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Everything posted by Confused52

  1. He is trying to impose lower restrictions to get the numbers down so as to prevent a more draconian approach. Leicester left it too late but the chap in Blackburn appears to be more competent.
  2. All's well that ends well. Glad you are ok.
  3. Gary, I am sorry to say that it may be a while until you get that evidence. Using the Death Registration data from ONS up to 26th June Warrington had 108.1 deaths per 100k population with Covid19 on the death certificate in all locations (Hospital, Care Home, Home and the ubiquitous Other). The highest rate in the North West was 142.7 in South Lakeland. The best rate was 42.7 in Ribble Valley. I always check these claims about how good Warrington is. it is worrying that they suggested they could provide it. Places with lower rates include some of our close neighbours so if they still make the claim ask for the basis on which they make it! I have not provided the data because as Asp says, it is not a competition. If you want the numbers in order to seek truth I will happily provide them direct.
  4. ….. and the new data... The counts shown are historical seven day rolling averages of new-cases (positive-tests) per day, this is more useful than actual daily counts and is what the government use too. There are three sets of geographical area data, (in Red) Warrington, (in Green) North-West region and (in Blue) England. The counts for the North West and England are adjusted to be the number of cases that would have been found on average in a population equal to the size of Warrington. That makes the height of the curves at any given date comparable one with an other. The solid colour lines are the new set of numbers issued at the end of last week by Public Health England and include cases in Pillar 1 (Patients and staff in Hospitals and Care Homes tested at PHE labs) and Pillar 2 all other tests done for the NHS by none PHE-run labs (the new super-labs). The dotted lines of the same colour are the old figures released before the end of last week with only Pillar 1 cases included. Until the arguments about Leicester the gap between the actual cases and the published figures were hidden from the view of the public. In assessing risk it is also worth remembering that the latest ONS infection survey of showed that four out of five people who tested positive were not showing symptoms on the day they were tested. The source of all of this data is Public Health England and the ONS, all of it is public data.
  5. These days folks do not answer calls from numbers they don't recognise. If anything the ignore rate is even higher on fixed lines. Is it proper to call that a failure?
  6. The problem is that Apple will not allow the relevant Bluetooth LE API in the background. The NHSX app tried to force it to work for short periods in the foreground to conserve power but it seems that it missed contacts with all the switching on and off. It works ok on Android but Apple are notoriously bloody minded about helping out governments. Making it not work is a commercial choice by Apple. They do let it work in their own app but that doesn't know what the other phone detected is whereas the NHS app did. That means the NHS app could work out how far away you were and the Apple-Google one cannot. So the NHS can't ask people to self isolate based on inaccurate data from the Apple app but apple won't let the accurate version work because it isn't under their control. I think blaming HMG for the lack of public spirited behaviour by Apple is blaming the wrong party. Apple have lot of form on poor performance in many areas associated with public service even if the User Interface is nice, they always go for form over function. I have never bought anything they make and never will.
  7. Herd Immunity is a general term in epidemiology and it can be achieved as I said, look it up. I does not have the single connotation which you are trying to ascribe in order to confer blame, if that is indeed what you are doing. The project to track the virus only works because it mutates, what I disagreed with was that they don't know, that assertion of lack of knowledge is what was false. This virus like all RNA viruses is mutating and it is being watched like a hawk while it does so. The word is that nothing so far undermines the vaccine designs, but it could.
  8. Well you keep giving it the wrong name. Your claim that they pursued a plan of herd immunity by infection was and remains false. You failed to link the infectivity with high mortality and extended hospital stays which is what makes it so dangerous. You also claimed that they didn't know whether the virus is mutating, which is also false. That is much blunter than I wanted to be, but you asked.
  9. Obs, This virus (not called Corvid 19) is the worst combination of infectivity and death rate since the Spanish Flu. It is a unique threat since the population is 100% susceptible to it. That level of susceptible population hoes not happen at all most years. Its effect on patients and the rate of hospitalisation along with the duration of treatment almost overwhelmed the NHS, even with augmentation from the military and private hospitals. That we escaped the NHS from being overwhelmed was because the average number actually affected has only been under 7% but that low rate is solely because of lockdown. No one ever, it is in the minutes of SAGE, toyed with letting the infection rage until herd immunity was established. However with a global pandemic the only way it actually goes away is by herd immunity generated by immunisation or infection. Sage have always said they prefer the immunisation route. The tests for the virus in the PHE labs use an RNA replication technique to amplify the concentration before testing. That allows the RNA to be sequenced and there is a project that has been doing just that from the start. It has demonstrated that there were over 1300 different importations starting this epidemic. The reality is that theyare tracking the virus mutations very carefully and using them to track the relationship between cases.
  10. All of those services are subject to massive state intervention and amount to little more than outsourcing of labour with full government control. I am sorry but your conclusion is unsubstantiated and the reality actually supports Stallard, All of the problems on the railways have at their heart the too big/important to fail catch which means that non-performance as a business does not cause the business to close and the staff just get TUPE'd. That is why they perform so poorly.
  11. Why do you never make things sound like a bonus in that case?!!!
  12. The peak of cases in Warrington was therefore higher than London and the count per day was above that of London from the 6th of April to today. No-one has given an explanation.
  13. and the graph for data up to Thursday sample dates using data supplied by PHE on Sat 6/6/20, the numbers are the 7 day rolling average of new positive tests. Note this is exactly the same data as shown in the deckzero page but including later data available since their capture. The significant point is that this data, the data used by deckzero, is incompatible with their conclusion that the Rt is 04. If the Rt was less than 0.5 the number of new cases would be falling by half in the average period to symptoms and a test which is likely to be seven days. The fact is that the curve is trending up which is incompatible with an overall R value of less than 0.5. There is no way of actually calculating an R value from this data but it being close to 1 is way more likely than it being much lower at 0.4. The message given out by WBC is dangerous, we need to continue being vigilant. The often cited Cambridge data only gives regional values for a reason, you cannot calculate R for an area as small as Warrington because the numbers and data are inadequate. The Cambridge data is from a model of mobility and infection rates from PHE. It is good that Gary was more cautious than the WG in his wording but WBC need talking to.
  14. No they said he "might" have committed an offence for which they would have not given a fine if he had just gone back to the farm, which he did anyway. The regulations allow a police office to consider anything reasonable at the time and since that did not arise they cannot say what would have happened. The BBC said he did commit an offence when they were reporting on the first break of the story from the Telegraph. However they change the wording when they got hold of the actual press release from Durham Police. The BBC were only to too happy to repeat the did line as an unconfirmed story from the Telegraph!
  15. The attacks from the media are what has caused the damage, people seem to have been told by the BBC in particular that they should be questioning whether they should follow the rules when Cummings didn't. The problem is that Cummings didn't break the law or risk spreading the virus, All of the evidence from the media that he did appears to have been fake. We have to remember that Cummings wants to get rid of the licence fee so the BBC is not neutral is this. They were desperate to get rid of him but their tactic may well have now got the potential to cause local second waves. The pictures at the weekend and the significantly less careful behaviour in shops since the weekend suggest that the public is responding to the repeated calls of easing by the media. They should have reported it as minor changes for some people and ignored Cummings to protect the public. They have put their own corporate fortunes ahead of the public interest and I wonder if they will be made to pay. Suggesting that Cummings wrote the Health regulations rather than it being the job of a civil servant in the health department is an interesting stretch. I for one suspect he didn't write it but did read it as the law assumes that we all have. The problem remains that the broadcaster's summary of the actual situation with conflation of regulations and guidance is all most people ever heard. No wonder they are easily manipulated!
  16. An alternative is here: https://www.accuracyproject.org/pinchdash.html It claims the answer is 1/16 teaspoon. A teaspoon is about 5ml, ask a pharmacist if unsure. The density of Fine Table Salt is 1378 kg/cubic metre (https://www.powderhandling.com.au/bulk-density-chart/) So 5/16 ml = 0.3215*0.001 litres=0.0003125 * 0.001 cu metres= 0.0000003125 cu m Which has a weight of 0.0000003125*1378 kg = 0.000430625‬ kg = 0.430625‬ grams or approx. 0.0151898 Avoirdupois Ounce (1/66 of an ounce!) But of course you take this stuff you find on the Internet with a pinch of salt.
  17. The problem may be that the so called "public" don't like the fact that they think the rules that mattered were not the actual regulations, which they had not read, but what they were told they were by the media. They are annoyed by the media stories but cannot tell truth from fiction.
  18. New graph same data source and layout but nine days later than the last one on this thread.
  19. The more I think about this business the more furious I get. Boris announces all retail is to open on 15th June and they carry on asking about Cummings. If the BBC don't apologise soon I want it shut down!!!
  20. The later questions in the conference were truly appalling and essentially aimed at promoting rule breaking by the public at large. Why, because feigning outrage is the only way they can justify the utterly appalling abuse with all the media preferring to believe their own version of events compared to what was said by the PM and later Cummings. In my view the worst of all were the BBC who claim to be the bastion of truth whilst effectively running a vile campaign of hate based on nothing more than editorial opinion. The broadcast media have worked themselves up into a frenzy in an attempt to discredit Cummings and by association the Government. This has been nothing short of seditious tripe.
  21. It appears that the BBC have now contracted Cummings Derangement Syndrome.
  22. Perhaps they are carrying freight in the hold as normal, and returning nationals of their destination country.
  23. Asp, it appears you need to be quite careful with what get repeated from the press: From the Independent... "But it (Sweden) has now recorded 6.25 deaths per million inhabitants per day in a rolling seven-day average between 12 May and 19 May, according to Ourworldindata.org. This was the highest in Europe and just above the UK, which had 5.75 deaths per million and ahead of the United States, at 4.17." See what he did there he quoted rate, i.e per day (using a seven day rolling average). Their total is way down still as you would expect in such a sparsely populated country. Obs described it as per capita death rate but it was actually " per million inhabitants per day " - very different.
  24. Wishful thinking and don't call me a Tory or associate me with Piers Corbyn, I don't do weather forecasts.
  25. Sorry Obs but that assertion is historically incorrect. The primary responsibility of the state is do those things that citizens cannot do for themselves. The usual first example is national security as in the defence of the realm. The second function is the maintenance of the Queen's Peace though the administration of justice. Those were the first two functions implemented in England; the implementation of everything else was a modern addition. The idea that everything is or should be in the overall control of the state is the view of those who believe in communism. This country is not based on that view
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