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Confused52 last won the day on March 14

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About Confused52

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  1. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    Bercow blocks meaningful vote three, thinking the PM will ask for an extension that is up to two years by which time Brexit will be overturned by a second referendum. This really is the elite sticking two fingers up to the public and is said to be a constitutional crisis. May has to ask for an extension (but she doesn't have a reason) because Parliament told her to, but she doesn't have to put the deal forwards again and if she doesn't the EU and Bercow would be responsible for a hard Brexit. I guess the EU will blink but Bercow remains a problem.
  2. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    That is intriguing. I have searched the consolidated text of the EU treaties after incorporating the Lisbon Treaty ( which can be found Here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/228848/7310.pdf) and the string 2021 does not appear anywhere in the 336 pages. I wonder if you can remember where to picked this up from. Some newspapers have suggested that the issue with 2021 is the budget framework and the reason the EU wants to make us pay our budget contributions up to 2020 is to not cancel regional aid programmes that are committed in the current budget round. The next Multiannual Financial Framework runs from 2021 to 2027 and has to take account of the loss of UK net contributions which will cut 5% of CAP and Cohesion Fund spending as well as reduction in the number of programmes. The new budget is not actually the consequence of Lisbon and I would like to understand the issue.
  3. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    Obs, I am also aware of your opinion on Atlee's policies and in particular Nationalisation. I regard that as wrong headed and if you think tribalism is dead you will be disappointed at the WBC elections and the next General Election. Too many voters do not take it seriously enough to do otherwise. I have seen too many versions of new politics turn to dust.
  4. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    Yes I know your opinion on the matter. But the point Davy raised was about a second referendum, your response did not address that point to which I was responding. Secondly anything that Corbyn wants should set off alarm bells and be avoided by anyone who is a democrat and wants to protect his country from ruinous a Leninist catastrophe. Another General Election where everyone votes for the parties their Grandad supported based on the policies of Keir Hardie, Clement Atlee and Vladimir Lenin is the last thing we need.
  5. Confused52

    Schools ?

  6. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    For the avoidance of doubt I am not in favour of holding another referendum on ANY subject whatever other than council tax levels. However the rules do permit one or more questions and at least two answers to each question. The situation you describe could be addressed by offering multiple responses to a question of what you would like to happen using ranking of choices with a Single Transferable Vote between propositions. This would require each proposition to be counted as first, second or third choice for each vote and the total number of 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices to be counted (for the explanation I limited it to three but it could be more if they could be clearly fitted onto a ballot paper in an understandable fashion). The winning proposition is them found by setting a margin by which a proposition must beat others and then comparing, in turn, the 1st choices, 1st and 2nd choices taken together, then 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices taken together as needed until one proposition wins by the chosen margin. If no proposition wins by the relevant margin there is no preference and the Government should have made clear what it will do it the act that establishes the margin. I think it could handle up to four choices easily enough but the various camps may still not be grown up enough to do it properly. However STV does allow you to get a clear answer. In some versions you eliminate the lowest scoring proposition at each vote transfer which mean that by the last transfer there may only be two propositions left and the preference count heavily. The voting system is specified in the Act for the referendum and you can engineer a solid result if you have that default choice.
  7. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    Do you have something particular in mind? The Treaty of Lisbon came into force on the 1st December 2009 and there has been no further change to the treaties since of which I am aware. There will need to be technical changes if and when we leave to adjust majority voting weights and numbers of parliamentary seats but they will probably by Council Decisions or the like which do not require treaty changes. I don't think it matters how long the delay is other than diluting the will of the public and relieving the burden of change of the EU budget contributions. They will still need to start spending less as soon as they can.
  8. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    So what do you think of Labour's refusal to support a motion that proposes a second referendum on today's commons order paper. Why don't I hear shouts of duplicitous this or that?
  9. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    I suspect that would be evading the payment of import duty, that is to say smuggling. The purpose of this duty is to protect British farmers and the victim that it will hurt most is Ireland, however that is pretty much their own fault for their intransigence and they have already asked the EU for a bale-out just in case. The EU may not be so keen on paying if they are not going to get as much money. They aren't going as far as they could, such as a £100+ surcharge on every container going from the Continent to Ireland via the UK where the transport firm does not have its head office in the UK, lets see how fast they can build new ports. Of course the mitigation that is cheapest is to give the haulage jobs to British firms and save all the expense and increase the income tax receipts at the same time.
  10. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    Nothing at all but there could be a shortage as the Irish products are substituted and the price will go up. Spoons can then go back to the full range which they had before changing to an Irish wholesale supplier. Tim Martin will be overjoyed don't you think?
  11. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    But the main Irish exports of food are to GB and not just NI. Imports into GB will attract a tariff. Wetherspoons will need to change back British steaks for example. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/proposed-tariff-regime-would-be-disastrous-for-irish-food-exports-1.3824084
  12. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    Asp, Are you sure about that? My understanding is that there will be no border checks but there is a tariff on the agricultural products that the Irish export to us. There will also be tariffs on NI products going to the Republic. So there will be more demand for NI products and an increase in the price of some products in the UK by applying tariffs to EU products. For that reason Farmers in the Republic need to complain to the Irish government.
  13. Confused52

    Deal or No Deal ?

    For the last time the Good Friday Agreement does not call for No Hard Border, just that we don't have troops on it. This crap that MPs are debating is really annoying, they are all paid far too much to be this thick!
  14. Confused52

    The thin end of the wedge

    Ah, I've just seen the spoof of what happens after Brexit from the same source. I particularly liked the effect on Owen Jones, Guardian readers and BBC staff. Less keen on the nuclear war footage!
  15. Confused52

    The thin end of the wedge

    Doesn't diversity permit exactly the opposite of what you said?