that vote on the grounds of misleading information supplied to the voters. (as claimed by brexiteers and remoaners)

Seems our Mr Corbyn just wants to able to say he has been the prime minister and is prepared to use any tactics to achieve that aim

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LibDems: Brexit is the biggest existential threat this country has ever known and we must do all we can to defeat it. We need a government of national unity, right now.

Jeremy Corbyn: I agree, and as leader of Her Majety’s Loyal Opposition (snigger) I will step forward to lead that GNU and ensure no deal Brexit doesn’t happen.

LibDems: Its not that big a threat.

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There is a suggestion now that Ken Clark & Harriet Harman could lead a unity government ,eagerly supported by the publicity hungry Ms Swinson.

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Politician: - They type of person who can stab you in the back whilst looking you in the face.🕵️‍♀️

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So operation scare monger is still in full swing, with a continuation of the speculation advanced by the Cameron Gov prior to the referendum - which didn't impress the majority.  Yes, a no deal will cause disruption, but it's the job of Gov to overcome it and move on. In the new scenario it will be in the interest of both the UK and EU to rectify adverse effects that will hit them both - so pragmatism will out.

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Looks on the face of it, that Boris is now trapped -  If he complies with the Law (the Benn Act)  he will have to beg the EU for an extension, which they'll no doubt grant.   Any "deal" he does come up with, will be voted down by a Parliament, now clearly committed to Remaining in the EU.  If they get their "second referendum" we can be sure it will be slanted in favour of Remain and they are refusing any chance of them being evicted prior to that, by not allowing a G/Election. 

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Is their any part of that law that says how long an extension he has to ask for?

For example could he ask for a one day  extension, which would comply with the law but only change the leave date to nov 1st the day after it is currently set for.(or he could ask for it to fall on November 5th )🧨

If the EU grant it it will change nothing and if they don't grant it it will change nothing apart from Boris being able to say he complied with the law.

If we do have a second referendum then we can surely challenge the results of that result using the same arguments that have been used to challenge the 2016 referendum result. Could be the best soap opera since Brookside was cancelled.:roll:

If there is an election any politician knocking on my door had better be prepared for an in depth conversation on his/her future actions in parliament, with a specific slant on how they are going to reduce their pay and expenses. To my mind this current lot are not only unfit for purpose but are being paid handsomely to be that way.

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No fear of politicians knocking on your door nowadays Sid;  it's all done on phone banks; they amass data on who will vote for them  then ensure they turn out to vote; no arguing , no debate; just a case of turning out their vote;  under FPTP this has allowed them to ignore the divided majority against them.

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Sid,

The answer to your question is that the EU Withdrawal (No2) Act 2019 requires the Prime Minister to write "...  a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020" He has no leeway.

If the EU agree to extend to 31/1/2020 the Act requires that he immediately accept. If they offer a different date he must accept it within two days unless by the end of the period the house of commons have decide not to approve the date.

Then there is the mistake:  "Nothing in this section shall prevent the Prime Minister from agreeing to an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union otherwise than in accordance with this section." . What that means is that the EU could offer a delay of just one hour and Boris could accept that without delay and the UK would leave the EU on 31st October  with no deal. The reality though is that it is now the EU that is in control which is why Boris calls it the name that the lefties objected to. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Observer II said:

No fear of politicians knocking on your door nowadays Sid;  it's all done on phone banks; they amass data on who will vote for them  then ensure they turn out to vote; no arguing , no debate; just a case of turning out their vote;  under FPTP this has allowed them to ignore the divided majority against them.

And in the case of the South Warrington MP ...I watched an elderly lady walking back and too today (or was it yesterday) past our house quite a few times looking at door numbers and somewhat confused.  She had a small pile of white envelopes in her hand.  I'm guessing shes the one who hand delivered an personally addressed letter to our son through our letterbox which I found later on.  Very nice of him and her but hang on WHERE are mine and Mr Dizzy's.  We didn't get one and we actually live here ....our son doesn't live here any more and even their electoral register 'please check' form delivered months ago didn't have his name at our address anymore.   I guess they must be just targeting the younger generation ?? 

Gawd if they can't even keep up with who's living where for voting and targeting purposes when it's on their own councils system there really is no hope for them doing anything :blink: 

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Like business, Political Parties have and are amassing data on the electorate, in order to target propaganda at those who will definately vote for them.   That why they couldn't care less about those who threaten not to vote again, as this just makes it easier for them to win.  Politics is no longer about trying to convince voters of your argument, just about getting their vote out.  This allows, in the case of Labour, for the Islington elite to pursue policies alien to the majority of their one time core supporters..

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You're right Obs, it's a terrible world, but I think I've found the answer.   I live out in the country about an hours drive to the closest town.  If I play my golf every day, drink a few cocktails with the guys and have steak lunch in the grill, take a nap in the afternoon, never watch the news, never read a paper and only read the jokes on the forum, I wouldn't worry about a thing.  Maybe all the stress about the state of the world is self imposed.  

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